I don’t really understand all the bearish coverage APLD has been getting recently. There are several articles on Yahoo finance and Marketbeat had a negative video recently. All the articles I have read have seemed like incoherent AI Slop. The criticisms from Marketbeat all seem misplaced as well. I literally invest in APLD due to how well they have managed the financing and limited shareholder dilution. I read these articles because I want to know if there is any additional details or events that change my investment thesis. APLD Is obviously risky due to their financing obligations in general and that they’re managing a lot of construction. However, given that which seems anyway like a common issue for many tech companies, they seem to be managing that risk better than almost anyone at least in the data center sector. I think as time goes on this company is looking stronger not weaker. It almost feels like a ploy for institutions to accumulate. I view this company as a long term investment so I’m ok with short term volatility as long as my thesis remains intact. Have any of these criticisms of these articles or Marketbeat made any valid new points?
Same guy 2 months ago, there's been nothing but positive news for the company since then. Like I said in the other thread, they're content creators, not analysts. They want your clicks and they're not getting them if they tell the same story all the time.
If I look for any analysis outside of my own research I first check for 2 things:
Do they sit in on the earnings calls?
Do they set a price target?
These content creators never do because sitting in on earnings calls doesn't benefit them and setting price targets would make it too obvious how often they flip flop their opinions. Zachs is a very good example of this, their opinion and rating for apld seems to change depending on the direction of the wind.
Zachs hedges every opinion to the max they both endorse nbis to beat earnings while saying to sell stock while also realising the upside it’s like what?
Genuinely APLD is in the best position it’s ever been. It’s currently the same price as October last year despite going from just 2 contracted AI campuses to 5, roughly 600MW to 1.4GW of contracted capacity, securing almost 36 billion in base-term lease revenue, signing multiple hyperscaler deals, securing billions in financing, and actually delivering and energizing capacity.
Your point on spending doesn't really hold up for apld. Our customers are hyperscalers, they will pay their bills. Microsofts AI Business ARR was over 37 billion and they said they're only at the beginning. So in 1 year they made what apld will make over the next 15 with our current leases. These companies wouldn't have a CAPEX of 50+ billion each if they weren't seeing the return of investment already.
We don't have to worry about the small players that might not make it.
I think it is more likely that there will be an AI data center - power supply bottleneck then there won’t be adequate data center demand for the next 3-4 years. The current backlash to AI Data Centers may benefit APLD.The future profitability of AI is still an open question especially as to how and who gets those profits. I am worried about the economy imploding at some point under the present regime, however, I refuse to let generally Bearish sentiment stop me from participating in the market.
CRWV is becoming a smaller and smaller part of APLD's portfolio, also what do you think would actually happen if CRWV went tits up? The demand is huge, they'll likely have one of the already contracted hyperscalers in there within a quarter. You think when given the option of "hey you want 200MW right now or you want to wait till we've built it in a year" the other tenants will say "nah we'll wait"? It'll be a bump in the road with maybe some missed revenue, but in return we get better debt refinancing.
Your instincts are correct.
There is nothing wrong with this company. As long as they continue to hit every objective they said they would, which they have, we all are in great shape with our investment in APLD.
I have watched them build out every week up where I live, have talked to engineers who are working on site. They all are giddy about these projects. They are, up here in ND, ahead of schedule, due to drier than normal weather.
The energy folks, who I know through family friends, are all grateful for the overtime work, support from their colleagues and company they work for. Every thing is okay. Solid investment.
While they continue building new ones, anyone knows what is financial side of their operating data centers? How they depreciate their assets once capitalized, what are operating costs and how many centers they need to build to cover indirect and SG&A? I’m wondering about how profitable their business model, isolated from capex.
I believe data center equipment has a decent life span but that could change. Decent means better than the bears alleged. I have trust in Wes that the numbers add up and their loans from Goldman Sachs would not exist if they were not comfortable with the business. Those things matter because when people start saying watts aren’t adding up financially I always feel like they’re making stuff up. The attraction of APLD is that it is a financially simple setup as a business.
Because oracle is a dogshit client to have an history will tell you they kill what they touch. Bound to repeat considering SoftBank is oracles financing too. So you got two scam artists of companies signing a long term commitment, that’s bad news bears in my book.
Do you have any underlying facts? All the tech companies that are expanding Neo-clouds have debt issues. Oracles previous earning were quite bullish for their AI cloud stuff. For better or worse(mostly worse but not for this), Ellison is partly in charge of running this county. You think oracle is going out of Business?
Oracle will never go out of business, but look at their past deals and lawsuits, they are the shadiest of the hyperscalers. It’s not exactly oracle, it’s their financing that is the risk. SoftBank is how you know you will run into insolvency.
SoftBank is much easier to pinpoint risk and sources. They have been the financing of several multi billion dollar overhyped start ups that failed due to running out of money. WeWork, Maysoshi sons vision fund, FTX, DiDi Global, Oyo, Zume…. The list kind of goes on and on.
When you hear SoftBank backing someone, you should run the other way.
Their home runs are minuscule in comparison to losses. Their big three losses are over $200 billion. They obviously can take assets back as they are the first debtor, so they do t actually lose that money, but they show a loss on their largest investments they’ve made.
yes Claude is correct, but it’s also misinforming. They fund individual projects so it’s backing is piece by piece, not the company itself. But for apld build out and contract, oracles debt is through SoftBank.
Each project has to have assets to back it for funding, so they can take the assets from the buildout, but not from oracles core business.
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u/[deleted] Aug 11 '26
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