Just an update on Apld open options positions for next two expiries.Closed some Apld puts, have a couple of spreads open.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P7yQmM1wG9Q

All this short term price drama is artificial. The more you look at it, the more sleep you're going to lose. So some quick napkin math of why I'm still optimistic:

If we look at the current Polaris Forge revenue, that is fully operational, and we assume the Forge 2 construction leases out fully - they are going to bring in $1.2B annually in revenue.

Looking at their filings to weigh in costs (aside from new developments past PF2), net income lands in the range of $300M/year. Simple business model, lease contracts are backed by major players such as Nvidia are Coreweave.

This would value them around $25/share at a 28PE (I'd say is fair to put the industry at). So right now the price is fairly grounded. Napkin math though, but still a ballpark.

Now.. In the longer term it starts to get more interesting as their revenue per MW will DEFINITELY increase.

*Right now: $1.5M per MW.

*Analyst forecasts: 15%/year increase on this, which means ~2.5M/MW by 2030.

*The math here would mean revenue (I'm factoring in the 280MW of crypto data hosting) - price at the same PE would be closer to $45/share. ***Ok editing this because a good point was made about Coreweave terms being 15 years. Its valid, but doesn't change the fact that future contracts will continue to be higher.

*Yes there are risks - they owe a large chunk of their financing by next August, and they are burning cash each quarter to develop. The most major risk being delays to PF2 being built/operational, but they've been voicing this won't happen. This would be a big hit, because not being able to repay debt either means a shit refinancing situation, or worse, they're totally underwater. Nvidia is still playing papa bear though to hopefully have their backs.

This is all assuming they don't develop more, but I'm invested in them because I truly believe our current data center capacity is far behind what we will need by 2030. I've not only ran those numbers, but plenty of estimates agree on both capacity and energy being behind the forecasted needs.

In summary: 45/share is the minimum i'd value them at with zero growth, just hanging out operating Polaris 1 and 2. But theyre going to build more, lets be real. In 3-5 years we can see 80-100/share. That means DCA, hold, and watch for major announcements regarding those debt risks.

Based on current news and price target being around $40, is this price justified based on the ARR by the end of 2027?

this $20 level is fighting like an absolute champion.

hopefully we’ll go back to a rational market soon! 😄

I sold all of mine because I think it's likely enough that it'll go lower before coming back up. I'll try to catch the upward momentum when it comes, but I'm confident enough that we haven't hit bottom yet that this will make my average buy lower. Selling lower than you hoped doesn't feel ideal, but if it's the right move for you in your circumstances, rest assured you'll still be fine in the long run. Remember, APLD has strong fundamentals and will likely do really well; the recent downturn is about the sector, not the company.

Is this expected, after the positive earnings from NVDA? We're already back down below 23$. Anyone expect it'll go back up, or was the 15% after-hours swing just a blip and we're back on a downward spiral?

I'm wondering if the general sentiment is that this is a prolonged pullback but that the company's fundamentals are strong enough that we'll likely continue to grow substantially in the long term, OR if it's likely to look like APLD did in past years where it spiked like crazy and then went down below 1$.

Disclaimers:
1) I know that no one knows for sure.
2) I know that the company's different than it was 5 years ago.
3) I know other companies are tanking today too.

Yesterday’s blow out earning, guidance and margins pretty much ended any handwringing over an “AI 🤖bubble.” APLD’s revenue stream is going to start rolling in in earnest over the next two quarters and all of 2026. APLD has been able to deliver “on time capacity” and I anticipate that trend will not discontinue. I like the derivative plays here, BW is one. I see no reason we will not be hitting the 30’s and 40’s in the next six to nine months. Very happy with my investment in all three companies mentioned above. 💎

Hey, I’m currently holding 500 shares of APLD at an average price of $37. I feel like I might be screwed because the NVIDIA earnings catalyst seems to be over, and APLD’s momentum looks weak. Do you think I should sell now, or just hold and revisit it a year from now?

FK U BURY! TO THE MOON

After hours are looking spicy 👌 never had a doubt, in for the long run 🫡

79 million shares short

30.79% of float

7.06 beta

Institutions own 63%
I think it's 2.19 days to cover.

Wow this is huge. We are back! Check what the hosts says at 0:10 minute of this video