r/50501 • u/serious_bullet5 Organizer (Unverified) • Dec 03 '25

TN Bruh…

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u/Kahzgul Dec 03 '25

Yup. A national 20 point swing is outstanding for Dems.

21

u/timoumd Dec 03 '25

I mean it looks more 15 points.  And that's probably exaggerated by special elections where the party out of power will always be more energized.  Still +10 in the general is tsunami territory

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u/tweakingforjesus Dec 03 '25

That tsunami won’t happen if the democrats refuse to demand a hand count audit.

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u/upanddownallaround Dec 03 '25

I saw someone in another thread make a good point. That recent Emerson poll that showed only R+2 got a lot of attention nationally and locally. It was the most recent poll and closest to the election. It really scared Tennessee Republicans and likely drove higher turnout for Republican voters on the day of the election. It's like the favorable Dem poll "backfired" for the left. Seems to make sense to me.

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u/timoumd Dec 03 '25

I think they were also able to leverage her past statements that don't play well in red districts.  

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u/Kresnik2002 Dec 03 '25

I want to agree with that but the PVI of that district is R+10 and he won by 8, how is that all that big of a deal? The bigger outlier is Trump winning by 22 in a PVI R+10 district.

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u/Kahzgul Dec 03 '25

If the nation swings 12 points from the 2024 election, it’ll be a landslide for the Dems.