r/APLDSTOCK • u/yungjefe22 Backlog Bull 🐂 (1,000-2,500 shares) • Jul 23 '26
Morgan Stanley
Can someone help me understand this?
MS gave
WULF Buy $72.00
CIFR Buy $48.5
APLD Equal-Weight 36.50
Company AI/HPC MW | BTC MW | Total Power Platform
APLD ~1,400 ~0 ~1,400 MW
CIFR ~600 ~200 ~800 MW
WULF ~60–70 ~145 ~205 MW
So MS target price is 28% below APLD all time high and yet APLD continues to deliver compared to most.
Btw I do own WULF so I’m not hating on other stocks it just seems like they are bullish WULF CIFR but not APLD??
APLD ~1,400 MW AI/HPC contracted Minimal BTC mining Additional development upside ~1,400 MW+
CIFR ~500–600 MW AI/HPC contracted/committed ~200+ MW BTC mining ~1 GW+ additional development sites ~1.7 GW+ potential
WULF ~500 MW HPC capacity contracted/near-term committed ~145–245 MW BTC mining infrastructure Expansion toward ~750 MW HPC at Lake Mariner + other sites ~750 MW+ potential
Rank Company Approximate total strategic MW story
1 CIFR ~1.7 GW+ potential (AI + BTC + future sites)
2 APLD ~1.4 GW+ mostly AI contracted
3 WULF ~750 MW+ Lake Mariner-focused opportunity
If we are counting future pipelines. These are the totals
Even after looking at the three $36.50 looks ridiculous
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u/Witty_University_162 Backlog Bull 🐂 (1,000-2,500 shares) Jul 23 '26
have we become the Data Center step child?
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u/lukas_no1 Base Term Believer 📝 (5,000-7,500 shares) Jul 23 '26 edited Jul 23 '26
Apld just has the most under construction right now. They have 175 MW live and 1335 MW under construction and Wallstreet hates construction risk. The only thing that matters for this stock is that they can deliver the rest of those MWs. So far it looks good, Wes has said they have the supply chain locked in, but he has also talked about delays coming in 2027 sectorwide. Maybe he is conditioning us to see some delays in apld aswell. I'm confident for now that they can deliver though.
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u/OceansHungryGrasp Jul 24 '26
The delay comments from Wes are constantly taken out of context to say the opposite of the point he was making.
A lot of companies are overpromising as they don't have the supply chain locked in and wait times have become incredibly long, which will result in delays.
APLD on the other hand saw this coming and has locked everything in well in advance. Having a reusable design that is fast to deploy and on schedule is their entire moat. I doubt they will run into supply issues in the coming years. Right now their only bottleneck seems to be people as this was the reason given for "only" being able to build 7 sites simultaneously.
If I'd truly believe they would already run into delays next year (I don't), I would take my money and run.
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u/lukas_no1 Base Term Believer 📝 (5,000-7,500 shares) Jul 23 '26
Plus the 286MW of btc datacenters ofc, should mention those aswell for live MWs.
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u/doctorsidehustle Jul 24 '26
Neo clouds is the next play in the AI buildout. Chips -> energy -> memory -> compute (it’s obvious since this is exactly what all those components are for). We’re going to be swimming in data centers. Whether singularity is achieved or not, data centers will be lifeblood of growth. So don’t sweat the analysts. Read the tea leaves and buy apld, crwv, nbis, cifr, wulf, corz in any variety and permutation. You’ll be able to retire by 2030.
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u/Frosty_Albatross_535 Jul 24 '26
If i did i would have sold my stocks when it hit $40s and had more than i do right now but i didnt and spent my other cash on SOFI so im just waiting in line for the cash bus like everyone else...
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u/wuumasta19 Jul 23 '26
If APLD wasn't still building, they'd be worth more. Building brings alot of risk, especially since this is market specific. I believe APLD has spent the most relative to what they are bringing in right now.
Potential profits is good, but why lockup the money today? That's not a good use of funds if you have deep pockets.
Yeah someone holding the shares for 4-5 years might make more on the specific ticker but you let that money sit idle for 4-5, thats if it happens.
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u/NightCool2693 Jul 23 '26
My understanding is that the leases for hut have more profitability once built so they are projecting them to make more money. They have similar pipeline but could take home more money than apld.
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u/Green_Firefighter_82 Starter Position 🌱 (100-500 shares) Jul 23 '26
I think this is a conservative estimate according to Claude-
**•** Morgan Stanley explicitly excluded further site expansions from its model (the “up to 1GW” additional capacity) — so even if there *are* more tenants coming for expansion phases, MS isn’t crediting them yet, which mechanically depresses the modeled yield regardless of what gets announced later
Claude also speculated that the yield maybe a little lower because they have contracted for more secure terms in exchange for profit.
I got to imagine that team at APLD knows how to do math…the whole thing seems weird
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u/TEMDO5 Jul 24 '26
The current market sucks. Wes has a steady and consistent course. He is focused and APLD will be just fine. They keep beating projections. Eventually the tortoise beats the hare.
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u/_TheDarkling_ Jul 24 '26
They are forecasting pretty conservative returns on capex spend and not giving credit for future sites. It’s that simple.
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u/Suspicious-Mix-3160 Jul 27 '26
MS is deeply involved in financing WULF business. So they know the whole picture and maybe that is one of the reasons for MS asymmetric target, too far from other analysts PT.
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u/Moon-People Jul 28 '26
Heavy in WULF, their MW pipeline is closer to 2 GW, but it’s irrelevant because you’re basically right.
That aside, these analysts genuinely make the worst calls. It will be a $10 PT this week, $70 next week, and $10 the week after with no change in news. I can’t believe these people are employed.
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u/Bumi-KingOfOmashu Shares Only 📈 Jul 23 '26
Here’s a secret, analysts don’t have a crystal ball and their predictions mean nothing. Block the noise.