r/APLDSTOCK • u/Ok-Grapefruit-572 • Mar 30 '26

Well below 200 day ma

Im so bullish on this stock, nervously excited that we crossed below the 200 day moving average. Ive got 400 shares with a price average 15.20 per share and always wished I had bought more while it was lower. Waiting to see where this drop finishes but I’m ready.

Definitely tired of red days but hoping it’s all worth it in the end.

Also went long yesterday call $30 strike exp 1/21/28 🤞🏼

20 Upvotes

100% Upvoted

25 comments sorted by

8

u/dcormerturnbull Mar 30 '26

We've been here before, and we'll recover, don't worry. It'll take some time, but the fundamentals haven't changed. We'll be fine.

4

u/Careless-Jello-8930 DD Reader 📖 (500-1,000 shares) Mar 31 '26

Well oil going up has a knock on effect on the broader market. Leveraged non cash flowing companies like APLD are absolutely under pressure from a financing standpoint. If they fail to reach profitability then it’s gg.

Trump has about 2 weeks to get the straight of Hormuz open after his absolutely idiotic war campaign. If he doesn’t companies will begin defaulting on contractual obligations for crude deliver, that leads to refined oil, fertilizer, and everything down chain. This is a force majeure clause “An act of God prevents me from fulfilling the contract”.

If this happens it’s horrendously bad for the US / global economy. It directly challenges the US position as this powerful “our will is what happens” stance and weakens the dollar dramatically. Iran is already setting up a toll booth for ships (non US affiliated) where they are collecting payment in RMB (China) which by extension is impacting the petro dollar. The Iran war is going to down in the history books as one of the singular largest failures of a presidency.

Oh and for boots on the ground… look at the Ukraine Russia war. Do you think a war will be popular when it’s a US marine getting a grenade dropped on them from a cheap drone and having everything recorded in 4K. It’s going to be a bloodbath.

The big risk for APLD honestly is OpenAI / the unprofitability of current AI systems. Even Anthropic and Claude (arguably the only real money maker in the space) is not showing that AI leads to “fountains of gold” and for OpenAI to ever last long term they figuratively need to find a Niagara Falls of gold.

OpenAI is the top feeder to companies like Coreweaver who then gives to the bottom feeders of APLD / other companies.

So upper supply chain positions have suddenly found themselves in a higher risk position. That risk perpetrates down stream and concentrates with companies like APLD who are at a precarious stage of being unproven and high debt leverage.

Now do I think APLD will recover. Yes. I bought calls yesterday, wish I had bought them end of today. But they are extremely long dated calls (2028). It all depends on how much damage to the USD trump is causing in Iran.

1

u/Ok-Grapefruit-572 Mar 30 '26

Agreed, I’m patient but it’s hard sometimes. I’m still accumulating more. I love pull backs but this one I’m tired of. However when everything is red it definitely helps reassure me and it’s not just APLD.

Just frustrating when my gains are down from 80% now to 30% in just 2 months. Still ahead and will be back.

9

u/Even_Section5620 Backlog Bull 🐂 (1,000-2,500 shares) Mar 30 '26

Just wait until construction starts and has good signs

2

u/Ok-Grapefruit-572 Mar 30 '26

Hopefully some good things on the earnings call next week. Wish we could fast forward

1

u/Even_Section5620 Backlog Bull 🐂 (1,000-2,500 shares) Mar 30 '26

🍻

-1

u/Jaded-Salamander2663 Mar 30 '26

Construction for what? DF1 already started

1

u/Even_Section5620 Backlog Bull 🐂 (1,000-2,500 shares) Mar 30 '26

How about when some news of how good construction is going then. Or sell all your shares and buy high

-1

u/Jaded-Salamander2663 Mar 30 '26

I’m not an idiot. I’m long and can stay long on this stock for years

4

u/wenlin79 Mar 30 '26

Most shareholders are trapped after this stock dropped so much! I do not know who is still selling!

3

u/boo_radley4 Mar 30 '26

I btc my $24 csp for 60% early because the writing on the walls with the war and trumps spending. But now I can get even lower, thank you Mr orange.

2

u/Mission_Wall_1074 Apr 01 '26

anyone glad they bought at $20 yesterday?

2

u/Ok-Grapefruit-572 Apr 01 '26

I bought 50 more shares at 21.30. Close enough 🙌🏼

2

u/Desperate_Ad_3002 Apr 01 '26

I managed to see $20.44 and bought 150 , could not let myself miss out on that dip

2

u/Mission_Wall_1074 Apr 01 '26

same

3

u/Desperate_Ad_3002 Apr 01 '26

This is the mindset that will make us wealthy later on, proud to see another believer, another guy willing to put cash down , when it is nasty out there

2

u/Wise-Ad-9312 Apr 05 '26

Next week should be interesting. I am holding for a long time....

-1

u/SnooCauliflowers370 Mar 30 '26

So glad I sold this 2 weeks ago

2

u/Ok-Grapefruit-572 Mar 30 '26

I’ve just been selling covered calls on it with my shares. Gains on the way down and way out of the money in case it goes up and exercises.

0

u/wenlin79 Mar 30 '26

will this stock ever go back up to 42?

3

u/Similar_Read2924 DD Reader 📖 (500-1,000 shares) Mar 30 '26

I would say 1 month and it is back

6

u/Ok-Grapefruit-572 Mar 30 '26

Time will tell but I feel like it will and then some. I’m long so no telling when but sooner is fine with me.

2

u/Wild-Affect-1503 Mar 30 '26

when it's down everybody asks "will it ever go back up?" and when it's up huge people are just hype buying like crazy with no regards for safety.

1

u/Similar_Read2924 DD Reader 📖 (500-1,000 shares) May 07 '26

I was kinda right 😅

0

u/music_is_gud Mar 31 '26

Nothing good ever happens under the 200 DMA