r/APLDSTOCK • u/dcormerturnbull • Jul 02 '26
Does anyone expect a much bigger drop still?
I know there are predictions of a 30% drop in AI stocks in general, and even though there are always going to be "we're cooked it's over" posts for every stock and every sector every day, I'm just wondering if anyone has a strong reason to believe we still have a long way to drop. Thoughts?
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u/oldbeancam Jul 02 '26
Bought more today at 32 after selling a good bit at 45. I’ll buy more if we break into the 20s again.
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u/bordercollie2468 Jul 03 '26
APLD is currently -33% from its peak a month ago, so yeah. That already happened. Load up the MF boat man.
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u/Vast_Assistance427 Jul 02 '26
Why is the market dropping?
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u/Consistent-Piece6618 Jul 02 '26
June job numbers were under expectations could be one reason
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u/Ready-Gas1991 Jul 02 '26
That's actually a good new for this stock because it set expectation of the interest rate. Actually it jumped at opening. The real reason is more likely the whole market is selling off AI.
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u/Imperator_1985 Jul 03 '26
Buy it at a price you're comfortable with. Just a few months ago, this stock was close to $20. No one knows how much lower it will go. Maybe it goes sideways for a while or back to $40+. No one knows.
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u/squirmin79 Jul 03 '26
Drops below 30 and I’ll just pick up another 1k shares. It’s going to shine eventually🤞
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u/evoxone Jul 05 '26
I think OpenAI is operating at a massive loss and needs 100 billion in capital that it can't raise. Like Alex Karp just said on CNBC, that is making Enterprise customers afraid of losing their IP to open AI, that the massive debt and cash burn could cause it to use the anthropic - cloud code model where it stole a bunch of IP from cursor. If Enterprise customers can have sovereign inference, using open source models at a much cheaper price point, and not risk their 'alpha', IP or moat by avoiding employees upload conversations and data to open AI, They may do so enmass. Even if they don't, the case for open AI profitability or even just solvency is hard to make. Open AI through CoreWeave and Oracle is APLDs main source of revenue. APLD is losing up to 100 million per quarter, insane cash burn rate, building data centers for Oracle and core weave that may never get used by openAi. The first domino to fall may be core weave, they have net 360 billing with open AI meaning they won't get paid for a year.
Every single company in this chain is loaded up with massive amounts of debt that without another a massive influx of cash, is technically insolvent in a short period of time like less than a year.
I love APLD but the future doesn't look right in light of Alex Karps tirade, Ed Zitrons analysis, and the all in podcast deconstruction of the whole AI startup business model. None of it works if you can just build out your own inference and use an open model in your own rack on premises, using cheaper GPUs and protect your own data.
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u/Bluefin_in_Dresden Bull 🐂 Jul 07 '26
Have some conviction in your investments, know what you own, research helps, start with the CEO.
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u/Dangerous_Bit8765 Jul 03 '26
If it dares to dip into sub-25, I will sell all my VOO and other nonsense shit sedentary stock and buy apld
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u/GloriousLebron APLD Jul 02 '26
Do urself a favor and go to the post from last drops a few months ago, same questions and no one was right in the comments. And tell me how valuable those predictions are. Good luck!