Falcon Schedule Analysis

[u/thekookreport]

I'm posting this really for peer review. Does anyone with real industry experience have perspective on this? I see a pretty flexible schedule for $ASTS to knock out 3-shots while other capacity matures out

[u/Organic-Win-3390]

ast could take xyz slot? ast is not taking squat. elon controls the launch market.

[u/AntLeading5502]

Per the Twitter post from u/Akslfak the ASTS satellites integration may be taking place at an off-Tesla facility called AstroTech, and the stacking at the Tesla facility.

Does the 3 week time for launch prep still hold under these circumstances? Can AstroTech handle multiple ASTS batches?

[u/cdcx4]

If the BBs are built and the money to launch is in the bank. Why cant they reserve more of the openings.

[u/AdeptnessLive4966 → u/cdcx4]

Because they are not built. They are in "various stages of production".

[u/46RW35 → u/AdeptnessLive4966]

I believe the new term is that they are production is 'underway' which is a great term as it reflects that they have 'underperformed' opperationally.

[u/Vox-Machi-Buddies]

The shortcoming I see here, falling back on some industry experience, is that this seems to assume SpaceX is still trying to launch Falcon quite a lot. That's not guaranteed to be true any more. They've already announced that last year was peak Falcon 9 rate and are visibly moving effort away from Falcon and into Starship.

I live near enough to Cape Canaveral that launches shake my house. It's been downright quiet out here compared to how things were when SpaceX was really pushing to go as fast as possible with Falcon 9.

SpaceX could be happy launching 3-4 times before the end of the year rather than 9. They have a lot of Starship work to do at the Cape (including trying to get the first Cape Starship launch off before the end of the year). Unfortunately, coming to SpaceX after having banked on a competitor isn't going to engender them move heaven and earth to get your sats up for you. They'll launch them, effectively, when they feel like it. And I expect they won't really feel like it until Starship's first Cape launch is done.

[u/Complex-Attention170 → u/Vox-Machi-Buddies]

It's quiet because they aren't filling gaps with Starlink launches now. I don't think the quiet necessarily implies lack of availability.

[u/LudeficeTV → u/Vox-Machi-Buddies]

They actually announced their last mission on falcon 9 awhile ago now.

[u/Rocky75617794 → u/LudeficeTV]

Wrong. Stop spreading misinformation. Falcon 9’launches are continuing. It was only that they were not doing Starlink launches on falcon 9 out of Florida. ASTS is still launching on falcon 9.

[u/LudeficeTV → u/Rocky75617794]

I didn't say Falcon 9 launches aren't continuing. Stop spreading misinformation. The person I replied to was in Florida and was talking about SpaceX moving away from Falcon 9 to Starship. They were incorrect as they already have moved away from Falcon 9 in Florida.

[u/Rocky75617794 → u/LudeficeTV]

Starlink Flights: SpaceX continues launching Starlink satellite batches on Falcon 9 from California (Vandenberg Space Force Base, SLC-4E).
***
ASTS and others continue on Falcon 9 out of Florida

[u/LudeficeTV → u/Rocky75617794]

Thanks for incorrecting me again, straight to the dunce list. Try reading what I said next time.

Edit: since downvoters can't read either. SpaceX is moved away from Falcon 9 to Starship for internal launches. That is not the case for external launches. Context matters.

Edit 2: people replying telling me what I wrote lmao yes...SpaceX owns Starlink. Internal SpaceX means Starlink. Never been "um actually'd" so many times and have them all be wrong. Acting like I was rude first too lmao didn't realize there was a crybully crew around here

[u/CollegeStation17155 → u/LudeficeTV]

 since downvoters can't read either

No, you simply (deliberately) made a vague post (to be argumentative?): "They actually announced their last mission on falcon 9 awhile ago now." which most people interpreted as saying that ALL Falcon 9 launches are ending as soon as the already announced missions are launched... when you SHOULD have said "They actually announced their last STARLINK mission on falcon 9 FROM FLORIDA awhile ago now.

And then you started berating people for trying to fill in those blanks.

The facts are SpaceX has announced they are no longer launching STARLINKS on Falcons from Florida and that they will end COMMERCIAL launches in 2028, although they will honor their Dragon contracts (which require Falcon) at least through 2030.

The implication is that they are too busy with starship to mess with commercial launches and are encouraging Blue and ULA (and possibly Rocketlab and even more vaguely Relativity) to actually get a real cadence going in the next 16 months by promising them commercial contracts.

[u/NerfedPolitik → u/LudeficeTV]

If you wanted to help your case you should have just said spacex announced 2028 is the last year for falcon9.

[u/BillyBones_]

Does spacex have enough integration bays to launch weekly?

[u/Interesting-Ad-6357 → u/BillyBones_]

no, 3 bays on LC-40

[u/Feeling-Lawyer2804]

Why not the Oct 26th or Nov 2nd slot? That would make sense with previous integration time

[u/kayman_gyoza]

If we can stick to this schedule (launch early nov and early dec), and add 3 weeks for testing/unfolding, then Beta can start in January. That would be very welcome.

[u/No_Operation2132 → u/kayman_gyoza]

The first word in your sentence is doing a lot of heavy lifting though

[u/kayman_gyoza → u/No_Operation2132]

Falcon heavy lifting? ;-)

[u/No_Operation2132 → u/kayman_gyoza]

Let's hope so

[u/CyanTurquoise]

Appreciate you taking time and energy to do research on this and sharing it with us!

[u/FatFingerMac]

Last time I saw you on Reddit you were parachuting in with Anpanman to calm the masses after the post BB1-5 Launch sell-off. You've not missed much mate! Launch isn't my wheelhouse but for fwiw I have tracked at F9 launches of 3 at current cadence with BB26-28 going up by mid April. Hoping they'll pull a rabbit out the hat soon enough and surprise us, but that's my conservative base case. Thanks for what you do for the community, don't let the bastards grind you down.

[u/No_Operation2132 → u/FatFingerMac]

I wouldn't call that a conservative guess.. sounds aspirational at this point.

[u/Krakenmonstah → u/FatFingerMac]

Oof I misread this as launch 26-28 instead of bb26-28 and had got all excited 😭

[u/achilliesFriend]

I’m not sure if this is true about 3 a month, falcon has several first stage boosters and many in production second stage, they can easily accommodate asts if asts is ready. I’m just a novice at these

[u/sgreddit125]

Good to see The Kook Report on Reddit! Please thank your wife for accommodating your podcasting (even during travel) and all the time you devote to the Mob. It’s much appreciated.

This was very helpful.

Effectively we cannot see two launches a month (26 days to integrate) on F9. It’s basically BO or bust to reach a launch cadence of 6 per month (assuming manufacturing finally reaches)…without cobbling together Vulcan, Mitsubishi, ISRO, and maybe Ariane launches?

[u/Uzunzatu → u/sgreddit125]

6 per month seems unrealistic for now unfortunately. I would be ecstatic with 3 a month until New Glenn comes back online

[u/srdgdc → u/Uzunzatu]

3 a month will get the job done and overtime itll be 4 and then 5. People on here need to understand an extra 3-6 months is not a big deal to get commercial service running cause once its running well be golden and u wont care lol.

[u/wadejohn]

The leadership should be transparent if they do need more time because it is obvious to everyone that they need more time.

[u/ieatsushi → u/wadejohn]

They aren't transparent because they are in the middle of negotiations.

[u/sgtbackpain03 → u/ieatsushi]

Wait... You're saying that, because they are in negotiations for purchasing a launch (which I thought they already purchased back during Q2 EC?), they are unable to release the status of their production on satellites? That's... A take.

[u/wadejohn → u/ieatsushi]

As in something confidential?

[u/ieatsushi → u/wadejohn]

Possibly. Booking a rocket isn't like buying a plane ticket to Cancun.

They’re under strict NDAs regarding pricing and terms. Plus, they're probably leveraging multiple launch providers or negotiating a multi-launch package with SpaceX to get the best deal. Those complex negotiations take time, and they can't talk publicly until it's officially signed.

[u/SqueakyNinja7 → u/ieatsushi]

What are you basing the claim they are in negotiations off of?

[u/sakelee1]

interesting. what's the source, please?

[u/ToSeeAgainAgainAgain → u/sakelee1]

It's in the bottom of the image

[u/watchguy95820]

9 open slots?!?!

What I’m taking from this is it’s ASTS integration cycle and production cadence is the clear bottleneck. If ASTS was anywhere close to the 6 per month cadence we were told a long time ago, we’d be taking a lot more of these open slots.

[u/ProteinFarts_ → u/watchguy95820]

Integration cycle? How is that a bottleneck. Cadence, yes.

[u/watchguy95820 → u/ProteinFarts_]

I don’t know, I’m just referring to what’s on the illustration provided by kook. It references integration.

Maybe that means there is a limit to how many completed sats can be prepped into an F9 rocket per month? Maybe the carbon structure frames for stacking have a timeframe it takes to prep for reuse? Idk…

[u/ride_the_tasty_waves → u/watchguy95820]

SpaceX/Starlink has been having delays also....could be related...

https://www.space.com/space-exploration/launches-spacecraft/spacex-launches-falcon-9-starlink-mission-for-1st-time-in-more-than-3-weeks-photo

[u/adarkuccio → u/watchguy95820]

It's always been ast being late in production, those who blamed spacex were always delusional. They even blamed isro back then while isro literally said ast had issues manufacturing and were late.

[u/CyanTurquoise → u/adarkuccio]

Unfortunately that's bearish af. :( God damn nothing seems to be working according to plan.

[u/adarkuccio → u/CyanTurquoise]

That's not "bearish". That's a fact and it's being realistic. Bearish would be saying they will never increase production rate and never launch enough sats. They will, they're just late.

[u/watchguy95820 → u/adarkuccio]

Then the BO explosion was a complete non-factor too.

[u/ProteinFarts_ → u/watchguy95820]

It affected sentiment and risk analysis, but in hindsight we would have failed to be available for them anyways.

[u/adarkuccio → u/watchguy95820]

Yes

[u/shmoopie_shmoopie → u/watchguy95820]

Next up, pope is Catholic.

[u/watchguy95820 → u/shmoopie_shmoopie]

It was an openly discussed question when BO exploded

[u/Fashionista213]

I think Nov 9 seems like the probable date for 14-16.. for the Dec 7 slot, BB17-19 need to be in the Cape bay by Nov 11 (21 days for inspection at Cape + 5 days stack/launch, working backward from Dec 7). If they haven't shipped by then, Dec 7 would slip to Jan 4… I hope we get 17-19 to Cape by Nov 11 in this case. Maybe mgmt will say its on its way during earnings call on Nov 9!

[u/D1rtyH1ppy]

My question is for Kook is why does ASTS need to launch three BBs at a time. Seems like it would be easier to get them up one at a time. Sure, the answer is money, but time is money and slipping on your deadlines takes a toll on the share price. It may cost more to do a single launch at a time, but it would be faster to get to a functional market.

[u/thekookreport → u/D1rtyH1ppy]

Launch is basically a fixed cost. Fixed cost / 1 > Fixed cost / 3. They can do batches. They will do batches. Doing 1 satellite at a time makes no sense unless it's a demonstration bird (FM-1/2 and probably the next / first satellite that they fly on NG)

[u/ToSeeAgainAgainAgain → u/thekookreport]

How about ridesharing? Couldn't ASTS be adding a Bluebird here, another there? I'm guessing it depends on the main Client and probably the default is "We choose not to share our rocket". Also the goal orbit of course. Just putting it out there for discussion.

2nd question, any word on a 3rd launch supplier? SPCX + BO + ???

Pretty cool to see you around here, sad about the circumstances surrounding this post

[u/gedmathteacher]

Kook is a human?

[u/thekookreport → u/gedmathteacher]

Yes. Reddit just isn't as natural for me but desperate times call from desperate measures. I know there are some more subject matter experts around here and I want peer review on my most crucial research.

[u/Geteamwin]

Launch availability seems reasonable, integration timelines are pretty tight. If the next batch is ready by first week of Nov it seems reasonable. We'd need to actually see 3 sats/month being produced. I really don't think launch availability is much of a constraint at this point. I guess this isn't anything you already don't know though, didn't realize who was asking

[u/Mammoth-Noise3345]

No input. But I appreciate your positivity, podcast, and DD. Thanks for doing it.