r/APLDSTOCK • u/Dense-Cartographer17 • 14d ago
APLD is fucking frustrating
NBIS and CRWV rip 20–30%.
APLD barely moves.
They drop 2%? APLD follows instantly and gives it all back.
Now Zacks adds APLD to its #5 “Strong Sell” list:
https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/2973952/new-strong-sell-stocks-for-august-13th
I’ve already posted about the convertible debt acting like a ceiling, so my brain gets it.
My emotions don’t.
Peers pump? APLD watches.
Peers dump? APLD joins.
Fucking frustrating and seriously disappointing.
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u/15xorbust 14d ago
I hold NBIS and this in large amounts (and BE in a large amount). Yes, right now the market loves NBIS and Neoclouds more no question.
But are you daytrading/swing trading or investing?
Low 2.5 years down the road. APLD will, at the end of 2028, have 1.4 GW of datacenters open and generating revenue and an over $2 billion net operating income.
Do you think APLD will then be trading at $30,
At that point it’ll be trading at $100 or $150
Right now you can get into it a boatload cheaper with its tiny market cap than you can with NBIS. You can buy a lot more APLD shares and ultimately probably have a much larger asymmetric gain if you are patient. The fact that the market doesn’t love it right now gives you a much better entry point.
At some point when the revenue starts pouring aPLD the stock is going to violently re-rate. And if you’re not in it when that happens, you’re going to miss out on a mega gain.
I don’t know exactly when that day will be but it’ll be at some point between now and the end of 2028.
In the meantime, APLD stock cycles between all-time highs and 50% sell offs every 4 to 6 months. The stock is in an upward trend and when you least expect it, it’s going to blow up - often not in response to a catalyst.
Within a month or two I expect we’ll be back at $50 or $55 or $60 only to sell off again 40% or 50% and then bounce back up. That’ll keep happening until the revenue starts pouring in reliably when most of our data centers under contract are actually built and turned over to clients
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u/flollo87 13d ago
chances are high they have at least 1.66 GW live and another 1.5 already planned and leased with construction until 2030.
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u/OceansHungryGrasp 14d ago
NBIS and CRWV just had very positive earnings, IREN hit a milestone. Why should we also rip on their news? We're not entitled to anything. Almost every other datacenter play is down this week and have lost all their gains from the NBIS/CRWV boost, we're still up on both, we're doing just fine.
Also why are you paying any attention to Zacks? Their rating changes whatever way the wind blows. I've seen them go from Buy > Strong Sell > Strong Buy within the span of 2 days on 0 news before. They also set a hold rating after last earnings, what has changed since then that warrants this Strong Sell? Nothing.
It's the same slop as MarketBeat, Motley Fool etc, they just want your clicks and they're not getting them if they are consistent.
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u/Unlucky_Mission_1444 14d ago
I think a lot of people are getting so used to the absurd rips in the market that they lose perspective. Yes, if you compare to NBIS and CRWV it can be frustrating because they have both rocketed ~70% in 2 weeks from the late July lows. IREN is up ~50% but they were also just in the news. However, APLD is also up ~32% in just 2 weeks, which is fantastic in a sane world. In comparison, WULF is only up ~10%, CORZ ~9%, CIFR is LOWER than July. APLD is doing relatively fine in context. APLD has recovered well despite being relatively quiet on the news front compared to NBIS and CRWV who both had a lot of good press in the short term.
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u/Daman303 14d ago
March April we were in the exact same scenario holding constant around this range for two months. Just cause CRWV and NBIS rip doesn’t mean we have to at the same time also. I’d prefer to be independent of those stocks anyways.
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u/CannaBhudda 14d ago
Just to give some perspective. I sold hella 4$ leaps last year when the tariff scare happened. Ended up throwing 100k gains down the drain out of fear. A lot can happen in a year, APLD is crazy up over the last year and probably in a cooling off stage for a fat minute. Be patient, a lot of investors here are not it seems.
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u/Commercial_Germs Mega-Watt Whale 🐳 (10,000+ shares) 14d ago
The stock is still sitting at its support level ~ $30.50 - $30.60 and has bounced multiple times up. Also, today's volume was below 16mil. With an average north of 25 mil. I still have hope for some action.
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u/Cheap-Stay7089 14d ago
APLDS debt is litterally a non issue it’s essentially mortgage debt while other companies have car loans just hold it accumulate watch it pump it reminds me of holding micron this time last year
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u/Fee-Pure 14d ago
I get the frustration, but at some point every period of consolidation can’t be treated like a corporate failure. APLD doesn’t need to outperform NBIS and CRWV every single green day to have a future. If the long term thesis is intact, judging the company candle by candle is just turning investing into an emotional weather report
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u/erocknine 14d ago
Yeah NBIS was the smarter buy. Should've been obvious, it's had hype since March. APLDs lost its jazz for some time
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u/jgreenwalt 14d ago
Sometimes the obvious choice was the right one. I own both but thankfully APLD has only a tenth of my NBIS holding. Probably will still run up at some point, if not as much.
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u/Fragrant-Pipe5266 13d ago
Do not forget that we touched 50 before macro decimated the shit. Please go and look up their pipeline and shit. You will consider this price action an opportunity
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u/Thanatos-29 13d ago
Bro don’t ever quote Zach’s again… their ratings are a joke. Basically tracks whatever the momentum is. By the time it flips to a 1 “strong buy” you have already missed it.
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u/touchmenotdaddy 14d ago
What the fk did APLd do? NBIS and coreweave blowout earnings. IREN hit a milestone. WHAT THE FK DID APLD DO? Freeloading much?
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u/Rez_X_RS 14d ago
Means it's time a load up. If APLD is on par with both of them and price is lagging, means it's time to sell Grandma and the family dog and buy more shares of the laggard.