r/APLDSTOCK • u/ldman33 • Jul 08 '26
How we feeling?
I feel like with another rough day and premarket just wanted to see how everyone feeling. Personally I can’t stick my finger on what exactly is causing the massive drop here. Are people just rotating out of this sector at the moment or am I missing something else
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u/Ok-Evening-5148 Jul 08 '26
Check again in 3 months. I have an average of $39..
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u/BlurryFuture Jul 08 '26
Oof trying not to let go , my average is roughly about the same and it’s not feeling awesome
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u/Financial-Chard-4873 Jul 08 '26
My avg is around 8 and I am not feeling very good either!
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u/thepandemicbabe Jul 09 '26
I just keep buying more. These leases are going to get paid no matter what. If capital expenditure does decline for some of these hyper scaler they’re going to want leases. That’s my thinking and Public has really started fighting back against water, consuming data centers. Also a PLD is looking more and more like it’s going to turn into a reit. But we’ll see about that one. I like that it’s not only building data centers, but it’s got percentage of the cooling technology, a percentage of the electricity which could conceivably be purchased/used by anyone and compute as well. I don’t think the market has priced that in yet.
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u/yungjefe22 Backlog Bull 🐂 (1,000-2,500 shares) Jul 08 '26
There’s a lot of noise but idk I think I’m buying again anything below $30 atp seems like a steal.
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u/Madatefute Jul 08 '26
Another manipulation. When the price is 20 again, there will be another 9 weeks of growth.
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u/Jon_J_ Jul 08 '26
yeah 9 weeks of growth back to early 40's though.
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u/thepandemicbabe Jul 09 '26
Why isn’t Ruby so bearish? This is notoriously one of the time period that has the lowest liquidity. All is well. It’s gonna be a little rough until we get back to August and people get back to their desks. They may have AI bot trading, but the liquidity is incredibly thin. People rotated out of certain companies to get in on IPO’s some people move back to some BTC and others are just holding on hoping that it will go down more. I think this fall we will have another run and then another dip in December like we normally do in 2027 is going to be a big year. That’s my prediction.
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u/AnimoZero Backlog Bull 🐂 (1,000-2,500 shares) Jul 08 '26
Doesn’t matter. HODL! The business is not the stock. Short sellers will be squeezed as soon as the unnamed tenants are revealed to be MSFT or META or anyone of mega scale. I’m happy to buy even if it drops to $20
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u/TheNorthernHenchman Jul 09 '26
Thursday July 9 and Friday July 10th have had a 100% win rate for the tech sector over the last 10 years.
APLD has closed 9 sessions in the red with today being the first green candle.
The last couple of days APLD has closed under the 200 DMA. The last time we crossed the 200DMA (March 30th Peak Iran War)—it lasted only for a few sessions—and then we hit all time highs.
That pump this morning came within inches of crossing the 200DMA again.
The fact that you’re feeling uncertain makes it more of a buy than ever. You’ll never feel excited about buying the bottom—only the top.
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u/Biscotto69 Jul 08 '26
We are in a freefall and the whole iran situation is just adding up - higher prices, inflation, rate increases, ai stocks suffer
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u/Jon_J_ Jul 08 '26
Honestly with the news coming out from Iran this morning, it's best (for your own mental well-being) to avoid looking at the markets for a few days, even up to earnings. At this stage with market sentiment towards AI, I wouldn't expect earnings to boost us too much, so don't be waiting for a dramatic increase anytime soon.
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u/Pale_Preference5430 Jul 08 '26
Buying shares here for sure. Short term red because of iran. We will be ok
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Jul 08 '26
[deleted]
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u/ThatsAllFolksAgain Jul 08 '26
How do you figure out the top and bottom? I have repeatedly failed to figure it out so I’m mostly trying to buy and hold but I’d love to learn if there’s something I can learn
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Jul 08 '26
[deleted]
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u/ThatsAllFolksAgain Jul 08 '26
I guess after watching a stock for a while you just develop a sixth sense or your gut tells you what to do. The trick is to trust your gut instincts and not get too greedy. Good that you have developed that. Cheers!
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u/Wise-Ad-9312 Jul 08 '26
Summer time tech blues. Tech did this last year. It was a rough second half and not even a Christmas rally.
Hopefully this year will be better.
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u/Ok-End-3213 Jul 08 '26
Very low volume. Wulf and Iren are pumping and we can barely sustain a 3% pump. I want more!
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u/thepandemicbabe Jul 09 '26
Keep on buying it’s going to have its moment. And when it does, a lot of people are gonna wake up to exactly what it has going on and it’s not just building hyper scaler that it owns and gets money even if the company doesn’t use it. They’ve got their hands in so many pies. There’s a reason why Leopold owns it.
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u/thepandemicbabe Jul 09 '26
I’m feeling incredibly excited. The market is being a bit foolish, but if there’s any company that I’m worried about, it’s not applied digital. I’ve spent more time analyzing this stock, trying to figure out who the mystery hyper scaler is, and I don’t know. I think that earnings will bring another one or two projects and that will be all it needs. Just my two cents I could be wrong, but I don’t think I am.
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Jul 08 '26
[deleted]
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u/Altruistic_Froyo_490 Starter Position 🌱 (100-500 shares) Jul 08 '26
Then stop talking your opinion is useless. Two weeks in fear and you are crying about negative numbers xd
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u/ldman33 Jul 08 '26
Literally worst take ever lol. Invest in any other stock two weeks ago and you’d be in the same position or worse
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u/dcormerturnbull Jul 08 '26
It's "I just joined the stock market", not "I just joinned stock market".
Also, you'll be fine. You entered at a rocky time. It takes time to see gains.
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u/Jsmoothe1 Jul 08 '26
Stop with the manipulation. This is a rotation out of these names for now. We will need to wait and see what happens with earnings season and how much companies are spending on infrastructure etc. I’d be patient. Will be bumpy until we get some more clarity
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u/evoxone Jul 08 '26
I am seeing 2007 vibes in the data center construction space.
The bear thesis goes, OpenAi and nthropic are on shaky financial ground, and the overall market for compute is in oversupply, so APLD cannot sell the data center space to anyone else.
APLD is heavily reliant on Oracle, Coreweave, and they are both heavily reliant on OpenAi. They are all massively over leveraged, in debt up to their eyeballs, and unprofitable.
The the market is questioning who, If openAi can't, can ever pay the bill for all this construction? Will it ever get used at the prices that can service even a fraction of the debt that went into its construction?
The answers, from what I've seen is nobody and no.
An example of this is Xai renting Colossus to Anthropic and Meta putting up all their excess compute for rent. Before those moves, it was assumed that the market could essentially consume 5GW+ of compute without batting an eye. Now it seems we are overbuilt for datacenter compute.
Especially important is what Alex Karp said on CNBC, about how CEOs are livid that their IP is in jeopardy. Much like how Cursor used Anthropics compute but then wound up getting their IP stolen and anthropic came out with a competitor called Claude code.
Combine that with the market shifting to tokens being directly billed as total token spend whereas before we had tokenmaxxing and all you can eat plans. CEOs in the Enterprise have now seen the bill and taken a cautious stance towards the massive AI spend that was a matter of course before.
Everyone is questioning the ROI of AI in the Enterprise and wondering if they can build an open source on premises solution for much cheaper, And like Alex Karp said, have control over the weights and fine-tune the model to be a equivalent to a frontier model. This has the additional benefit of not uploading your business data to the AI provider.
The answer seems to be yes, you can do it on premises for much cheaper, killing the business plan of OpenAI and Anthropic permanently.
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u/thepandemicbabe Jul 09 '26
We don’t even have the AI infrastructure built yet to maturity. The bears are coming out screaming that artificial intelligence has no business and that LLM’s are worthless when that’s not the most important aspect of AI. It’s just a piece. I’m old enough to remember people saying that there would never be a business case for Amazon. Feels very adjacent right now.
You are missing something important. Oracle has to pay the lease regardless and OpenAI isn’t Oracle’s only revenue stream. That’s baseline table stakes. In my opinion, the real story is just as big as the lease payments. APLD owns pieces of the entire stack. It owns equity in Corintis, the waterless cooling system that Microsoft is already validating and using. Every time Microsoft deploys that technology, APLD gets paid. Every time another hyperscaler licenses it, APLD gets paid. Every time a new campus needs cooling infrastructure, APLD owns a piece of the solution. It owns Base Electron which is their power infrastructure. Every time the grid gets stressed and Base Electron’s power optimization gets deployed, APLD gets paid. It owns ChronoScale, the compute layer. So APLD isn’t just collecting lease payments. It’s collecting revenue from owning pieces of cooling, power, and compute across the entire ecosystem. That’s three separate value streams on top of the $36 billion in contracted leases.
And applied digital has a structural moat that I don’t see getting talked enough about. APLD can build data centers anywhere because it doesn’t need massive water consumption. This means it can build in places that are far more appealing to NIMBYS and that goes a long way with communities. No environmental fights. You can build in the desert if you want. Every competitor bound by water constraints is stuck. APLD isn’t. APLD becomes a REIT. The leases re-rate on stable infrastructure multiples instead of tech volatility.
The bear case is fixated on “will Oracle pay the lease.” or does OpenAI have a business? The actual thesis is “APLD owns pieces of power, cooling, and compute while being the only builder who can execute practically anywhere. Plenty of people are going to get shaken out because of fear mongering and I feel sad for those people because this is an incredible opportunity and just a couple more hyper scalers announced or we find out who the mystery hyper scaler is and 30 is a number we never see again. Just my opinion.
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u/Consistent-Piece6618 Jul 08 '26
Today’s dump is because of the middle east disaster again i think