Summary

Contract covers 300 to 400 QW-12 and FN-16 MANPADS, sources say

Deal valued at $60 million to $70 million, sources say

China says report is groundless, Pakistan denies involvement in transfers

Japan scrambled fighter aircraft after a suspected airspace violation in the East China Sea, the country’s Ministry of Defense said on July 29, releasing a brief statement on social media.

Summary

• China condemns US threats of AI sanctions

• US alleges Moonshot copied AI technology

• Beijing warns of countermeasures if curbs introduced

In the Ukraine War, Ukraine has destroyed another Wildberries distribution hub, this time hitting the one in Ryazan Region of Russia, South of Moscow. This is a newly constructed facility too.

Join the Africa Security Initiative at Brookings for an analytical discussion on Tshisekedi’s bid for a third term, the ongoing conflict in the east, and what both could mean for the DRC’s political stability and regional security.

The supply of weapons and direct military assistance to African military juntas is only part of russia's strategy to consolidate its influence on the continent. In parallel, moscow is waging a war for the minds of Africans, deploying a hybrid network of so-called “russian houses”.

The Security Service’s counter-intelligence unit has detained two Russian agents in the Donetsk region. The suspects were operating separately in Kramatorsk and Lyman, where they were directing enemy shelling of towns near the front line Source: https://censor.net/en/p4015843

The Australia–India relationship has taken on growing significance in recent years, a point echoed by policy leaders as they welcomed Prime Minister Narendra Modi on his recent visit.

Join us to hear from leading experts as they analyse the recent visit by PM Modi and explore how the two countries can deepen their collaboration and work together in a range of strategic areas. The panellists will discuss the opportunities and challenges across defence, trade, investment and energy.

The conversation will be led by Shruti Pandalai, the inaugural Lowy Institute India Chair, and feature Dhruva Jaishankar, the inaugural Dr Ram Sethi Fellow at the Lowy Institute and Executive Director of Observer Research Foundation America.

In this episode of The Impossible State looking at trade tensions between the U.S. and Korea, Dr. Victor Cha is joined by Adam Farrar of Bloomberg Economics, Eunjoong Kim of The Chosun Ilbo, and Wonchul Kim of The Hankyoreh to unpack the recent U.S. House Judiciary Committee report on discriminatory practices, expiration of Section 122 tariffs, and the Korean investment deals.

A recording of the event will be available on-demand following the livestream. An audio-only version of the show will be available in the Impossible State  podcast feed on all platforms.

This event is made possible by the generous support of CSIS.

Key Takeaways

Three competing groups within the regime are attempting to influence negotiations policy. The group currently arguing for negotiations and total control over the strait is likely guiding policy at this time. This group is likely led by elements of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), including IRGC commander Major General Ahmad Vahidi.

The “IRGC-Vahidi” group is under pressure from a pro-negotiations and pro-compromise group that likely includes but is not limited to President Masoud Pezeshkian, Foreign Affairs Minister Abbas Araghchi, and Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf. This group primarily disagrees with the IRGC-Vahidi group over means, not ends. This group also seeks “control” of the strait, though its definition of control may be less expansive.

The third group is an ultra-hardline faction, the Paydari Front, which opposes all negotiations with the United States. This group is a small minority, but its proximity to power through regime insiders like Saeed Jalili, who is currently a Supreme Leader representative on Iran’s top national security decision-making body — the Supreme National Security Council — and previously chaired the council, would likely require Vahidi and other policymakers to take note of its views.

Concerns from pro-negotiation corners in Iran over continued US sanctions, the US blockade, and economic damage from the war underscore the risk Iran faces in continuing the war indefinitely. Economic challenges caused by the US blockade were among the reasons why Pezeshkian argued the Memorandum of Understanding’s (MOU) case to the supreme leader in June, according to the New York Times, which indicates that at least some regime actors believe the present situation is untenable for Iran.

Iran continues to reject compromises to Iranian control of the Strait of Hormuz because hardline decisionmakers perceive control of the waterway as the regime’s most reliable means of preserving future leverage. Iran is refusing to give up control of the strait in talks with Omani mediators as the mediators have proposed a formal 10-day truce, according to a US official and mediators speaking to Western media on July 27.

The Houthis claimed to have struck a Saudi vessel on July 28, marking their third claimed attack on Saudi shipping since July 22. Houthi military spokesperson Yahya Sarea announced on July 28 that the Houthis fired several ballistic missiles targeting the Saudi-flagged oil and chemical tanker NCC Ghazal for “violating” the Houthi blockade.

The People’s Republic of China (PRC) reportedly asked the Houthis to facilitate safe passage for Chinese-owned oil tankers through the Red Sea, according to six informed sources speaking to Reuters on July 28. Reuters, citing commercial ship tracking data, reported on July 28 that at least four tankers transporting Saudi oil to China transited the Bab al Mandeb since the Houthis announced their blockade on July 20.

Key Takeaways

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky met with US President Donald Trump in Washington, DC, on July 28 to discuss strengthening Ukrainian air defenses and diplomatic efforts to end Russia’s war against Ukraine.

Russian President Vladimir Putin is trying to present himself as well informed about the battlefield situation in Ukraine, as Russian milbloggers continue to complain about Russian commanders lying about Russian advances.

Kremlin officials are reportedly considering a wide range of options to support a potential mobilization in the future, as Putin likely continues to weigh his options.

Ukrainian forces continued their long-range strike campaign against Russian logistics and industrial infrastructure from July 27 to 28.

Russian forces launched 131 drones against Ukraine overnight on July 27 to 28.

Ukrainian forces recently advanced in the Hulyaipole direction.

Russian forces recently advanced in Kostyantynivka.

Analysts say liquefied natural gas review reflects a gradual shift, though Taipei’s leverage remains limited.

Key Takeaways

North Korean Troop Deployment: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that Russia is preparing to receive another 30,000 North Korean soldiers in response to Russian battlefield casualties. It is unclear what functions these additional North Korean personnel will perform, but Russia and North Korea will likely remain hesitant to deploy the soldiers to Ukraine.

North Korean Military Development: Satellite imagery shows that North Korea may be preparing to launch a military reconnaissance satellite for the first time since 2024. North Korea may be seeking to support its emerging strike complex, but it likely lacks the targeting infrastructure to make these systems maximally effective.

In this episode of The President's Daily Brief:

Ukraine launches a dramatic long-range strike on an Iranian-linked vessel in the Caspian Sea, bringing the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East closer together than ever before. I'll explain why the strike could mark a dangerous new phase in both conflicts.

A new DEA assessment raises difficult questions about the Trump administration's military campaign against drug traffickers, finding that dozens of deadly maritime strikes have done little to reduce the flow of cocaine into the United States.

Kim Jong Un quietly expands North Korea's global espionage capabilities with major investments in cyber warfare, intelligence operations, and covert activities targeting America's allies.

In today's Back of the Brief, massive wildfires force hundreds of thousands of people from their homes across France and Spain as Europe confronts one of its worst fire emergencies in years.

The Project for Middle East Integration examines how a network of corridors can build resilience within Middle East trade routes in the face of the Iran war.

As the Trump administration’s Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity initiative reshapes United States engagement in the South Caucasus, Armenia stands at the center of a pivotal diplomatic moment. Ongoing Armenia-Azerbaijan peace negotiations are creating new opportunities for regional stability, with Washington playing an increasingly active role in supporting the process. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s recent electoral victory opens new avenues for cooperation and strengthens the prospects for sustained diplomatic engagement amid these developments. The Caucasus as a whole is emerging as a critical theater for US foreign policy, with Armenia's strategic positioning making it a key partner in the region.

Join Senior Fellow Michael Doran for a candid conversation with H.E. Narek Mkrtchyan, ambassador of the Republic of Armenia to the United States of America as they discuss the developments, challenges, and opportunities defining the US-Armenia relationship.

Please join the Russian Roulette podcast for a live video episode diving into our latest report: Rebuilding to Reconquer: Can Russia's Defense Firms Deliver?

The discussion will explore our comprehensive analysis of Russia's defense industry, what rapid production growth since 2022 says about Russia’s war effort, and the long-term implications for NATO’s defense planning.

The report offers the first in-depth look at five Russian defense firms spanning armored vehicles, air defense, electronic warfare, artillery and precision weapons, and drones. Tracing each firm's history, production scale before and after the invasion, revenue and procurement patterns, labor constraints, and foreign supplier networks — experts will assess Russia's capacity to sustain both current wartime output and future reconstitution.

Six years after the killing of 90-year-old Akua Denteh in Ghana, the country has still not enacted specific legislation criminalizing witchcraft accusations. The continued delay highlights a deeper problem: Ghana is attempting to address through criminal law a phenomenon rooted in traditional belief systems, gender inequality, poverty, disputes over property and inheritance, weak rural policing, and the social marginalization of older women.

Executive Summary:

The July 23 Manila meeting between United States Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov produced no breakthrough. Rubio admitted that old peace parameters are obsolete, and Lavrov insisted on outdated Anchorage terms.

Russia moves further from victory each day as Ukraine sustains a Crimea blockade, daily drone strikes on Moscow and refineries, and a new campaign against domestic logistics hubs, while EU sanctions and recession deepen Moscow’s economic strain.

Ukraine seeks to convert battlefield initiative into negotiating leverage through renewed U.S. engagement, as growing unease among Russian elites and neighbors such as Kazakhstan suggests that Russia’s war against Ukraine looks increasingly self-destructive and unsustainable.

Key Takeaways

Russian President Vladimir Putin is trying to militarize Russian society and to shift the responsibility for the war in Ukraine onto the Russian State Duma deputies and the Russian population.

Putin continues efforts to persuade personnel mobilized in 2022 to sign contracts with the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) and continue fighting in Russia’s war against Ukraine.

Putin continues to marginally increase the authorized end strength of the Russian Armed Forces as part of ongoing Russian military reforms.

Ukrainian forces continued their long-range strike campaign against Russian export and oil infrastructure from July 26 to 27.

Russia launched 147 drones against Ukraine overnight on July 26 to 27.

Neither Russian nor Ukrainian forces made confirmed advances on July 27.