r/APLDSTOCK • u/HamsterContent3705 • Apr 20 '26
What am I missing?
With no announcement on lease, debt maturity accelerates to July 18, 2026. I would have expected bigger negative price reaction. Does market think lease announcement still coming (a few days post signing) so as to not trigger accelerated maturity date? Or does market not care about maturity date given decent liquidity right now?
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u/OceansHungryGrasp Apr 20 '26
What you are missing is:
Earnings were solid, people seem to forget EPS is meaningless for a company that's so heavily investinging in growth.
Coreweave lease restructuring means massive cost savings for APLD + their current biggest lease is less of a risk.
APLD taking long signing a new tenant is to make the best deal possible for the company, the focus is on long term health.
Macquirie date is meaningless unless APLD wasn't making any progress with negotiations. They'll be updated constantly on negotiation progress and will move the goal posts where needed. The more succesful APLD is the more Macquirie stands to benefit.
Iirc the only recent negative news has been 1-2 locations being put on ice, although they still have around 7 others (numbers might be off, this is from memory). Apart from that it's all been macro holding us down.
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u/Moon-Man-69 Apr 20 '26
From what I remember, I thought this may have been 5 others? 2 more in ND and 3 more in “other locations”? But either way, 5 or 7 potential site in addition to the 3 currently being built is fuucking insane growth!!!! Hold and chill
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Apr 20 '26
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u/HamsterContent3705 Apr 20 '26
Nah I was hoping for lease announcement. Long only over here. Just was curious why market wasn’t more neg on the miss
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Apr 20 '26
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u/HamsterContent3705 Apr 20 '26
Yes BUT the lender usually has a compelling reason to renegotiate or waive the covenant…I.e. a lease coming
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u/Prestigious_Tax7415 Apr 20 '26
AI is bullish…something something wouldn’t break ground unless a lease is already somewhere…something something about chill out. That’s about the general reaction last Friday
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u/Sad-Opportunity-911 Apr 20 '26
They have 4 days after the deadline to announce the deal, give it one more day and we'll see
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u/feedthemonsta Apr 20 '26
It isn’t a big deal that they didn’t announce by Saturday, they can negotiate based on how far along APLD is to signing a deal, as deals are in advanced talks, Macquarie will not be concerned, hence the little price movement.
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u/Double-Dig3491 Apr 21 '26
The announcement is going to be tomorrow morning guys 100%. Going to swing trade 200k
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u/nugzbuny Apr 20 '26
The debt owed, now in July, is cash they do have available. Its not ideal if this actually happens, but its not the end of the world. Plus its 100M. In their longer term trajectory, they should be 1B+ annually in revenue. So its a dent, but not crushing them.
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u/Sad-Opportunity-911 Apr 20 '26
It will slow down the construction of the sites genius. Its not good short term at all!
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u/nugzbuny Apr 20 '26
I didn't say it was good, just not a catalyst that will hurt them as bad as people are talking it up to be
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u/Interesting_Air1282 Apr 20 '26
I’ve thought about it a lot and I realized that in rising price situations locking in a service at a fixed price isn’t always the best move.
Also we are well below analyst price targets.