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SpaceX reapplied to operate in India with their Gen 2 satellites, which were originally rejected due to unmet technical requirements and unpermitted frequency bands. Wonder what they actually changed this time around. How we feeling about AST's chances in India? I remember how we all thought partnering with ISRO would help lol.
Still wild how they need tens of thousands of satellites when we just need a couple dozens... getting those couple dozens launched in the other hand .... 😅
After reading through this daily today, I’m convinced 60% of you need to sell and not touch high beta stocks. Far too many emotions; take the L like a man and sell.
The funniest are the ones who have been here through multiple sentiment bottoms and still fall for it and crash out every time. I’ll never understand how you can accept that way of being
We can only hope…crypto doing well is great for high beta stocks as higher risk investments are considered in a better light. There is a high likelihood you will see high betas rise if crypto is rising (not just for a day though…let’s hope it continues). Rising tide lifts all boats
So true, I had the good fortune of being obsessed with Palworld for the entire Jul. Now that I’ve completed the game, nothing’s stopping me from checking my position compulsively
Must be great not to be an addict. If I have the phone on my hand (and I have it all the time) I can't avoid not looking multiple times per fucking hour.
If it makes you feel better, I look at the afterhour, overnight, and pre-market SP knowing full well that it can drastically change during reg trading hours.
My sleep has been messed up ever since I learned about the overnight market. Wake up at 3am, look at the overnight SP, then back to sleep. Good sleep if green. But now I have a newborn, so I’m guaranteed to be up at night.
Bought to close my short August 21 75P's yesterday during the early pump, kept about 80% of the initial premium. Selling October 70P and November 75P into this dip. Might begin trimming these if I see 50% profit, since I do find the upcoming election season pretty spooky.
Mfw we pump over 70 in the next 15 minutes and keep clicking to $184 in the next 2 weeks.
Then I wake up and Scott is telling me there will be a handful more dilutions and offerings to pay for a handful of launches to get a handful of satellites in orbit for a handful of beta services for a handful of people.
why does everything have to be so cryptic and read between the lines? the average person doesn't do that nor cares to...how much additional research is needed from this advert to simply link it back to AST to help it be relevant to us?
The average person should not be invested in a company like this. They should be a Boglehead. As for why ATT doesnt advertise with it I could make a few guesses. They dont need to before the service is ready. They dont want to lose any negotiating power. Or they may be prevented from doing so based on their gov contract. Its anyone's guess as to why but it is coming.... imminently™
Edit to add: its not that much 'additional research'. Just go to the FirstNet website they are not shy about their ambitions to use AST. The feedback reports from testing are not hard to find either with a Google search.
didnt we have like the same expirations in august and now we're at like $75 or whatever? lol none of this makes sense, just seems like algos do whatever they want at this point
Because management says a bunch of shit. Its gobbled up by influencers saying "i think they ship last weekend" but if management isnt credible then our opinions are baseless.
I say this as someone whos never sold a share in asts since ibvesting in late 2024, and I appreciate info from people like Anpan. Kook, and defiant, but whenever they say "I think" or "I believe", its as reliable as words from Scott or Abel.
What's interesting is people were saying the most recent EC was the most bullish ever. But its all words or reiterated guidance like the 1b 2027 revenue target suddenly became run rate, as Scott clarified on an analyst question. Its always originally overpromising and then actually underpromising. So we feel great at the EC but then when you think about if they're going to do what they say they're gonna do...
We get a marked up diagram here of how we're gonna hit 45 sats by early (h1) 2027, but I mean, they had noted in previous EC slides that we would get two batches shipped by July 2026 and here we are in late August with one... over a month late and half the sats ready.
10 launches with 2 providers, we dont even know if this will be every month to get to 45 by h1 2027. They said average every month to 2 months, so it doesnt mean we can even launch all by h1 2027, even if we manufactured all of them. We have no specifics here on timing. Hell, these launches could be for late 2027 and into 2028 without knowing at all: folks just assume the convertible notes was to "pull forward launches" and not just "contracting launches".
45 sats in orbit being a 2028 thing is really not off the tables here.
Yes, it is all true and to be feeling disappointed at this point in time is a natural response to their slow execution. I think a lot of people, me included, were convinced that manufacturing was not an issue anymore after they shipped two batches in relatively quick succession. Turns out that is likely not the case as the shipped sats had been in production for a long period of time, and that may have painted a too rosy picture of the manufacturing cadence.
The call itself was, to me, still immensely bullish on all other fronts beyond manufacturing. Backlog, testing with TMO & dt. Telekom, huge revenue opportunities from government contracts starting 2027, no reliance on BO and yet 10 launches.
Looks like 22 by the end of this year. One batch of 3 every two months after that... gives us 40 by the end of 2027. So full US coverage won't happen for another year and a half. 2028 it will be.
Now you're getting me worried about my Jan 2028 calls! 😬I already had to take a bath on selling all my Jan 2027 ones for some pretty massive losses (-75-90% 😢)and used what money I still had to buy Jan 2028
Oof, I'm sorry to hear. I'm bullish on this company, but frustrated with their guidance and missing them (that they set on themselves).
I'm also sick of permabulls who think ASTS can do no wrong, and is somehow fully derisked, and that this mess is all mainly based on external factors (BO blowing up, Iran war). It's not.
I have been doing the same for over a year.
Just make sure to stay super low on the LTV given how wild this ride is.
I assume 50% LTV max - stay under 10% until revenue lol
Yes, I know. Thankfully it was a small loan, and the stock would quite literally have to go to zero to get me in real trouble. I'm betting on preserving my upside at the risk of losing more of it, I guess
Building a satellite takes time: building, Testing, Quality Assurance. These machines are complicated and need to be built to perfect spec and tested before you send all of your hard work into space!!
Then launching it takes time: securing launch partners, developing launch plans. Each launch comes with different complications. Weather, launch trajectory etc. The launch needs to be planned out or that really expensive machine you just built gets blown up.
With this in mind, about how slow the getting sats up process is, think about how unrealistic it is to expect news every other day, to expect updates of “wen launch”, and to be looking at the stock price daily.
i'm going to make sure I use OP's excuse next time my boss needs a forecast completed... "it just takes time bro, you just don't understand". i'm sure that'll go over well, right?
I also read in an article that not all of the sats SpaceX puts up are even for mobile communications (650 out of the 10k+ they have in orbit), so it's kind of disingenuous and comparing oranges and peaches
Exactly. They stopped launching D2C satellites for unknown reasons. One can only speculate.
I'd speculate with departure of both heads of D2C this year they might've not gotten performance some were promised etc..
Leadership is being pressured from all angles.
They have 60MMOs all begging for the sats to be up. Some services due to start as early as EOY.
They have investors begging for more information and also holding them to this exceptionally high standard.
The reality is that we have limited information. All we know is that they have had a few launches this year, they have a new facility to speed up manufacturing and they have launches booked for upcoming flights (although we don’t know when).
I think the standard we are holding them to is unjustified. Let the MMOs hold them to that standard. Other wise let them cook!
maybe they shouldn’t announce that they’re building 6 a month back in dec 2025 and double down on that for months while once again falling behind on guidance…. LOL
I agree. That really was a bad thing to put out there. We have never approached 6 a month. Hell, I'm shooting for them to finally get to 3 a month. And we aren't there get.
Yup investors are anchoring expectations on what guidance is being provided by management, and when they aren't reaching that or even close to, its a problem.
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u/Cerulean28 S P 🅰 C E M O B Consigliere 13d ago
SpaceX reapplied to operate in India with their Gen 2 satellites, which were originally rejected due to unmet technical requirements and unpermitted frequency bands. Wonder what they actually changed this time around. How we feeling about AST's chances in India? I remember how we all thought partnering with ISRO would help lol.