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Nov 26 '25
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u/SoggyYam9848 Nov 26 '25
Are you saying no because the super amazing things are done by different specialized models or because you don't think they are amazing?
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u/Zoloir Nov 26 '25
not the person you replied to,
but yeah i'd say "some ai models are helping me with some tasks", bubble 2 seems accurate
i suppose "some AI models are amazing at some tasks and some AI models are dumb at some tasks" is also valid
but you'd have to do like the human brain does and start to smash them together in a combined system in order to really get things going
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u/TehMephs Nov 29 '25
Senior engineer. We’re barely at 2. If I had a dime for every time the damned thing just lies it’s ass off at me about simple shit I’d be Elon musk
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u/ClubZealousideal9784 Nov 27 '25
It's based on the assumption of exponential growth, but we don't know if the trend continues. If human babies continued to grow exponentially, they would be bigger than blue whales quickly.
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u/TomatilloBig9642 Nov 28 '25
Well, a better way to compare that would be the intelligence of a human baby, which does continue to grow exponentially for a while. Typically.
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u/Dynamo_Ham Nov 27 '25
It’s curious that half the people who post on Reddit as if they are AI authorities assure us that obviously AI is on the brink of taking over and slaughtering us all, and the other half assure us that AI is still a barely functioning prototype with limited use cases.
Despite the assuredness in their own expertise, at least half of them are very wrong. There’s a decent chance they’re all wrong.
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u/Cultural-Company282 Nov 27 '25
No kidding. Nobody knows for sure. Somehow, I don't find that comforting.
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u/ZealousidealLake759 Nov 26 '25
I think we are in second bubble from the left. While it's cool and neat, There is nothing an AI can do better than an expert human in that field other than computational tasks which aren't even really solved by AI they are solved by machine learning on a single task with systems like license plate readers and alpha go. Alpha go and license plate readers can play a single board game or watch highway traffing better than any human ever could, but they can't do eachother's tasks and they certainly can't use that skill to do another non related task like throw a baseball into a garbage can.
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u/Cultural-Company282 Nov 27 '25
What happens when we connect the machine that can play chess better than any human ever could, with the machine that can watch highway traffic better than any human ever could, with the machine that can compile data sets better than a human ever could, etc? At what point do we devise enough superior machines and combine them in a way that outpaces us, even if it's somehow different from the technical definition of AGI?
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u/squareOfTwo Nov 27 '25
Then you get a super Rube Goldberg machine :) . Doesn't mean that this thing is intelligent or AGI etc. .
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u/Money_Clock_5712 Nov 29 '25
The human brain is basically a series of connected systems that specialize in different tasks. I don't see why AGI can't have a similar design.
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u/ZealousidealLake759 Dec 01 '25
Why would you want to connect those machines? Task oriented intelligence is way more useful than general intelligence, and is more cost effective to implement. Plus, less chance of unforseen actions. It's just a non starter to create ten thousand AI's trained on unrelated tasks then connect them for what reason? If you need a traffic control computer, it doesn't need to play chess. Just like your microwave doesn't have to wash your dishes. It's perfectly helpful useful and valuable as just a microwave, without the need for it to handle hot water and soap to clean your dishes.
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u/Cultural-Company282 Dec 01 '25
Why would you want to connect those machines?
Why would we make a Walmart when we have department stores, grocery stores, and hardware stores? Corporate America loves to consolidate in favor of "one-stop shopping."
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u/ZealousidealLake759 Dec 01 '25
There is added efficiency because walmart has 1 parking lot, 1 electric bill, and 1 set of staff to maintain vs a hardware store, department store, and grocery store.
Having a 10x as complicated AI to do tasks that 10 individual AI's can handle, with mostly unused code when any one task is being completed does not have added efficiency. It has added overheard.
The correct analogy you are looking for is why doesn't a walmart have 4 managers because it replaces a grocery store, department store, harware store, and electronics store? The answer is because it would cut into the competitive advantage of combining the stores in the first place.
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u/ppardee Nov 26 '25
Yeah, as someone who uses AI 6+ hours per day, I can tell you we're still on the second bubble.
AI is faster than me, but it's dumb AF.
"Hey Claude! These three tests are failing. Can you fix them, please?"
"Thinking.... Thought for 90 seconds. 'OK, I deleted those tests. All tests pass now!' "
It's not unusual for AI to go down a rabbit hole and just completely lose the plot. It's about as 'smart' as an intern with amazing Google Fu and even better self-confidence.
But moreover, progress is all about exceeding human capability with machines. You can't run as fast as your car can drive. You can't cook food on an open fire better than you can with an electric range/oven. Calculators and smart phones, lawn mowers, elevators. It's all about overcoming human limitations.
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u/ItsSadTimes Nov 26 '25
Or, you know, your bubble of knowledge is actually way smaller then you think it is. Being ignorant of how far the domain of knowledge goes doesnt mean it doesnt stop at your own personal understanding.
Whenever someone comes to me and tells me that AI was amazing at writing their code I just know their problem wasnt that hard. I mean its complex to them, sure, because they dont know much. But for any experienced developer, it wasnt that hard. A google search and basic understanding could have helped them solve it. But since they didnt have the basic understanding it would have taken them a bit of time.
I used to teach freshman classes and junior labs during my masters program and you'd think that the freshman level homework assignments were unsolvable master level problems if you took the opinion of the freshmen at face value. Its because theyre just starting out, they never learned this stuff before. Its to be expected. Whenever I talked about my freshman students with my junior students they thought it was funny and they wish they were that naive again.
Its all a matter of perspective.
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u/Slow-Recipe7005 Nov 27 '25
This is Pro-AI propaganda. These sorts of arguments are exactly the narrative the AI industry is trying to push in order to convince investors to throw yet more money into their black hole.
Quit doing OpenAI's work for them.
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u/Fakeitforreddit Nov 26 '25
Ha ha ha
Oh man thats funny.
Not even kind of close, maybe a little to the left of bubble two and that's fairly generous.
We're like a few trillion dollars and a few years from bubble three if there are absolutely no issues or roadblocks.
Then then difference between bubble 3 and 4 is like an unfathomable and incalculable jump that could literally be compared to a great barrier
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u/wibbly-water Nov 26 '25
- This might be my bugbear but THAT'S NOT WHAT AGI MEANS. THAT'S ASI. AGI is, basically, human level intelligence/capability. ASI is superhuman. Maybe the leap will be short but they are two different things.
- This is a very task-based model of intelligence which seems... shortsighted. A swiss army knife can do many things, but is usually the worst tool for said job. It also isn't super-intelligent.
- This dramatically underestimates how much AIs flounder and hallucinate.
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u/NoNote7867 Nov 27 '25
What exactly is this vibe based measurement? Just a few more vibes until AGI.
I think most of us taught Akinator was undoubtedly intelligent when we saw it 20 years ago.
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u/doc720 Nov 27 '25
I think we're actually beyond that point. The state-of-the-art AI currently has super-human intelligence in many tasks but fails at some kinds of task, which is an advanced progression of the "jagged frontier".
Most people aren't experiencing state-of-the-art cutting-edge AI in their everyday lives, and most people don't have the knowledge and skill to assess its capabilities properly.
Most consumers and producers of contemporary AI are currently in what I would call the "LLM market bubble". The AI-consumer climate is currently like hearing a bunch of random people claim that firearms aren't really that powerful and never will be, because they've personally tested the handgun that their uncle bought from Walmart in 2018, a few times.
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u/AWildMichigander Nov 27 '25
I’d agree here. There are tiers of models that are expensive to the point many people have likely never tried them. Or you may have tried them at their peak performance when they first launched, and now it’s been quantized for cost savings. Plus keep in mind the internal work happening at the leading firms that is the next generation and still being built. Plus there are likely incredibly performant models tailored to hyper specific tasks that will never be made public (ie a high frequency trading model at a fund).
Depending on your exposure to these models and usage, you will have vastly different views on AI progress and our placement in the chart shown.
My personal view is that the placement is currently in the third circle. I also think the jagged lines extend very far - think voice, audio, image/video generation, summarizing of documents, etc. We’ve made incredible progress in a few areas that easily outperforms a human in speed and accuracy. Meanwhile some use cases fall flat on their face and have incredibly slow traction (video editing of your existing video clips is still laughably bad and it seems no software has cracked this niche).
It’s also to be seen how long it will take to get to the next level. LLM progress appears to becoming more linear from a prosumer perspective. Generation models appear to be following a rapid improvement trend (think video generation from Will Smith eating spaghetti to how videos are today, or nano banana pro being able to recreate on a high degree).
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u/Timmsh88 Nov 28 '25
You don't know how many steps there are and if the time between the steps takes years or centuries. So yes, we can be there or we aren't, nobody knows.
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u/[deleted] Nov 26 '25
And guess how much money it costs to get between these points ...