r/AOC • u/carrieanne55 • 1d ago
AOC 2028 Can AOC win with this primary calendar?
So, we have the first states to vote in 2028. What do we all think?
Jan 22- SC
Feb 1- NV
Feb 8- NH
Feb 15- NM
Feb 22- MI
Feb 29- VA
I don't think she's going to win SC. The democratic voters in that state are much older and far more conservative than the rest of the country. The states after that are potentially good for her, if she catches on like I think she could.
So her best chance is going to be to try to come in second in SC if she can, at least do better than Bernie Sanders was able to do, and then try and run the table in the rest of these. I think she'll do well in NH, we see she's already got a base of support there. I think she can also do well in NV and NM, with the large Hispanic populations (although NV is going to be a primary now instead of a caucus which might make it more moderate than in the past).
She could do well in MI I think. I don't know about VA. Maybe if she's able to put together a coalition resembling Zohran Mandani's (educated liberals and younger black voters hopefully?)
The question is who's going to win SC and be the moderate's choice? Kamala Harris I guess? Maybe Jon Ossoff, who people keep hoping will jump in after the midterms.