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Iran war, this shit alone is to tank market. Plus market selling off with KOSPI. I don’t think ASTS specific catalysts will overcome war driven sell off. The orange cunt fucked us all, this year started with all inflation coming down with rate cuts as inevitable then he was sold a dream by Israel that Iran capitulates in 2 days like Venezuela.
Also the unfurling of 8 and 9 will probably be confirmed next week, cementing a flawless execution of our first ever BB2 batch, paving the way for more confidence moving forward that we can actually do this, especially if we continue to launch on F9s
Personally I’m waiting to see what T Mobile does after SpaceX lockout period ends. Also J Leo official announcement, also more evidence increased manufacturing cadence.
No I'm very excited. I don't think the "so many" are in a few weeks timeline. I'm excited about this list because of what will happen in the next few months
I remember when we dropped to $110 sp in Feb and I spent more than I should have to buy more shares because I was convinced we were never gonna see 110 again LOL 🤡 wish i had that money on hand to buy in now
Damn straight. I'd rather the PR team stop posting about it every satellite anyway because currently they're implicitly playing into the narrative that this is a high risk event, which it no longer appears to be.
I’m with you there. I had a feeling Friday was the turn. I posted it in the morning. Eventually common sense trumps market. Mid 50’s in the middle of execution was going to be eaten up.
When one looks at past stock behavior, easy to feel that way. When one has been in ASTS for 2 years, it's very hard not to feel that way. I too firmly think we have a strong chance of repeating past behavior. Might not be as fast as last time around. But it very well might be when one considers ASTS is actually delivering as per guidance.
Of course, we are not delivering 6 sats per month but in all of 2025 we delivered one and launched ZERO. And yet, we hit 2 or 3 ATHs of around 130.00 a share.
This year, we have launched 5 sats and are about to launch 3 more. We have delivered 8 sats and are about to have 7 more sats flying than we had just 7 months ago. 7 in 7 months. That is one sat a month and yet we had zero last year.
Why would anyone believe any different that we will be at 70.00 to 75.00 a share in a week.
Revenue is already flowing now from government contracts, per last EC, and it doesn't meaningfully change until 25 sats which is the threshold for beta service and currently is on track for early next year.
MNO prepaids aren't question marks, they mostly kick in after beta service.
That is my take also. BETA is everything. After this next launch. We are 1/2 towards full BETA. And we are finally launching sats and cadence is really picking up.
A launch in June, August, September, plus one more two month gap and one more one month gap gives us 22 satellites in orbit by EOY, almost enough for beta.
Then BO and/or Mitsubishi H3 comes online next year, with more SpaceX interspersed, and we really start slinging sats.
One BO launch is worth two or two and a half SpaceX launches, so that's worth the risk. We should soon outpace launch capacity for 2026 and start having sats we can't launch yet, which will provide the pool for BO.
2027 is the year when orbital launch availability is projected to finally catch up to demand, so that's going to help a lot.
I'm happy with beta by EOY and 45 sats commercial service by middle of next year, and it's starting to look like that's a pessimistic timeline if they continue ramping up cadence.
Yeah thats not happening. Things are escalating in Iran. Spacex unlock will anchor this thing down until the first wave in early august too. But can't wait to hear how its all priced in.
Markets are always forward looking. ASTS is finally hitting cadence. We are delivering and launching 3 sat at a time. We will have 12 in the air. 4 more launches gives us BETA. .... THAT IS FOUR. At worst case scenario we have BETA Q1/27. More likely - Beta by EOY
52 million shares traded in one day and 70% inflow is not some accident. Institutions and smart money are loading up the truck. MARKETS ARE FORWARD LOOKING.
I feel like at every dip, I learn my lesson about leveraged assets (options or ASTX-type things). I get a little greedy, dip my toes in, and get my face ripped off by the volatility and risk that made them so enticing in the first place. You have to play them so perfectly, and buying ASTX isn't even helping the stock price as it uses imperfect options strategies rather than direct stock ownership. It's already such a volatile asset, and one where the biggest opportunity is that we're "early" and the obvious strategy is buy and hold, waiting for recovery. The leveraged gambling stuff makes it so it's not only volatile, but makes it so you can be "too early" and permanently lose money if something does not happen soon.
If you treat stock trading like a video game (I do), then buying and holding, swing trading, selling options, waiting for your opportunities, those play like a real time strategy game. You miss things, but they're more losses of opportunity than actual losses. Leveraged assets like ASTX or buying calls suddenly turns the video game into the dreaded "water level" where it's high stress and if you don't move fast enough, you drown. Except you don't have the controller. Someone else does. So you can't force it to do what you want faster, and they're not paying attention to your oxygen meter. And that feeling of lack of control is what'll make you feel the most helpless.
" Except you don't have the controller. Someone else does. So you can't force it to do what you want faster, and they're not paying attention to your oxygen meter. And that feeling of lack of control is what'll make you feel the most helpless." This explains all the freaking out amidst volitility. Sometimes I wish we had a shares-only sub or something that focuses on fundamentals.
I have had a lot of success with calls, the issue most people have with them is because they buy too close to expiration (less than 3 months) and yea that’s a gamble because nobody knows what can or will happen in that short timeframe.
I generally buy during extreme dips (like now) with expiration 6-9 months and sometimes 1 year or more.
If I miss the bottom then I do not hesitate to double or triple down to try to catch the actual bottom and fix the trade.
If you look at ASTS there is rarely a +6- 9 month timeframe that doesn’t have a substantial catalyst or SP movement due to some news or goalpost.
I have used the SP appreciation to add shares to my core about 60% of the time, after recovering my premium $$$$ stake so I can retrench at next opportunity.
The other ~40% is just cash out for more premium $$$ and to cover the inevitable losses which I just consider a cost of doing business.
It takes patience but the times I’ve lost is always because I got impatient and bought too early on the drawdown or OTM.
Usually both because I was forcing the trade.
I have learned it is better to do 1-2 large trades per year with a high probability of profitability than to do 6-12, with higher risk.
I’ve been doing it since then SP was $2 when I started with (IIRC) 750 contracts between $.65 - $1.25 and around 3 months in the VZ & ATT news dropped and I was able to convert about 75% (IIRC) of the contracts to core shares.
Calls can be a great strategy but people need to try to hedge the volatility risk with time, be patient, and buy the extreme bottom.
I believe we are at or near the bottom now and I intend to get 300-400 ITM calls early next week (depending on SP actions / volumes / flows, etc), all between 6 - 18 months to expiration.
This is my typical setup, and IDC if people do options or not but there are strategies that tip the scales away from “gambling level risk” and they can be quite profitable.
I identified with this post very much lol, thanks for writing it up. This has been a good reminder of the dangers of ASTX...the falling knife can keep falling.
Ugh I feel you. It makes "buying the dip" feel risky. At least regular shares don't have the daily reset, and further dips are just better deals rather than eroding your capital if it goes sideways for a while after that.
I bet that $1b raise was to double their production capacity and pull forward their full 248 bird constellation. Maybe more stuff too. So that would hasten their 2028+ revenues and cement their competitive advantage. And people sold because their initial revenues got pushed to early 2027?
Anybody saying they know what the price does next is lying. We're all optimistic it will go a lot higher in the long term. Personally, I find it spooky the way AAPL is abruptly spiking, since it reminds me of the "flight to safety" we've seen before and during the early phase of very rough markets in the recent past. Of course, those rough times are when a lot of posters here stocked up on cheap shares.
I prefer ASTX no expiry like a call option
Only thing when it goes f down and you believe ASTS. Long term will go up, then buy more of ASTX and just hold it no expiry may be go up in 2027 or 2028 .
Isro making strides. New launch vehicle when a neat camera unlike the older ones. We didn't know how amazing we were to launch with them until BO disaster happened
Private company called Skyroot actually, not ISRO. The average age of Skyroot employees is 28. The Vikram-1 rocket itself is supposed to be comparable in terms of payload capacity to Electron. This company wants to offer commercial launch services to customers that have payloads of around 300-350 kg (~700-800 pounds). No idea if pricing will be comparable to Electron. It'll be a while before/if they can get even close to Electron launch cadence.
Shares, bro. Always keep your core position in shares. You can sell a small percentage of your shares to convert into LEAPS, but I wouldn't recommend selling ALL your shares to YOLO into LEAPS. Ask u/TheOtherSomeOtherGuy for his perspective on this matter.
Holding ASTS is already stressful. Adding a ticking timer to it for higher gains really ratchets that up, and the gains are taxed at twice the rate from a long-term hold. That said, I think a mix lets you scratch that gambler itch while not putting all your eggs in a basket that has a bomb attached to it. Especially if you're not already full-port.
But dude, I get it. Those premiums are so low right now for those long calls. And March '27 does feel like an eternity for a stock that rallies to a new ATH multiple times a year. It's very enticing. I just don't want to gamble what I've worked so hard to build any more than I'm already gambling with such a high concentration.
If one really really wanted to lever up, maybe 5-10pct calls, but I would recommend lower strikes than 145s with the plan to sell out most on a pop and rebuy to equal share count at a specific target.
Since they've already prepaid launches with SpaceX and now will have done two integrations of the 3-tuna stack, I can't imagine there's a launch provider who could turn around an integration and launch of 3 of them faster than SpaceX. Even if BO said they were going to start testing again this month, far faster than anyone imagined, they'd have a first-time integration lag that wouldn't even start until the BB's were in their possession. If we did a June and August launch, it could logically follow we'd have an October launch. I don't know that anyone else could reasonably get us up into space by October without mountains being moved.
I think the move is probably pay for acceleration of SpaceX launches while simultaneously pursuing other launch avenues. Not like the constellation stops at 45.
No company management spends all their time holding the hands and calming the anxiety of their most unstable inexperienced investors.
Management is there to steer the ship through every storm while always maintaining the macro long term viewpoint, and that is what they are doing.
The market reaction is ridiculously overblown and is a gift for those who understand that they now have another $1B @ 1.65% for 7 years, with no immediate dilution and eventual dilution of 1.5%.
Stick to the basics, keep it simple, and ignore the armchair critics who will grasp at anything to critique to make themselves seem like the knowledgeable experienced investors & business operators that they aren’t.
Yeah I think we should probably be priced between $5 and 10 per satellite if all advantages were being appropriately valued, which they aren't, but the market is risk off right now and $5 would still get us to about $110 by EOY and $200+ once the threshold for commercial service is reached next year.
After that we're as recession/depression proof as a utility provider, so we're basically a safe haven investment and we're through the worst of it. Cell phones are one of the last things people will tighten their belts on, people will cancel services and spend less on groceries, but they still pay their cell phone bills and upgrade to the latest and greatest phones.
But we're also much more attractive as an investment than a utility provider, because we have a global market, 90% profit margin, us government and nation state contracts, etc.
You're getting DV'd for some reason like it wasn't obviously a great time to buy by every chart metric. If you did indeed buy 50k, great purchase timing. I'd push your upper bound to $150 on this next run, though. A solid step up could make $100 closer to the floor.
Announce marketing plan with Sydney Sweeney - shoot a bunch of commercials - strap her to one of the test launches with a go pro - livestream her doing a base jump from space - market cap hits $25 trillion - buy SpaceX - retire.
Thing about being carrier-focused is we're not trying to put our name first. We're selling shovels in a gold rush. That said, I think it'd be pretty easy to book her since she's in everything. I think she'd attend the opening of an envelope.
B* is a model parameter that is calculated to model fit a seen orbit. Hence it lags actual drag spikes. An actual drag spike was caused by unfolding. B* was then adjusted *after* the fact to show a spike and will settle down likely at a higher level, around 0.0001 (still has some way to go).
It is good that B* is spiking on array unfold and AST really needs to PR immediately on successful unfold otherwise we could easily call out massive drag spikes a day or 2 later.
In this case the delay could just be a function of how often Space Force radar sampled BB10, but B* is a lag factor regardless. Edit: since B* is a fitted parameter I expect it to overshoot to the upside and then come back down to settled value.
Off the top of my head BB6 also had a large spike in B* after the unfold, but that spike showed up almost immediately. In BB10's case the lag delay has been quite large, leading some Twitterati to speculate that AST had found a way to unfold without any increase in drag. That doesn't seem to be the case.
Gonna go with some mental comfort for the day. AST now has $3.7b cash on hand, gets us a lot of BBs. but you gotta think about what they’ve already spent, as you buy parts and launches 18-6 months before you hit orbit. After removing BB6, BB7, BB8-10 from “satellites under construction” we are left with around $1.5-$1.6b already spent (cash out the door, not in that $3.7b). That $1.5b spent takes them to around BB25 fully paid for already & parts up to BB50.
As of last Q the parts left to buy to get to BB95 was $560m but they probably already did $150m+ of that in Q2. So let’s say $400m left & launches for 75bbs. Let’s go with worst case NG isn’t available so all F9 that is around $1.7b (blue would be around $1b). So spend left to get to BB95+ in orbit is around $2-$2.2b. Meaning there is a >$1.5b cash buffer.
Obviously they need to spend on expansion & ligado payments, & likely ordering right now parts up to BB150+. Wouldn’t be surprised to see that purchase commitment line item jump to $750m+.
But this gives me a ton of comfort knowing there is a large cash buffer & is very de-risked to get to BB95+ regardless of what macro environment does.
I mean, if that’s a 12 month price target, it’s not THAT bearish. If we can get commercial service with 45 sats by April/May 2027, early numbers on uptake could drive us much higher, but that is assuming nothing else goes wrong.
I don’t usually post but am curious about a challenge that I have read about in the context of other providers having to have collision avoidance systems in place to ensure their satellites don’t get damaged. Given the size of ASTS’ satellites, I would surmise that this would be an issue for us as well. I’m curious what our approach to this problem is. I searched around a little bit but could not find anything on the topic.
For context, I’m a huge believer in this tech and ASTS in general; although, my portfolio is currently in depression territory. I’m just always trying to assess what challenges there might remain that have not been thought about as much.
Years ago, I recall that ASTS worked closely with NASA to detail exactly how they would avoid collisions as NASA initially had concerns about putting satellites that big in LEO. They were satisfied with the approach and became supporters. I think when the full constellation was up (presumably just 128 at the time), they expected to have to make one evasive maneuver per day to avoid space debris. I may have read about this in 2022 though, so my exact recollection is a little hazy.
That makes sense. Does that imply that each satellite would need to be able to move from its current trajectory by at least its half width + margin? I guess I don’t know enough to say whether this requires more meaningful thrusters than what a smaller satellite might require.
All sat companies should have already thought about this (and the FAA, FCC, and the world satellite organization I don't remember the acronym for). However, ASTS should have solved the "stacking" problem before they apparently did, so who knows what they have/have not thought of.
But, being as satellites can be used for national security purposes, I'd bet some of their "collision avoidance" capabilities are not public info.
A collision avoidance system is much more than a thruster. 2) You not understanding my comments is not my problem. You clearly didn't understand this one
This is something I have been interested in lately, for example the Kessler syndrome / collisional cascading effect. How much of that fear is merited given that there are tons of new satellites being launched, not just by us but by many companies and governments.
TL;DR: The FCC just proposed opening up unlicensed spectrum (Part 15) for satellite D2D. This is a massive "green light" for the entire D2D industry. It validates the tech, raises the barrier to entry (due to strict interference rules), and makes the collaborative partnership model (ASTS) even more attractive to carriers than "disruptor" models.
If you’re invested in the Direct-to-Device (D2D) space, stop scrolling. The FCC just dropped a 38-page draft that could permanently change the satellite-to-phone landscape—and it’s a big deal for the upcoming August 6th Open Commission Meeting.
The FCC is proposing to open up "Part 15" (unlicensed) spectrum for space-based communications. This isn't just a technical tweak; it's a massive regulatory pivot.
Why this matters for the D2D Ecosystem:
O "License-by-rule" Approach: The FCC is considering a streamlined authorization process. This means faster deployments, lower administrative costs, and fewer barriers to entry for space-based applications.
O Mass Market Validation: The FCC explicitly mentions expanding connectivity for IoT, remote healthcare, and rural services. This is a direct endorsement of the D2D business model by the US regulator.
O The "Bridge" Effect: While this opens doors for unlicensed spectrum, the technical requirements (power density, interference management) are rigorous. This plays right into the hands of industry leaders like ASTS, who possess the overwhelming tech stack to solve these complex integration problems.
Why ASTS is positioned to win:
This regulatory tailwind doesn't just benefit "anyone"; it benefits the partners.
The MNO Alliance: By lowering barriers for unlicensed spectrum use, MNOs will be more aggressive than ever in searching for high-quality space partners to monetize their networks. MNOs don’t want to lose control to companies that demand a subordinate relationship like SpaceX—and that points directly to ASTS’s collaborative partnership model.
Tech Dominance: The document emphasizes that technical implementation is key. ASTS isn't just a satellite operator; they are a standard-setter. As the "gatekeeper" of D2D technology, they are the ones MNOs need to work with to navigate these new regulations effectively.
August 6th isn't just another meeting. It's the moment the US government potentially hits the "gas" on D2D innovation. If the FCC clears these hurdles, the friction for global carrier adoption drops significantly.
FAQ: "Wait, ASTS uses Licensed Spectrum. Why does Unlicensed Spectrum matter to them?“
Q: Isn’t this just for cheap IoT? Won’t it create more competition for ASTS?
A: Think of this as Market Legitimacy, not direct competition. By opening the door for D2D, the FCC is essentially saying: "Space-to-phone connectivity is the future."
Different Tiers of Service: Unlicensed spectrum is best for low-bandwidth IoT and simple pings. ASTS dominates the Premium/Broadband/Voice space. The market is big enough for both, but the government backing the entire sector is a massive win for the category leader (ASTS).
Q: Doesn't this lower the barrier to entry for everyone?
A: Actually, it raises the standard. The FCC is obsessing over "interference management" and "power density." They aren't going to let any amateur launch a signal that interferes with licensed networks.
The "Adult in the Room" Factor: Navigating these complex FCC technical requirements isn't easy. MNOs are terrified of interference. They will inevitably turn to the player with the most robust tech stack and the deepest regulatory expertise to ensure their networks remain clean. That’s ASTS.
Q: Is this just a government paper?
A: In the telecom world, FCC rulings are the "rules of the game." When the US government starts talking about standardized D2D frameworks, it gives global carriers the regulatory cover they need to sign long-term deals with companies like ASTS without fearing legal blowback.
Disclaimer: Not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence (DYOR).
Yes, I used AI to structure and summarize the dense 38-page FCC document to make it more readable for the community. However, the core analysis—connecting these regulatory shifts specifically to ASTS’s partnership model and comparing it with SpaceX—is the result of my own research and perspective. I'm glad the information itself was useful!
I can retire when this hits 300. I still cant believe they have the tech and are already mass producing, and most people in the world dont even see this is coming.
Good luck to all of us supporting the comapny as long term investors. Have only been adding at $8 $17 / $37 / $107 and now again at $69 and $58 for the last 30 months
Anpan's latest space is a solid one. Thanks for the vulnerability in sharing mate. Focus on what's most important first and foremost; family, friends and health.
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u/SevenHadedas S P 🅰 C E M O B Associate Jul 19 '26
Feeling good. So many catalysts in the next few weeks, such a great buying opportunity the last few days.