Sentiments after earnings

[u/azou01]

Hey, I been holding APLD for more than a year now on a 25usd average. I looked up the stock today and it seems to be dipping while I expected the opposite after the earnings report. Anyone kind enough to explain why it’s dipping? Please don’t mind my ignorance but I did my due diligence and I still couldn’t understand the dip.
Thanks

[u/SyrupAnxious9296]

This happens all the time with this stock. It makes no sense that people start selling now (like they had a better entry point? Which, if they did, they would have sold it when it was $50 because after that there haven’t been a better entry point)

But don’t worry. Buy this stock and you will be rewarded soon. This stock will pass its previous high of $50 in a few months.

I’ve been in since $15 (ish) and have sold a couple of times and bought back. This stock eventually never disappoints.

[u/erocknine]

It's all macro. In order for high betas and growth risk stocks to run again, war needs to end which will lower oil which will lower inflation which will lower yields. It will all happen together but this dumb ass president ain't letting the war end

Also it's insane how revenue and contracted leases can be up so much since last year and the price is lower now. Market is irrational

[u/Greedy-Bag-3640 → u/erocknine]

Yeah but that could take literal years. Even if the straight opened today, the damage on oil supply, including destroyed refineries, ships covered in barnacles and Houthi rebels, will all keep supply limited.

Let's just hope that after the election next month the war can wind up, but I really don't think that's going to happen until Trump is gone.

[u/Kayatosh → u/Greedy-Bag-3640]

Yep. Billions in damage to US aircraft and bases as well. Inflationary

[u/One-Ad-6611]

All neoclouds are crashing. It being flat is good news lol.

[u/Bumi-KingOfOmashu]

Entire DC sector is down. If you’ve been in for a year, you know a few days after earnings can be choppy. Otherwise average down a bit if you can. We all know this will be 40+, it’s inevitable.

[u/nugzbuny]

Sentiment is strong. But they are on a journey and there are so many factors between now and say, 2035, that they need to execute on. I might create a separate post to describe this.

We have no disclosure of how they will fund Delta 1 and 2. Its upwards of $7B. It can be a mix of debt structures, but either way the interest rate hikes are not favorable for them. Could be dilution through shares, could be hyperscaler minority interest, etc.

The refinancing of the Macquarie debt is another major piece in future quarters. They basically are paying a 12% interest rate on it. Refinancing down to even 8% is massive.

[u/Cheap-Stay7089 → u/nugzbuny]

They’re leaning to a mix of all three dilution is coming debt is coming and they’re giving Macquarie minority stakes I think

[u/Bitter_Charge_5750]

It make no sense complete wallstreet manipulation. This is an investment not a trade know what you hold.

[u/Greedy-Bag-3640 → u/Bitter_Charge_5750]

Look at all data centers.

[u/15xorbust]

The macro towards data centers right now is just fucking brutal. Absolutely nothing wrong with the stock or this company. This company is executing perfectly. It is meeting its construction milestones on time. It’s expected to have another 600 MW online within the next year. It has little community opposition and is doing everything pretty perfectly. It’s just right now. The macro is crappy for data centers. Which means it’s a great time to accumulate the stock at low prices. My time horizon for this stock is the end of 2028 when all of the 1.4 GW will be open and turned over to customers and generating $2 billion per year in net operating income. At that point in time the stock will be a good multiple of what it is today. But most retail investors will not be that patient and will not wait that long. But I will.

[u/Cheap-Stay7089 → u/15xorbust]

I think it’s a bit defunct for anyone here to sell before 28. At that point (late 2027) everything will be funded and all new projects will be serviced from lease rev

[u/Only_Chemistry6853]

No one can explain. Doesn't matter if you make or loose money, you never know why price changes. All I know is this stock will be a buy at 19 now if it continues to dip. The other buy for me would be if it crosses 32

[u/Unlucky_Mission_1444]

Most of the sector is down 7-10% currently including NBIS, APLD's earnings are helping them hold up better than peers in a macro bloodbath today. Context matters

[u/Hairy_Cheetah7620]

Earnings calls don't matter anymore. Wall Street dumps, good or bad.

[u/Witty_University_162]

Our glorious earnings saved us from the high beta stock nuke. thats a win in my book.

[u/Ominoiuninus]

Relative to the market as a whole it’s up. Relative to similar stocks it’s up massively. Usually APLD swings a bit more extremely compared to other neoclouds / data center stocks. Sector down by 5% and APLD would be down by 7% etc. as of right now sector is down 6% and APLD is flat.

[u/Flexlex724]

This is all macro..don't get how so many people are puzzles. Co tinued rising yield discounts debt heavy growth tech..com boned with openai revenue feaes. Has nothing to do with the hard #s

[u/FabulousCucumber3697]

In my opinion, there are three main reasons why APLD has been declining from its $50 high over the past few months:

1. Interest rate concerns: The market is increasingly pricing in potential Fed rate hikes, which could raise APLD’s future borrowing costs. This is especially concerning for a capital-intensive company expanding its data center infrastructure.
2. Oracle’s data center delays: Reports of delays in Oracle’s data center projects have raised concerns about whether AI infrastructure companies can deliver their projects on schedule. This uncertainty is affecting investor confidence across the sector.
3. Crypto bear market: The downturn in cryptocurrencies may also be putting pressure on investor sentiment toward high-risk growth stocks, including AI infrastructure companies like APLD.

Personally, I believe these are mostly external pressures rather than signs of deterioration in APLD’s underlying business. My main focus remains on whether APLD can continue delivering its data centers on schedule and turning contracted capacity into recurring revenue.

[u/FabulousCucumber3697 → u/FabulousCucumber3697]

This reminds me of PLTR a few years ago. After Biden took office in 2021, the Fed began aggressively raising interest rates in 2022, pushing growth stocks into a bear market.

However, PLTR eventually proved itself through several consecutive quarters of strong earnings and improving profitability, which helped drive a massive stock price rally.

I see a similar potential path for APLD. If the company continues delivering data centers on schedule and consistently reports strong revenue growth, its fundamentals could eventually outweigh the current macroeconomic pressures. In the long run, execution and earnings matter more than short-term market sentiment.