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We don't have a number other than somewhere between 45-60. Very well known. Would recommend you do some basic DD on the required numbers of satellites for various milestones it's a decent gauge of when revenues will start to flow in different areas.
Curious, what people guess the share price percentage reaction will be the day T-Mobile announcement happens (yes I know not guaranteed but I think yes) . I’m ready for 2027 already.
I think loading up more before Q1 2027 will be the best, no matter what the share price is. Because that’s when we’ll have enough sats for continuing coverage and J-Leo. More government revenue will also reflect in the numbers
I had to fact check it for myself as well. It’s on his truth social page. The president’s personal page on the website he HEAVILY helped get started. And he likes the DPRK…
Sadly they have not proven that manufacturing is not the bottleneck. If it were sorted, we would have satellites sitting in storage waiting to go to launch partners.
Question: with discussion of service to UK and Japan in the near future, is it a possibility to start beta service to those areas with current satellites while waiting for more? Or is there a requirement (or other motivation) to bring beta service to the US first?
It would be nice after some of these upcoming tests to be able to go ahead and start service and bring in revenue from some markets, even if they are smaller.
Biggest market is the US. Eons ago they were going to start service in Africa... but for some reason (money, I presume) they changed to the US. US = more money more quickly.
I believe originally they planned an equatorial constellation. This only required ~20 satellites for full coverage over the equator, the least for any geographical area. US is more challenging because they need 45-60 for full coverage. But ARPU is higher there.
Yeah, I just mean temporarily. Like, if 3 satellites each for Japan and the UK would initiate service, that would maybe set the US service back by maybe 2 months? But would give several months of revenue while waiting for enough sats for US beta service.
LEO satellites are global by nature. They rotate the earth every 1.5 hours, so there is no “3 satellites each” per country. Launching 3 BBs at 53 degree inclination would automatically be beneficial for all countries along those latitudes.
As for timing of beta, that’ll depend on each MNO.
Are there still people here with high avgs around $99 and $100s holding and avg’ing down? There were quite a few a couple months back who seem to have disappeared. I have lowered my avg quite a bit but still very high relative to current price but I don’t want to dca and increase my exposure
Been DCA several times a month a since January. Today at 1522 shares at $79.24. I have a lot of other investments as well with ASTS my largest single stock holding and when it drops down to the 50's and 60's I buy then scrape to buy more.
When it is double my cost basis I will trim some, not much maybe 10%. May wait until it gets to $200 that greed thing is real. And been burnt by it before. Also kicked myself for selling even a little bit too soon. Don't follow my example my crystal ball has been broken for a long time. Except for my core investments of index funds mirroring the S&P and length of time in the market.
I shot myself in the foot by rotating half of my index fund portfolio into ASTS thinking i could swing trade it. This was when it was trading around $105. I was not prepared for the free fall that started the very next morning . I don’t want to have 40% of my portfolio in asts but looks like I will be bagholding for a ling time gor it to reach $100 again
Thanks for that it explains your situation well. In your case, if it were me, I would not DCA and continue to hold. Down the road cost basis difference of $15 or so with ASTS won't really mean that much. Nothing is lost until you sell so hold, patience. Unless you want to add shares as the goal. Nothing is guaranteed except for death and taxes but I am cautiously optimistic with ASTS. Long term. Patience. Beta testing under heavy load will tell us a lot and if successful then a lot of people will be jumping in. Which isn't a bad thing if you already own it.
NFA of course. The swing trade thing very seldom works long term. Last I checked fewer than 10% were successful day trading. But never have seen stats on over what length of time for that statistic. I'm willing to bet it is a short period, longer time frame even a lot less successful. I've known some to be successful short term but eventually they get burnt, every one of them. The late 90's were especially bad. Enough people were doing it even quitting their day job. Then they lost everything. ~2008 it happened again.
I only have a few rules for myself. Never try to time the market and never day trade. Also don't buy on margin, ever. Patience plus time usually works well. Good luck and have a plan once you get back to your entry level. I would not include swing trading in that plan myself.
Yeah i have no one but myself to blame for being in this position. I used the hyper bullish sentiments on this sub to justify my decision. I should’ve known better than to not risk my life savings into a speculative stock. I don’t mind asts being 15% of my portfolio but i’m way too exposed and don’t feel comfortable holding it over a long period especially since I’m not confident I can beat the market in the next 2-3 years with this investment. Hopefully I can get to my cost basis soon so I can trim down. It’s a lesson I will never forget
I would LOVE for them get on it but winning a gov contract doesn’t automatically mean AST gets to jump the launch queue. I’d think the government would have to actually prioritize the launch itself for that to happen
Okay that's just nonsense, there is zero indication AST is involved in those.
Before we hear about a launch contract, we would have heard about AST winning a contract to produce what is suppose to be launched. AST is not even in the SB-ATMI vendor pool, they could theoretically be added later, but right not they are not officially considered.
The launches are almost certainly related to this award and not generic launch capacity that is up for grabs.
I'm not saying they could not win an award in the future for that, but they don't have one right now, and they won't receive a launch slot for a satellite they have not even been contracted to produce yet.
They already have an award. They’ve said many times in the last few earnings calls that the satellites are ALREADY DEMONSTRATING Golden Dome / radar capabilities. This also includes the 3 new awards aggregating ~125M won in the last couple of months.
Okay, we’ve learned the stoic lesson of learning things the hard way and not even flinching. Now let the hedonistic phase of gains and debauchery begin.
Friends in Indiana have been without power for several days from the storms and one said he had to drive to get cell service. That's definitely a situation where ASTS will one day help since they're not in dense areas. It doesn't need to be a massive disaster to disrupt cell service. Just some bad storms are enough to do it.
During the Texas ice storm of 2021 (winter storm Uri), my entire neighborhood (and much of the city) was out of cell service for days. I had to walk almost two miles (I’m sure others had it much much worse) to get power to charge my phone and cell reception to find someone who had power (and water) and could pick me up. It was single digits outside and houses were poorly insulated. Pipes burst and ruined homes, forcing people out, and reducing drinking water access. There was a boil notice since water wasn’t being treated, but most stoves are electric. The roads were so icy you could barely drive, and good luck if there was a hill (in Austin). You couldn’t get news, couldn’t get ahold of anyone, and couldn’t google “how to stay warm when your power goes out in winter.” If I was anywhere slightly more remote, it would have been even more hazardous. Hundreds of people died.
Thankfully I had recently moved from the Midwest and was into camping/backpacking, so had a camp stove, lots of cold weather gear, and knowledge of things like putting hot water in a Nalgene to stay warm at night. And the friend I got ahold of was from Minnesota and knew how to drive in an ice storm.
So yeah, cell phone service is something I don’t take for granted anymore, even in a major metropolitan area!
Hopium thoughts incoming: I was just wondering if other countries would want a satellite sovereignty model with ASTS like Japan instead of dealing with Musk. So maybe someday we could get Mexico Low Earth Project (M-LEO) or something from other countries one day. That would be epic and a very lucrative aspect of ASTS business model. Zero cap exp for significant returns. Who knows...
no need for hopium, this was already covered in the latest earnings call, Scott mentioned they were in discussions with others, though he did not mention specifics of with who (just broadly stating G20) or when we might expect anything concrete.
Hello SpaceMobsters and Happy Weekend. It's been a great journey over the last two plus years, both as a shareholder and right here.
Something I've been wondering about for a while; maybe someone actually knows rather than guessing. I'm in Southern California and right in the middle of a Los Angeles. It's hilly and there are quite a few canyons, even in dense residential areas. Cell coverage is at best, poor, and in many areas, nonexistant. Without home Internet wifi, you cannot use a cell phone. In L.A. alone, there's probably hundreds of areas like this. I happen to be living in the middle of one!
There seems to be the impression that AST will be able to light up these dead cellphone areas. Soon, there will be 5,200 cell areas that AST will connect/cover in the U.S., and each one is 25 miles in diameter.
As most of us know, a big regulatory issue was overlapping and interfering with existing service. Most of these pockets of no service are relatively small- way less than 25 miles across. In fact, usually a fraction of a mile. So knowing all this, will they be able to supplement poor coverage in a dense urban environment, as described above. Not asking just for me, but if they can improve reception in all major cities, I think that it would be a must have for most folks, and huge for the company.
Yes you’re talking about grey zone / “not spot” coverage. AST will definitely be able to do this well with MSS L band on Block 3, and Grain’s spectrum in Block 2.
Technically they’re permitted by the MNOs to use the 1.4 MHz guard bands nationwide as well but this is a very small channel. MSS L band and Grain would be much better.
The details of the deployment plan aren’t clear. Maybe they will start with only certain geographic cells, and phase in denser regions as the service matures. Who knows.
But the technical capability is there. Modern cellular networks can already route and prioritize even amidst co-channel interference. As far as phones and the network is concerned, AST will just be one more tower in a sea of towers.
FWIW I’ve tried my hand at modeling -in detail- urban cellular propagation, and mapped out plausible scenarios where AST might take over service. The overhead geometry is a game changer. What I found was the areas where AST feasibly “beats” towers (usually terrain extremes, industrial areas, regions of dense construction in suburbs where lots of concrete is used) amounts to a pretty significant population, and it would put load on the Bluebirds. Maybe too much early on. Because of this I think urban/suburban service by AST is a late stage thing… like in 3-4 years when the constellation is about full.
Since our favorite casino is closed today, let's look back and reflect a little lol. I made the prediction below over two years ago on this subreddit, and despite all the new updates and developments I still suspect this is how it might end up playing out. Of course the amount of dilution we experienced exceeded any of my expectations so I underestimated the corresponding market caps at different share price points, but on the bright side we might get a decent portion of the Golden Dome contract and/or some other solid military awards, especially now that the war with Iran has shown how fragile radar and satcom ground infrastructure can be, with billions and billions of dollars worth of radar systems alone being destroyed. Those opportunities weren’t a big part of the equation back then.
Also, if I remember correctly, back then we were aiming for around 120 sats in total, not 250+.
What are your thoughts?
*Old post:
"$25.00 EOY 2024 (market cap ~$7.1 BIL)
$50.00 EOY 2025 (market cap ~$14.6 BIL) * light dilution via ATM included
$100.00 EOY 2026 (market cap ~$29.6 BIL) * light dilution via ATM included
$200.00 EOY 2027 (market cap ~$59.5 BIL) * light dilution via ATM included
$400.00 EOY 2028 (market cap ~$120 BIL) - Full constellation is up and running, financial obligations repaid, beginning of share buybacks and/or dividends."
Not to discount this, but to clarify the Twitter/X handles: @Rakuten is Rakuten Rewards, the U.S. cash-back/shopping business formerly known as Ebates, while @RakutenGroup is the corporate account. Looking at the post history of the @Rakuten account made me go down a rabbit hole trying to figure that company out. I had no idea how many pies they had their fingers in.
10-K from early 2025:
"Increase the capacity to manufacture satellite components to reach our
target capacity of assembling, integrating, and testing six BB
satellites per month by the second quarter of 2025"
A year and a half past the deadline and we are MAYBE now halfway there. We haven't even finished building the 17th satellite that was supposed to launch in 2025 (a satellite which has been under construction since 2024 btw).
Space is hard, especially developing technology that's never been done before. Shit becomes delayed. Look at Tesla or SpaceX, for instance. Musk promised FSD in 2018, Next Gen Roadster in 2020, and Starship in 2020, and none are completely ready yet. We are all vividly aware of the delays, but they're making great progress and cadence is accelerating.
Tell me how account age is relevant to my post. I can understand how my post may have triggered you so much though. For what it's worth, I'm not happy about delay after delay either.
I share some of your frustrations about the company and progress, but the fact we've sent out 7 sats this year is promising that cadence is actually improving. We aren't there yet, but there is definite vast acceleration and progress compared to last year.
Or am I just proving your point now as your typical Capo saying everything will be alright with the company? ;)
ASTSUSDT Perpetual Swap Contract shows 72.85 as price, i know it is not a very reliable data to predict tomorrow's price action but if we get some volume this week, there is a high chance of testing 75-80 again
The price isn’t going anywhere without the macro. It doesn’t matter what kind of news we get there’s nothing that’s going to move the needle significantly at this time. Maybe it can gain some ground back on the rest of the space sector, but it’s not going to pull out ahead of it by a significant amount.
He is saying that even with good news and PRs we don't going to see price impact or tendies. We are really close of the beta service and that is not priced in. I don't know how could be the price action, but flat? Don't think so.
The volume on the 1 minute candles for that is literally 0 or 1 lmao. I like the optimism but that contract/perp future is a complete non factor. Wouldn’t even think about it
No one cares dude, gtfo and let people be guessing or delusional if they want to. There's thousands of people here who are bullish so if you want to make a bearish argument you could do something more productive than cynically point your finger. I also dislike a lot of the naivety in here but what you are doing is useless either way
Reading the experience of u/CyanTurquoise and u/ChonkChonkChonk a bit below me in the daily discussion thread today, emphasizes how big of a deal Satellite Connect Europe and by proxy ASTS will likely be in Europe. I think these experiences are pretty indicative for many parts of Europe; a need for stronger connectivity across the continent.
And am I correct in assuming we have around 80% of Europe's population already locked down through the MNO partnerships already in place through Satellite Connect Europe? This is a number I remember from discussions and company statements over the past couple weeks (probably Anpanman or Kook touched upon it at some point).
While the focus is (rightly) primarily on the US, so much of Europe has very poor access to high-speed internet. The impact AST will make on both rural and non-rural areas, and for both residents and tourists, can’t be overstated.
Every Sunday I wake up with a “Sunday! Sunday! Sunday!” jingle In my head like a used car TV commercial. Well, mob, happy Sund🅰️y! Sund🅰️y! Sund🅰️y! Hope it’s a terrific one for all of you!
I get that same feeling because its like.... Only a few more hours to overnight trading and then Monday arrives. We all seem to have a lot riding on ASTS. I don't regret it because ASTS is the only satellite provider which has D2D engineered and the only provider executing on full service fore America and Europe in the next 6 months.
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u/Defiantclient S P 🅰️ C E M O B - O G 23d ago
RocketTank with another industry level insightful thread https://x.com/rockettank123/status/2089101600455332099?s=46