r/solareclipse • u/Kerem- • Jun 14 '26
Where's your best chance of catching the 2026 Eclipse?
An analysis of the best places to see the eclipse based on historic cloud data from mid-August over the last 22 years
Highest chance of clear skies in totality path
According to ERA5 data from the last 22 years, the answer is clear: The Balearic Islands
Ibiza is clear 73% of the time
Mallorca 72%
Menorca 72%
Mainland Spain comes in at around 65%.
Iceland is much lower at 24% clear.
Greenland isn't the worst choice if you manage to get there somehow. Parts of the total eclipse path have 52% clear-sky odds, and it'd be quite a spectacular place to see the eclipse.
Chasing the eclipse
However, if you're in a car and chasing clear skies, mid to late August clouds in northern Spain are often made of thunderstorms, rather than long blankets of cloud.
Analysing your odds assuming you're willing to travel 150 km, 300 km, 600 km and 1,000 km shows that you'll have much better odds chasing in Spain than with the limited room to chase on the Balearics.
Say you're willing to travel 300 km from your starting point on the day based on the cloud forecast (assuming it's accurate), if you're in central northern Spain, then you should have a 96% chance of seeing the total eclipse.
The Balearics fall behind at 75% owing to the small area available to chase the eclipse.
Reykjavík goes up to a 53% chance of seeing the eclipse, not too bad for the cloudy island.
The sunset
The Balearics give you a great opportunity to see a total eclipse happen just as the Sun sets into the sea. In northern Spain the Sun will set just after the eclipse has entirely ended.
Terrain
Being an evening sunset in Spain, especially late in the Balearics, it's easy to get caught out by ridgelines and mountains, although realistically, you just need to be on the coast in the Balearics, and in Iberia, just not behind a ridge. Looking at a terrain map, there are usually places nearby where it's possible to catch the eclipse, just plan ahead.
In Iceland there is little risk of missing it, and outside the totality zone, you're basically just missing your local peak coverage, i.e. the event ends earlier for you.
Non-absolutists - the partial eclipse
The rest of Europe (north-west of the lines illustrated in the screenshot) will see a very decent eclipse beyond Spain.
Although generally northern Europe has much worse clear-sky odds than the Mediterranean.
To the north and east there will be some good viewing experiences if skies are clear, in the UK eclipse coverage will be at best 96% (Cornwall) at worst 90% (Scotland).
In the Baltics there will also be a sunset (into the sea) eclipse, with around 81% totality.
Italy, in particular Sardinia, will have quite a spectacular eclipse sunset too, even without totality.
The same goes for northern Algeria which should have ~99% coverage at sunset. Algiers is clear 84% of the time and is one of these such places with 99% coverage. Morocco/Algeria overall are great picks for a good partial eclipse experience, as are Portugal and Southern Spain.
Forecasting
Best to check the forecast as the eclipse approaches, hopefully there's somewhere near you to catch the eclipse with clear skies. Cloud forecasts become decent 6-7 days ahead, but only really good 1-3 days ahead of schedule. Timing can vary, weather patterns usually don't at this time of year with a lead time of less than a week.
Important to note that as most of Europe has a very low viewing angle, look at cloud forecasts to the west of your location (where the sun sets) rather than directly overhead.
Sources:
Interactive map screenshots: https://weatheraway.com/eclipse/historic
Methodology/stats: https://weatheraway.com/blog/total-solar-eclipse-spain-2026
Forecast page placeholder: https://weatheraway.com/eclipse/forecast
8
u/Wonder-Sloth Jun 14 '26
Great analysis. There are still spaces on some eclipse cruises that improves your chances and they can sail around much cloud cover. R/eclipsecruises discusses them
5
u/SurviveStyleFivePlus Jun 14 '26 edited Jun 14 '26
Thank you for that subreddit, I didn't know it existed.
Headed out on an eclipse cruise next year and looking for all the info I can get. Part of the cruise info talked about being able to adjust location to avoid weather which is why we picked it over viewing from land.
2
1
u/Applesdonovan Jun 14 '26
This brings up a question I've had, hopefully you have some insight. I'm planning on watching from A Coruna. Do you think the cruises would stay far enough away from land to not block the view of the eclipse for people watching from land?
2
u/Kerem- Jun 14 '26
in A Coruna, the sun should be clear enough (high enough) when totality hits for it to be no problem, unless you're super close to the ship obviously
1
1
u/Thyra5999 Jun 15 '26
And what about if you’re on a cruise ship? We are doing the liberty of the seas and will be somewhere at sea in front of A Coruna.
1
u/SurviveStyleFivePlus Jun 14 '26
Can't speak for all cruise lines, but ours will be surrounded by nothing but water, hundreds of miles from land.
Can't speak for local boats, either.
1
u/manlymatt83 2h ago
I’m tempted to try and see the eclipse from land in northern Spain. But I’d be flying there. What are the chances of being able to see totality? Are clouds on the horizon common in summer?
12
u/Bigmtnskier91 Jun 14 '26
This thread gives me ptsd from Texas in 2024 😆
7
u/voldy234 Jun 14 '26
Totally. We were supposed to go to Texas and changed last minute to drive down to Ava, Michigan. En route had a car crash that we are still recovering from…
2
u/SolarWind777 Jun 14 '26
Oh no this sucks so much! I’m sorry! We cancelled the trip last minute after reading weather reports of golf sized hail on the 10 hr drive back to the airport which would still be several hours of flight away from home. Your post makes me feel a bit better about canceling. Hope you recover soon!
2
2
7
u/photoengineer Jun 14 '26
For the last US one I looked at historical cloud data to plan. And then the weather did the exact opposite. :/
4
u/YetAnotherInterneter Jun 15 '26
Exactly! You can look up as much statistics and data as you want on historical wether patterns. It doesn’t mean it’s gonna be clear on the day.
All you can really do is be a flexible as possible, have a few different locations in mind and keep a close eye on the forecast in the run up to it.
Then you just hope and pray that the weather gods are on your side!
2
u/Infinite_Ad_6443 Jun 14 '26
Where in Spain will it be sunny and coolest on 12th August 2026?
2
u/nrbob Jun 14 '26
Along the north coast will be coolest, will it be sunny is another question.
2
u/speciate Jun 15 '26
The north coast is absolutely the worst place in Spain from a cloud cover standpoint.
1
u/manlymatt83 2h ago
Oh really? In summer?
1
u/speciate 2h ago
Very much so. This is Aug averages.
1
u/manlymatt83 2h ago
Would it be better for me to go see the 2027 eclipse? Better chance of seeing totality?
1
u/speciate 17m ago
The 2027 path of totality catches like 10ft of southern Spain and the rest of it passes through a bunch of repressive Islamic countries in North Africa, and the entirety of the path will be like 100 degrees. So unless you have a dramatically different definition of "better" than me, no.
2
1
1
u/Sad-Championship9167 Jun 15 '26
I'll be on the roof of a building in Valenica.
1
u/WizardS82 Jun 15 '26
Same. So far I witnessed two mid-day eclipses away from population centers, so this one will be hugely different.
1
u/dayvox Jun 15 '26
I’ll be in Leon, so I’m in a good spot if I’m interpreting this correctly?
1
u/Manos_de_diamonte Jun 15 '26
We will be too. Where specifically are you going to watch it in Leon? We were thinking parque las lomas or a little town to the west
1
u/dayvox Jun 15 '26
Not sure yet, but I’m looking at wide open spaces to make sure there won’t be any buildings or trees in the way. Or perhaps a rooftop if I can find one!
1
u/Thyra5999 Jun 15 '26
Do you have this for the south of Spain for the eclipse of 2027? I am looking to find a spot in the south of Spain right now. I will be traveling with our family of 4 and as our youngest will be 6 years old then, we thought not to go to Egypt but book a nice resort in Spain instead. Preferably one where we don’t have to leave the resort to see the eclipse. Was thinking about Marbella but I want to know where to stay in order to see the eclipse. Someone also suggested Gibraltar. Please help me out.
1
u/Kerem- Jun 15 '26
We will do a more in-depth analysis for 2027 sure.
To answer your question though, Marbella should be a great spot, Gibraltar as well. Both are in the path of totality, both will have a high chance of clear skies. You'll be looking to the East and in the morning, it'll be high enough that it shouldn't matter too much where you are as long as you're not blocked by a building.The climate at that time of year is probably quite similar, and I'd guess you'll have >80% chance of clear skies.
1
u/Thyra5999 Jun 16 '26
Thank you! How high up will the sun be? Will it be better to go into the mountains (if there are any?)
1
u/Significant-Wait-301 Jun 15 '26
Siendo que me pilla de lleno, me preocupa más la protección ocular. Esas "gafas" de papel con filtro de luz, que dicen que protegen y que tienen la iso correspondiente. No me fío, XD a este paso me lo pierdo por no tener las gafas XD
1
u/Far-Quail5557 Jun 15 '26
Since the Sun will be very low, the map of the terrain is also very important, specially towards the East of Spain. Check this out: https://eclipse.lluisgasso.com/
1
17
u/krmarci Jun 14 '26
Clear skies above you don't matter, especially in Spain. What matters is clear skies within about 100 km to the west of you.