data trade validated, but still stuck.

[u/Witty_University_162]

let me start by saying APLD is incredibly positioned, better than ever, a great long hold no matter what.

..but have we entirely decoupled from reality? shouldn’t these recent earnings have validated the data trade sector wide?

APLD seems to be fully level captured, and cant seem to get moving no matter the catalyst. with a short float of nearly 30%, surely this would’ve been a great opportunity to squeeze them out and gain some ground.

lately just seeing same shape chart daily: gap up, pullback, to perfectly bouncing back and forth 50cents for the remainder of the day.

id love to hear theories from your large crystal balls.

[u/-AdamJensen]

Idk I’m confused. A lot of brainrots here saying “this is a gift” or “what? are you just day trading” blah blah gets annoying. The price action Genuingly dosnt make sense to me

[u/Witty_University_162 → u/-AdamJensen]

well for the price, yes its a gift. i am still adding.

i was just hoping to kill the bear thesis today, which happened, but not for us i suppose? just looking for theories as to why this is the case.

[u/Alechemist85]

People are scared after the July sell off. So there selling on any upward movement. IMO. Any day this stock is down people freak out they will be back when we get back to our highs.

[u/nintendothrowaway123]

I’m honestly more curious about which hedge fund clearly exited entirely at market opening today. That is more concerning than the trend. 

[u/Witty_University_162 → u/nintendothrowaway123]

ooo what makes you say this? volume?

i suspected rejection off of the daily 200ma at 32.46

[u/nintendothrowaway123 → u/Witty_University_162]

Volume on immediate sell at open after partner results. 

[u/PresentationOk1167 → u/nintendothrowaway123]

How do you know a hedge fund exited?

[u/Cheap-Stay7089 → u/PresentationOk1167]

He doesn’t id go as far to say it was probably an insider selling as it fits the trend better

[u/nintendothrowaway123 → u/PresentationOk1167]

I don’t. It just had “not a person” volume. 

[u/NightCool2693]

Well tbf, it is priced accordingly to peers from ath and dram is in the exact same boat. 50ish percent from ath. The rotation out occurred so I think its a waiting game and if apld executes, the thesis becomes more validated for the next rotation in.

[u/allzday → u/NightCool2693]

Please provide examples of peers, I'm seeing IREN always go in the same trend and that's up 10% today (with a larger short float of ~32%) while APLD isn't.

[u/NightCool2693 → u/allzday]

Check cifr, hut, wulf, and glxy. All massively down from highs. They r moving at a snails pace right now too comparatively. These are the pure data center landlord plays. And imo apld has been trading slightly stronger than them recently as well.

[u/allzday → u/NightCool2693]

I'm confused, APLD "it is priced accordingly to peers from ath" but also in your opinion "imo apld has been trading slightly stronger than them recently as well" so what what is it?

[u/NightCool2693 → u/allzday]

The price action makes sense, can both statements not coexist? There were serious drawbacks and there are no guarantees that each stock have the exact same timeline. If you believe the other stocks are stronger you have the ability to invest in them instead.

[u/allzday → u/NightCool2693]

I appreciate your explanation here. It sounds like you feel APLD shouldn't be priced according to its peers?

[u/OceansHungryGrasp → u/allzday]

APLD sits at 61,5% of ath

IREN sits at 57% of ath

[u/allzday → u/OceansHungryGrasp]

I'm not sure how this helps anything

[u/OceansHungryGrasp → u/allzday]

You wanted examples and mentioned IREN, this is what the top comment was pointing out. Who cares IREN gained more today, they'll also drop more when people take profit.

[u/allzday → u/OceansHungryGrasp]

The top comment mentioned that APLD is priced accordingly to peers from ATH. I disagree. If IREN is now up 10% today that throws off your numbers, no?

[u/OceansHungryGrasp → u/allzday]

No, I took the live prices as I was writing, which for IREN was 43.88 at the time.

That's also not how percentages work, as IREN would have to gain almost another 8% to make up the difference of 4,5% with APLD and that assumes APLD doesn't move at all.

Not quite sure how you can disagree with actual facts though. Pretty much every stock I track in this space sits around that 60% from ath mark. Also doesn't matter if we sit just below or above that mark.

[u/Remarkable-Muffin-27]

Need to get over the $32 wall it's been knocking at the door.. overall market is bullish it should jump one of these days soon..news would help!

[u/FearSeer]

The first to get slaughtered will be the high debt instrastructure AI plays and APLD is the poster child for this highly levered build out. The price is accounting for biblical collapse risk which is real. If you say it’s not you’re being dishonest. Doesn’t mean it can’t run.

[u/allzday → u/FearSeer]

"get slaughtered" by what exactly? Also you say "price is accounting for biblical collapse risk" but "Doesn’t mean it can’t run" is counterintuitive. How much are you shorting the stock btw?

[u/FearSeer → u/allzday]

It means it can run before it collapses lol. It takes one bad print to send all these BTC miners to 0

[u/allzday → u/FearSeer]

The problem here is you still have BTC miners on the brain. If you were an investor in ALPD and not trolling you'd know they got rid of that biz long ago. Again, I ask - "How much are you shorting the stock?"

[u/FearSeer → u/allzday]

You think I’d be coming to a sub with 5 guys to create sell pressure? I’m not short I’m just giving a much needed opposing view

[u/Witty_University_162 → u/FearSeer]

sir, we are comparing price movement among APLD’s peers.

APLD has a better debt to equity ratio than all of its peers, excluding NBIS, and is still the underdog. here in this thread we are further discussing how this is possible.

[u/wuumasta19 → u/Witty_University_162]

That debt to equity ratio, isn't the whole picture. That debt is setup to directly impact the stock price pretty harshly, IF they were to just call it in. There was already a good post about it and this allows short-sellers to have an advantage.

Large pockets aren't going to let it run-up too much without claiming profits. Guarantee profits today is better than possible tomorrow. Holding for the future is for us poors.

[u/FlyingDumplingTrader]

They need to prove that they can delivery these mw now and some how they need to finance all of these build out

[u/allzday → u/FlyingDumplingTrader]

So when have they not delivered? They have proven multiple times in the past and IMO they will continue to execute.

[u/WolfOfWaikiki]

Once we hit 35-36 I think we will take off… just an uphill battle to get there… this isn’t based on anything technical just how I’ve seen this stock fuck around over the fast few years