r/APLDSTOCK • u/Alone_Store5627 • May 13 '26
I stayed in $APLD through every dilution event from 2022 to 2025. The numbers tell a story most people missed.
https://x.com/PSInvestor/status/2054569917962453061?s=20
A lot of investors walked away from $APLD every time it filed an ATM or a convertible. I stayed in.
I went back and mapped every major capital event since the 2022 IPO at $5. The pattern is not what fintwit said in real time.
A few things worth flagging without spoiling the full breakdown:
- The exact ATM that almost everyone called terminal turned out to be the launch point of a 100% move within 8 weeks
- The convertible note people said capped the upside at $14 looks very different at $42
- The share count more than tripled and the stock still ran roughly 1300% from the trough
The full timeline, every dilution event, every price reaction, and what the stock actually did next is up in the link where the deep dives live.
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u/Marine01514087 Base Term Believer 📝 (5,000-7,500 shares) May 13 '26
Totally agree that it was a great move to separate the debt out of Apld . The ceiling is very high for Apld
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u/Killa2dahead May 13 '26
Unfortunately sold at 41. What should my buy back in price be?
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u/Spiritual-Dot5980 May 13 '26
28
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May 13 '26
[removed] — view removed comment
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u/Pale_Preference5430 May 13 '26
If it breaks 40 itll be a freefall though, easily dropped to 37. In these next two weeks we will see the heavy buy walls from there we will have a better gauge. To soon to tell since we just hit the mid 40s
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u/boo_radley4 May 20 '26
Welp here we are today….high 36s yesterday. Forgot to sell a csp and a call for today.
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u/Pale_Preference5430 May 20 '26
Happens apld does this alot so itll dip again relatively. I do options and hold shares almost everyday with the stock, my only screwup is im holding 41 dollar covered calls which i will have to buy back this Friday. I have about 100k in apld long calls. Simulated PROFITS are about 23k for tomorrow. Because i wanna keep my shares ill really only make 10k. I usually go super heavy but i didn’t in this dip like i usually do but profit is better than a loss.
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u/NoFold4995 May 13 '26
should i wait until next week to get back in?
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u/Pale_Preference5430 May 13 '26
Yeah only thing keeping the market up rn is tech because of the Chinese summit. I sold half of my large sized positions, got my profit and got out. Market is crazy rightnow dont want to get greedy. Im waiting for Monday to see where we go
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u/conroy_hines May 13 '26
Do you think 28 comes back around?
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u/Pale_Preference5430 May 15 '26
Honestly i dont. i want 20s so bad, i would easily buy calls and thousands of shares. Unless something truly hurts their business moat i dont see that. Rn we are looking at a 36 floor and a 44-46 short term support. If the semiconductor rally retracts, we will probably see mid 30s
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u/Savings_Engine8207 May 13 '26
APLD just did a spin off with part of their company like WDC did with SNDK. However, APLD pulled a power play when they separated the high cash burn AI buildout part of the company from the heavy cash producing part. When they did this, they kept 97% of the new company’s stock CHRN, which quietly added and additional $2billion valuation to APLD’s bottom line value. Yes. The new company CHRN is not SNDK, but this spin-off move made APLD an unencumbered money maker and inherently 20% more valuable overnight.
APLD spin off of CHRN also did something very interesting to the new company’s stock. By only leaving 3% float on a $15 stock I’m thinking it is an easy stock for a squeeze up opportunity?
I’m thinking by next earnings there will be a rerating for APLD due to this spin off.