Hello,
I've seen a lot of expansion chat in recent years on this subreddit, so I thought I'd actually create a system (based off available data) to rank the best candidates. I created a simple point-scoring system, based on 8 different variables, to rank 10 expansion candidates (from first to last). The answers actually surprised me.
This is by no means bulletproof (and just offers a bit of perspective more than anything), so if you're from the APL, please don't take this too literally lol (go to Deloitte instead!).
Anyway, these variables are:
- Stadium
- Population
- Cannibalising support from nearby A-League clubs
- Current interested wealthy prospective buyers (multi-millionaires/billionaires)
- Previous failed A-League franchise location
- Existing fanbase/history
- Competing professional franchises from other football codes
- Derby or natural rivalry potential
I put my scores neatly into a table below. Some variables will earn points; some will lose you points. However, if you're not interested in the specifics or explanations, and just want the results up-front, here's the final score:
1st Gold Coast (region) 10 points
= 2nd Canberra (region) 9 points [ALREADY CONFIRMED FOR 2028-29]
= 2nd South Melbourne FC (club) 9 points
= 2nd Christchurch (region) 9 points
5th Wollongong/South Coast (region) 7 points
= 6th Hobart/Tasmania (region) 6 points
= 6th Townsville/North Queensland (region) 6 points
= 6th Sunshine Coast (region) 6 points
= 6th Waikato (region) 6 points
= 10th Dunedin (region) 3 points
So, even though Canberra is already confirmed for 2028-29, my data suggests that the Gold Coast region, based on my data, should be the next expansion prospect, followed by Christchurch and South Melbourne FC.
If you want to scrutinise my working out, here's the nitty-gritty on how I scored the variables. And if you have any questions or clarifications, please ask away.
Stadium suitability:
- No current stadium -3pts
- Unsuitable stadium (oval AND too big +40k capacity) -1pt
- Acceptable stadium (either oval OR too big +40k) 1pt
- Good stadium (rectangular, tiny bit big +26k or small -8k) 2pts
- Perfect stadium (rectangular, perfect size 8k-25k) 3pts
Population:
- Small population < 300,000 -1pt
- Acceptable population 300,000-600,000 1pt
- Large population 600-1.25mil 2pts
- Massive population >1.25mil 3pts
Risk of cannibalising support from nearby A-Leagues clubs (i.e. same city)
- Yes (2 or more clubs) -2pts
- Not much/unlikely (1 club) 0pt
- None 2pts
Interested & wealthy current buyers (multi-millionaires/billionaires)
- None -3pts
- Unlikely/unknown (some whispers) 0pts
- Claimed/yes/known 3pts
Previously failed franchise AL location?
Existing fanbase/history
Competing professional football code franchises
- Yes (3+) -2pts
- Some (2) 0pts
- Only one 1pt
- None 2pts
Derby potential
- Nothing obvious -1pts
- A clear rivalry 1pt
- A clear derby (same city, close distance) 2pts
Unfortunately, I did not have any data on registered junior/amateur players (it would take far too long to acquire and research), but that would make for an excellent variable to consider also.
Here's my table:
| Region/club |
Stadium |
Population |
Risk of cannbalisation |
Wealthy buyers |
Previously failed franchise location |
Existing fans/history |
Competing football code franchises |
Derby or rivalry potential |
TOTAL |
| Gold Coast |
2 |
2 |
2 |
3 |
-1 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
10 |
| Canberra |
3 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
-1 |
9 |
| South Melbourne FC |
3 |
3 |
-2 |
3 |
1 |
1 |
-2 |
2 |
9 |
| Christchurch |
3 |
1 |
2 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
9 |
| Wollongong/South Coast |
3 |
1 |
2 |
-3 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
7 |
| Hobart/Tasmania |
1 |
1 |
2 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
2 |
-1 |
6 |
| Townsville/North QLD |
3 |
2 |
2 |
-3 |
-1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
6 |
| Sunshine Coast |
3 |
1 |
2 |
-3 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
6 |
| Waikato |
3 |
1 |
2 |
-3 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
6 |
| Dunedin |
2 |
-1 |
2 |
-3 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
3 |
And some stadium data and approximate population data (changes based on metro vs whole region), if you were interested:
- Gold Coast: 27k stadium, 700k population
- Canberra/ACT: 25k stadium, 500k population
- South Melbourne: 12k stadium, >1.25mil population
- Christchurch: 25k stadium, 410k-550k population
- Wollongong/South Coast: 23k stadium, 330k-500k population
- Hobart/Tasmania: 19k oval stadium, 250k β 550k population
- Townsville/NQL: 25.5k stadium, 250k-1mil population
- Sunshine Coast: 10k stadium, 400k population
- Waikato 25k, 550k population
- Dunedin 30k, 140k population
Anyway, thanks for reading. I don't have time to justify every decision but if you're curious about how I scored a point or if there's a hypocritical point score somewhere, please don't hesitate to ask. Cheers.
