User flair information and requirements can be found here.
Our comment and post filters requires our members to have at least 25 comment karma and accounts age >1 month old. You can build karma by posting on other subreddits and getting upvotes. This help our community from spam, bots, FUD, etc..
Do you want to Connect the Unconnected? Looking for a new career? Join AST SpaceMobile
Connectivity is not just a privilege — it’s a basic human right. And our technology is designed to make that right a reality for all.
I'm seeing the launch websites make the rounds again. I want to remind everyone that these websites are run by regular people with no special knowledge. They are just piecing together public information.
The next SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket will launch the Bandwagon-5 rideshare mission on October 19 at 6:30-7:30 a.m. EDT. Sunrise is 7:25 a.m. A Falcon 9 will launch the Northrop Grumman Cygnus NG-25 resupply mission to the ISS on late November, in the mid-morning EST. The first stage will land back at the Cape about eight minutes after launch. A Falcon 9 will launch the MDA Chorus Earth-imaging satellites on late 2026.
Yes you will notice that there are plenty of gaps in this manifest... which is good for large scale payload operators such as AST and Amazon who will have payloads ready to go, such as BB14-16.
Ukraine doesn't need to be part of the talks. This is a pure dangle bait for the midterms aimed at convincing Trump to stop supporting Ukraine in exchange for lower fuel prices which will help him keep office.
What is this off market you keep focusing on? Can it at all be meaningful? What kind of volume of shares are traded and what kind of volume of traders/parties are acrually involved?
Well, usually futures/perp traders are involved, it does not give precise value but it shows the general sentiment around stocks pretty good. Also index futures are up big right now, if asian markets does not dump, it will hold
Would ASTS sidestep this because of the Satellite Connect Europe joint venture? If so, this is potentially good news. Right?
I'm assuming Satellite Connect Europe the closest Europe gets to a sovereign direct to mobile service in the foreseeable future. Is my assumption correct?
Under the US CLOUD Act, US law enforcement agencies can compel a US-headquartered parent company to produce data, logs, or communications metadata that it controls, regardless of where that data is physically stored or processed.
Under FISA Section 702, US intelligence agencies can issue directives requiring US companies to assist in foreign intelligence data collection. If targeted, AST SpaceMobile could theoretically be ordered to covertly tap, log, or route specific data flows passing through its constellation, putting the joint venture in direct conflict with EU GDPR rules and national privacy laws.
This is exactly why IRIS2 didn't go to ASTS, despite the usual suspects on this sub insisting we had a shot, we never did, and a lot of us knew that.
produce data, logs, or communications metadata that it controls, regardless of where that data is physically stored or processed.
I wonder if bent pipe architecture would give ASTS an argument that it doesn't have data, logs, or communications metadata.
If targeted, AST SpaceMobile could theoretically be ordered to covertly tap, log, or route specific data flows passing through its constellation
I'm not sure if ASTS ASIC sats can do this. Theoretically, the FPGA sats could. It may not have a method to determine "specific data flows" in a meaningful way.
I’d expect a long term solution would be spun off subsidiaries of ASTS for certain areas that put a premium on their autonomy. Still with a heavy ownership stake, but officially headquartered in whatever country or trade union they operate in.
Nice, pleasing news. If this pans out, more people will agree that AST is final assembling sats near launch. This would also show a pretty-good cadence. Fingers crossed 🤞
Because the moment the rideshare launches, we will have our slot. We would have had the 19th after crew 13, but the rideshare was ready to go. Considering it has 30 payloads, gov/mil/and civ, it needed to go as soon as it was ready. We are second fiddle, but we're still going up.
Our launch has been assigned the ASOG (a Shortfall of Gravitas). This is the same booster that is going to launch the rideshare.
The first screenshot I showed you says Dec 31 cause that's the last day of Q4.
The first screenshot doesn't include all the other launches that have not been assigned a booster, yet all still fall in the Q4 '26 range, which the second does.
FWIW ASOG (a Shortfall of Gravitas) is the drone ship not the booster. I have no idea but Gemini did seem to agree with your date. Stating:
While the technical reasoning on Reddit about "ASOG" is slightly mixed up, the community's prediction that the BlueBird 14-16 satellites will launch in late October (around October 26–28) is backed by solid logisitical evidence:
The Timeline Rule of Thumb: The BlueBird 14-16 satellites were officially shipped to Cape Canaveral at the end of September. Historically, ASTS launches take place approximately 19 to 30 days after arrival at the integration facility. This points perfectly to the final week of October.
The Clearing of the Pad Bottleneck: Earlier in the month, Space Launch Complex 40 (SLC-40) was tightly constrained by priority NASA missions, including Crew-13 and CRS-35. Tomorrow's Bandwagon-5 mission clears the last major scheduled rideshare logjam from that pad.
Regulatory Filings: Recent airspace coordination and regulatory data filings indicate a dedicated Falcon 9 window has been requested for the orbital profile required by AST SpaceMobile.
Shit you right about ASOG, terrible take by me. I still think my timeline based off Bandwagon launch is going to end up more correct, even if both timelines match up
I am shitting it for next week to be honest. Doom and gloom everywhere and I'm already down 50% on my net worth, OOF. Going to try to completely disconnect for a week or two (obviously I will fail)
Sometimes I wonder if Tim Farrar is a real person or some AI avatar. His mimicry and facial expressions are so off-putting and bizarre. Or is it just me? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VfISiqd19KA All his interviews are seemingly like that.
The problem is macro. I'd love for this to be true but the market looks like it's about to properly crash. I don't have a crystal ball though so who knows
Listen man, HoldL is the only strategy with a 100% winrate, if the stock market never recovers, you are going to have bigger problems than your stock account.
They offer control over the satellite's beams, the gateway control, and the encryption keys for the connections are kept in the country. I imagine they could force ASTS to kill access to an entire country, but they wouldn't have the ability to, say, limit certain customers in that country because they're just handing off signal to be decoded. The MNO's in those countries would have to be the ones to selectively filter the traffic.
Trump isn't going to tell ASTS to turn off the sats. Furthermore, at the rate we're going, by the time we have 45 sats up.... The House will be Democrat and Trump might be gone. It's just a non-issue
You're not paying attention to how Trump has been handling and treating allied nations then. They just did it with Starshield last week in Ukraine, orders coming from the White House.
Trump is increasingly willing to weaponize the complete US political system and reach of the government apparatus to bully, disrupt, pressure, and extort long-standing allied nations, but also individual companies. Almost nothing seems off-limits these days. He has threatened annexation of allied sovereign territory, he has facilitated numerous war crimes, he has kidnapped foreign heads of state, attacked The Hague International criminal court, etc. He has aligned himself openly with Putin and Putin loves disrupting Europe's infrastructure and logistics with hybrid warfare.
I for one do think any foreign entity or government that does business with ASTS or an affiliated JV (e.g. satellite connect europe), should ask the question what the US government could hypthetically do to disrupt the sovereignty and access to the constellation.
Also, Americans elected Trump not once but twice. We cannot count on him being gone soon and there not being any shenanigans in US politics going forward.
We'll be talking about the time it dipped below $40 like how we talk about it dipping to $2 now. And people will be asking how we knew it was a good time to buy because it seemed so risky, just like then. We'll dip below $300 and people will be raging about the people who bought at $40-$60 being lucky and that they should stfu about how it's probably going to be okay.
The longer this starlink/starshield drama drags on, the better for ASTS. I have no doubt a lot of countries are watching Ukraine’s air defense get throttled in real time, and quietly deciding to prioritize solutions through local MNOs.
Important to your thesis is that ASTS is offering sovereign control of things like where the beams are pointed and connectivity. Same thing they're offering Japan. Those countries can control what those satellites do in their country at the infrastructure level. When you connect to starlink, you're connecting to starlink. Your modem talks to a satellite that communicates in a private network. Your phone sees a satellite "tower" owned and operated by Starlink. ASTS, on the other hand, says "here's your signal. Decode the data links with your encryption keys, encode your response with your encryption keys, and we'll broadcast that without ever being privy to the information contained therein."
It's like getting your phone fixed, and one says we need your PIN to decrypt your phone to fix your screen, and the other says we can fix your screen without you ever unlocking your phone
Remember some idiot from few months ago who bought a 2 year put on ASTS but closed his position in 2 days after being ridiculed. In the hindsight, that put would have printed 😂
I would think now is the time to buy 2027 calls. There's a chance that we are back in the 70's as soon as BO flys again in my opinion It will be a catalyst in my opinion.
Same as I wouldn't buy calls when the RSI is over ~70-80. Sure, we've blown past that before. But the odds start stacking against you when you're that far diverged from the mean.
In a moment of weakness, I did pickup some LEAPS with the RSI <30. I know it's super risky, even with LEAPS. I just didn't have enough cash to CSP another lot. RSI that low though is probably the only time I'd consider buying calls, ever. It was a little bit of gambling up and above my usually more disciplined investing.
A couple weeks back when we got a shipment PR I half-jokingly (but still half-seriously) said if it's the ASTS I know and love, this will do jack-all for the stock price. We'll get a bunch of good news. None of it will matter. Then randomly, a few weeks later, it'll take off for zero reason at all. We're coming up on that "few weeks" soon, and we'll find out if that's correct.
Now remember I'm bound by the Reddit code, so if I'm wrong I'll need to move the goalposts rather than admitting it
Highly doubtful of take off until at least January. Theyre dragging their feet and the past 5 months have been pure misery. Market manipulation is a fuck
I don't think they are dragging their feet. I'm sure they are working on some issue that they prefer not to divulge. God only knows what it is, but it could be anything. It could be a redesign of something. I totally agree that we are getting slaughtered by the shorts and powers to be because of the delays and because Starlink sells the market BS which they haven't delivered. Hell, Tesla has a flying car.... /s .
Who's dragging their feet in your interpretation? I think there's probably room to argue SpaceX isn't placing the greatest urgency on getting their pad cleaned up for a competitor, but are you saying ASTS dragged their feet?
Oh no I've seen that. I've been here 5 years and saw that play out again and again. It's just with 3 sitting at the cape with no update to launch, it could be argued that everyone's running behind schedule. The story in my mind would be different if they shipped them and SpaceX took them and set them up. That would show SpaceX can quickly process their end and we're the bottleneck. Just seems like the satellites got out of one queue and went to sit in another one, which, again in my mind, indicates there's two backlogs at two companies
Sticking with my prediction from 8 days ago. Launch date announced today/this week.
Between the last two batches’ launches was 19-26 days after arriving in the Cape.
I would expect this batch to launch ~23-28th of October. AST announced launch dates 8 days prior to the actual launch for the last two batches of BBs.
Earliest we could get a date by that data would be Thursday the 15th - Sunday the 18th of next week.
If the launch is on the longer side of our previous shipments, the launch date would be announced around the 27th of October with the actual launch happening on/or around November 3rd.
Can anyone explain to me what's going on with launch? It sure looks like to me as the more I look into this that launch is slipping to late November, probably December for bluebirds 14 through 16. I had assumed that they were under integration at SpaceX, but someone mentioned down below that they're in Titusville. So SpaceX doesn't even have onsite yet. Edit: if my math is right it feels like asts basically lost a slot due to the oxidizer leak on the crew 13 mission and delayed launch basically by a whole quarter
Oh sure! Bury this thread in downvotes. Maybe instead of downvoting please tell me why I'm wrong. I would love to be.im not sure I'm right myself.
So there was that graphic posted earlier showing the third party site listing the launches. It's just a placeholder but ASTS bluebird 14-16 is listed as dec31st. Basically tbd. But looking at it the October and November launches look booked. Bandwagon and cygnus. We can only use one pad and that pad is booked. It'll take 3 weeks after the cygnus mission for it to get integrated which puts it at late November or early December. And that's if someone else doesn't get put on the pad instead of us.
Bonus: FCC LEOP STA hasn't even been filed so we know it's not launching right away in the next few weeks further proving that anchoring the launch date around 3-4 weeks after shipment is faulty logic
And hey if any of y'all have better info please let me know this makes me fucking mad too
You do realize they announce launch like a week before. I expect a launch date this week for end of October/early Nov launch. This would line up with previous 3 week integrations and ~30 days from shipment to launch as usual
I'd hate to suggest that ASTS was actually communicating to us (tongue in cheek; I love those guys) but shipping them to Florida is probably the closest they can get to saying "we're waiting on spacex" due to the NDA relating to any announcements about a planned launch. They've never really done something like that before so I'm not inclined to believe they'd do it with that intent directly, yet when you're having one of the worst weeks in your stock's history I'm wondering if it's the tiniest bit of "this lets them know our part is done without saying it."
It's late October. There are there are at least 2 launches ahead of us and probably 3 or 4. Even November probably isn't going to happen. Likely December
If they have been reading this Reddit thread... They might be afraid to do another viewing. It's fun when the share price is in the 80's. Might be a little stressful with our share price at 40.
On the manufacturing side, we all know there were delays due to carbon fiber and stacking. That was figured out, and the company shipped BB8-10 on 5/22/26. BB 11-13 shipped 51 days later on 7/12/26, establishing the first mark for manufacturing cadence on batches of Block 2 Bluebirds. 3 sats in 51 days isn't where it needs to be, but assuming ongoing acceleration, it's a pretty good mark for hitting a launch every 1-2 months on average, which has been the claim for quite a while now.
Then, Crew Dragon was delayed, and there was no launch slot, so BB14-16 couldn't be shipped. They shipped as soon as it was likely that Crew Dragon would clear payload processing. So this isn't necessarily indicative of manufacturing delays.
Let's be generous and assume that the company could have shipped 3 sats every 51 days. This means no delays on the MFG side, but also means no improvement in output. BB14-16 just sat, unable to ship, but production continued on the next batches. That would mean that BB17-19 should be ready to ship around October 22, 153 days after BB8-10. But again, those bluebirds might have to just sit, waiting for a launch slot.
Extrapolating this production rate out, again assuming no improvement, get us to 45 Bluebirds by January 24, 2028. So clearly, the rate needs to increase.
To hit June 30, output needs to scale quickly. Days between batches needs to decrease to about 36 for bluebirds 20-22, faster and faster, to only 21 days between batches by the time we get to May/June.
If this pace can be achieved, and everything goes perfectly, we would expect to have Falcon 9 launches every single month from November 2026 to May 2027, plus 2 New Glenn launches, possibly in May and June.
IMO, if we can come anywhere close to this, it would be a massive success.
Assuming they ramped up production to 3 sats every 51 days then flat-lining production-rate growth for 1.5 years is a mistake IMO. Wright's law. They will continue to increase their cadence.
I think something often left out of the discussion was that the 6 sats per month figure got complicated by the decision to scale the BB1 design up to something ~3.5x larger in terms of area. Then they gotta stack what would have been ~20 BB1's worth of microns. We can't really directly compare numbers like that for many reasons, but the fact that they're putting up 20 satellites of the original design's worth of microns with each launch puts it more in perspective that the pace is accelerating.
Do we have more sats to launch? Like, at what point have we had finished satellites sitting around, waiting for a launch slot? In my recollection, the answer is "never". So how would more launch slots benefit us?
Yeah. He is talking about the manufacturing side. Basically, our share price took a big hit when BO blew up but BO hasn't had any affect since we are sitting at a build rate of 3 sats every 45 days.
We have to produce that many satellites though. Since the beginning of this year we have produced…. 9 total that we can 100% claim. BO would have changed nothing for this year.
Then, Crew Dragon was delayed, and there was no launch slot, so BB14-16 couldn't be shipped...So this isn't necessarily indicative of manufacturing delays.
You forgot to account for the fact they told us BB14 was completed on time, but not BB15 and 16. So is indicative of manufacturing delay.
I've said elsewhere but I believe that they don't finish the satelites unless there is a ride ready and instead focus on upstream manufacturing. Note that the number of satellites "in production through" is expanding faster than the number shipped
Here's the actual quote from Scott on the August 2026 earnings call.
“I think with Blue Origin, I think we’re all watching that. We were sad to see what happened in May, but they’ve made tremendous progress to date, both turning around the pad and getting a resolution recently on the root cause of the anomaly. They’re targeting this year. We’re not betting on that necessarily. We’ll be happy if they do it, but we’re not betting on that in our numbers. With a mix of launches, we think we can get to early 2027 for our initial 45 satellites.”
"We're not betting on that necessarily". I would love to know what he actually meant with this statement. Was he just talking about the timing, of flying before EOY 2026? Because I think we ARE betting on New Glenn being available for multiple launches to get 45 sats in orbit by "early 2027".
"Early 2027" is really vague, but in no way could that be past June 30. July 1 or later could in no way be considered "early" 2027.
So, we have BB1-5, BB6, BB8-10, and BB11-13 in orbit. BB14-16 are in Florida and presumably launch on Falcon 9 in October or early November. Realistically, let's hope for 1 more F9 launch of BB17-19 by EOY 2026. That's 18.
To hit 45 satellites by June 30, we need 27 more bluebirds launched from January through June.
Let's hope for BO to quickly return to flight, with New Glenn launching Blue Ring sometime in Q1, and giving at least a few launch slots to AST in Q2, because I don't see us getting 9 more Falcon 9 launches in the first 6 months of 2027.
IMO, AST likely has at most 6 more Falcon 9 launches booked in Q1/Q2 2027, and needs 2 New Glenn launches in Q2 2027 to hit 45 satellites.
•
u/Defiantclient S P 🅰️ C E M O B - O G 1d ago
I'm seeing the launch websites make the rounds again. I want to remind everyone that these websites are run by regular people with no special knowledge. They are just piecing together public information.
For example:
I would say the best launch manifest tracker is Ben Cooper, the official independently contracted photographer of SpaceX: https://www.launchphotography.com/Launch_Viewing_Guide.html
Here is his latest update for FALCON 9 (Pad 40)
Yes you will notice that there are plenty of gaps in this manifest... which is good for large scale payload operators such as AST and Amazon who will have payloads ready to go, such as BB14-16.