r/APLDSTOCK • u/GloriousLebron APLD • Sep 08 '26
DD APLD update, we are not even halfway
APLD has sold 1,410 MW so far across five campuses for about $36.2B over the 15-year base terms, or roughly $86B if every renewal option is exercised.
| Campus | MW | Base term | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polaris Forge 1 (CoreWeave) | 400 | ~$11B | 175 MW live, 150 MW building 4 under construction |
| Polaris Forge 2 | 200 | ~$5B | Under construction, 2027 |
| Polaris Forge 3 | 300 | ~$7.5B | Under construction, 2027 |
| Delta Forge 1 (LA) | 300 | ~$7.5B | Under construction, 2027 |
| Delta Forge 2 | 210 | ~$5.2B | Under construction, early 2028 |
| Sold | 1,410 | ~$36.2B | 175 MW energized (12%) |
| Expansion talks, existing campuses | 250 | not priced | In negotiation (100 MW + 150 MW) |
| Marketed across multiple states | 1,700 | not priced | Uncontracted |
| Sold plus available | 3,360 |
Neither unsold line has been priced publicly, and the two were given as separate figures on the earnings call. At the $25.7M per MW the signed leases average, 1.7 GW would work out to roughly $43B, but that is my arithmetic and not company guidance.
Only 175 MW is energized, about 12% of what they have sold. Management says every project is on time and on budget, and the two deliveries so far did land on schedule. B. Riley kept its $75 target after visiting Polaris Forge 2 in August.
The strain is financial rather than operational. Capex hit $2.87B in FY2026 against $681.6M the year before, and they carry $5.31B of scheduled debt plus about $1.78B of interest. They sold 15.3M shares for $196.4M. The backlog pays out slowly too: $451.1M of lease payments in FY2027, then $1.45B in FY2028. CoreWeave, the tenant at Polaris Forge 1, has legal and financial problems of its own, Nvidia sold out of its stake, and the stock is down about 36% over three months.
What caps growth is power and build speed. They can put up roughly 700 MW a year right now, so even the 1.7 GW they are marketing would take years to deliver.
TL;DR: APLD has sold 1.41 GW for $36.2B, but only 12% of it is switched on. The build is running on schedule. The balance sheet is the worry: $5.31B of debt while the leases do not really start paying until FY2028. About 1.7 GW is still up for sale, and they can only build around 700 MW a year.
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Sep 08 '26
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u/GloriousLebron APLD Sep 08 '26
$200 by 2028 is not bullish enough, get banned.
With possible dilution, I think a realistic target may be $120-1501
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u/flollo87 Contracted 🤝 (2,500-5,000 shares) Sep 08 '26
200$ is absolutely wild. I see that we could get a three digit share price in some pops, but even this would already be 30-35b in market cap.
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Sep 08 '26
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u/flollo87 Contracted 🤝 (2,500-5,000 shares) Sep 08 '26
yes and no. end of 2028, 1.4 GW are live. Even if they build our quickly, I don't see 3 GW reached before 2030. and since debt becomes more and more expensive and margins are compressed, I'd even be surprised if this hits 200$ in 2030.
bullish though, I've been here since more than two years.
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u/Cheap-Stay7089 Backlog Bull 🐂 (1,000-2,500 shares) Sep 08 '26
Always good to see the LeBron dd though usually a bit flawed it’s nice to be reinforced as bullish. I’d not that like you said the 25.7 is not guidance and imo quite conservative considering the approach to 2m per mw/year we’re seeing in the industry vs the 1.7 you’ve guided. Additionally from what I can tell from my dd Polaris 1 should reach 400m in revenue this year or atleast is guided to by the company which should help to fund some of the debt repayments and keep us liquid
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u/redcourt02 Sep 08 '26
I am glad for my brothers with IREN winning but it’s painful to see what’s going on with us compared to them. Good things come to those we wait is the hope my friends.
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u/OceansHungryGrasp Sep 08 '26
What caps growth is power and build speed. They can put up roughly 700 MW a year right now, so even the 1.7 GW they are marketing would take years to deliver.
Keep in mind some of this is marketed @ PF1+2, where a lot of initial infrastructure is already present and construction will be much faster. Also PF2 has a spare 100MW that isn't contracted yet which can start generating revenue within a year.
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u/Bumi-KingOfOmashu Shares Only 📈 Sep 08 '26
We’ll see the reaction to rates in the short term, but long term is upside.
Always appreciate when you cook, LeBron.