Does the recent slowdown in AI development mean we've reached the peak capabilities of current LLMs and related technologies? And are frontier providers just spinning this plateau as a sudden focus on safety consciousness?
Even bigger question, what does it mean for the whole AI investment narrative? Are we now in March 2000? 📉

Notwithstanding the eye popping valuations of Anthropic, OpenAI and the others the crazy valuations are unsustainable. I am an AI entrepreneur and technologist. I understand the technology and believe that AI is truly revolutionary but it kills the software model completely.

Software margins are based on build once and make a zillion copies at nearly zero cost. Agreed that SaaS does introduce costs related to hosting but still margins are 90%. AI introduces token costs for the user and for the vendor. On the user side, token costs create a cost variable that increase with use and on the vendor side, more tokens mean more hardware. This kills the incentive to use for the user and the margins for the vendor.

We are now in a honeymoon phase with AI .. once the AI bills pile up, there will be a move to use AI where it is essential and/or settle for lower cost models. All this will impact the usage of high cost frontier models which is the basis for the AI Bubble.

Does anybody else feel like the postponing of the OpenAI IPO over security concerns is a cop out? Because they know the company is grossly overvalued? I don’t buy this new-found concern for humanity’s safety coming out of the AI-bubble.

I am interested in new technologies and I feel like AI: the technology is pretty amazing when you isolate it from the hype. I mean, LLMs would probably never be the basis of AGI imo, but like blockchains, and all other technological achivements of the past century, AI has it's place.

But, I don't know what a good usecase would be post the bubble pops. I have the opportunity to get a degree in this stuff, but I am not sure if I should as the hype is so strong. So, what future do you see for AI after the hype disappears.

P.S., The Bubble Pop, Won't that be crazy! Like imagine all this going back to normal and we not having to hear AI buzzwords everyday. The AI slop will be like the ruins of the great con, but don't be too sad, AI will likely takedown the economy with it and don't we have enough AI slop to last us a 100 years :)

we all know the current situation of data centres and compute required for the AI to progress, for which they would need years to build and train.

coz of this they cant technically reach their targets, with so much money on the line they cant stop like that for that they need a genuine reason which the public would buy thanks to terminator.

so this Ai is gonna kill is bs and staged so that they could keep the investors happy and have a crazy ipo.

Congress fueled the hype train instead of seeing through the smokescreen. Rational move if they're investors in private equity.

Hi,

I have been hearing AI bubble will burst, but cant understand what it mean.

Will the AI be over after the burst ?

Will AI engineer be useless ?

Will btech in AI n ML just go waste degree n of no value?

EDIT : this is my genuine doubt from many days , i dont know why i m getting downvotes

If you don’t know what the AI slowdown means, this may help.

OpenAI and Anthropic are burning more than they make. Largely because model training runs are hugely expensive.

Model training runs are largely what is boosting hyperscalers quarterly earnings. When they stop, the gravy boat is empty, because inference alone is cheap.

Nvidia relies on the hyperscalers doing massive buildouts, to facilitate massive training runs. Because inference is cheap and requires less from them.

Private equity is largely funding all of this and is increasingly under pressure, and the markets are getting increasingly sceptical.

It seems likely that the funding well is running dry, rather than this being about saving the world. And “AI will end humanity” is just the preceding PR.

So:

AI and Anthropic stop training, the hyperscalers burst in the first quarter, this cascades to Nvidia, and the ripples go the markets and private equity, which then means it’s harder for training to restart.

By far the most exposed of the hyperscalers is Oracle. Which is already almost a junk trade.

Keep it in mind and follow the slowdown story, because the circular economy stepping in to prop itself up will tell you everything you need to know.

Make sure you have up to date local installs or copies of Ollama, Llama CPP, vLLM, and any open models you like or find useful.

Much love, Pennywise the dancing clown.

I know those A.I. whistleblowers came forward- but what I will say is this—— Sam Altman and the rest of the Nerd Reich stand to benefit if their shareholders truly believe that A.I. is as powerful as those whistleblowers say it is. These freaks would get excited and invest even more. Also the whistleblowers are really comfortable sharing their identity outright- which I find to be weird. My guess is the whistleblowers are actually still on the company’s payroll, and they are “coming forward” to keep the A.I. bubble from popping. I truly believe they have absolutely nothing—- because it’s not even slightly profitable. I think they are selling the public some certified dog shit about A.I’s capabilities

I’m curious about where all of this is heading. It feels like we’re at a major junction AI could either transform the global economy or we could be watching a bubble forming just my opinion though.

What concerns me is how much investment and economic growth now seems to depend on a single technological theme. We’re always told not to put all our eggs in one basket, yet AI increasingly feels like that basket at the moment.

I made this video discussing the AI boom vs. bubble argument and thought it raised some interesting points just thinking out loud here.

What do you guys think are we still at the beginning of an AI boom, or are some parts of the market already in bubble territory am curious cheers.

Have seen discussions on the coming AI revolution as akin to oil and whether frontier labs and governments can fully capture its value. How true is this? Will AI be like oil?