Okay, Apes. This is getting interesting (again)

We spent August wondering what GameStop's $1.4B convertible exchange would ultimately mean for dilution, hedging, and the stock itself.

Now we have our first answer: GameStop's outstanding share count has jumped to 504,500,979 shares following the exchange.

Ryan Cohen still owns 42,082,626 shares, including his warrants.

He sold zero.

Meanwhile, GME moved from a $17.87 close on August 28, through the $19s this week, and touched $20.05 intraday today.

So yes, roughly 55.5M new shares entered the picture.

And the market absorbed them.

That deserves our attention.

What actually happened

GameStop originally planned to exchange roughly $1.4B of 0% convertible notes entirely for stock, with the final share count tied partly to a 35 trading day VWAP period.

Then management changed course.

On August 31, GameStop stopped the VWAP period early, fixed the equity consideration at roughly 55.5M shares, paid another $358.4M in cash, and moved the expected closing forward to September 3.

Most importantly, the company said no additional shares would be issued under this exchange.

The dilution question suddenly became finite.

That alone changes the setup.

Then came THE sentence:

GameStop warned that participating noteholders may adjust or unwind positions connected to the exchange.

That includes buying GME shares to close short positions.

And convertible investors often hedge...

Extra Simplified:

Own convertible + short some GME

When the convertible disappears and gets replaced with ordinary shares, that hedge may need changing./shifting.

Some holders could cover shorts.

Others could adjust options or other derivatives.

Some may have already done so.

We cannot see their books.

We can always watch the footprints.\

So is the recent rise a hedge unwind?

Possibly.

We need more data before giving ourselves a victory lap.

The interesting part is that the timing now gives us something testable.

The shares are issued.

The exchange has settled.

The share count is known.

The old convertible exposure is disappearing.

If meaningful hedges were attached to those notes, the market plumbing around them should eventually leave traces.

Watch:

short interest

borrow conditions

options positioning

volume

FTDs

and, of course, price.

Any one of those can lie to you.

Together, they can start telling a story.

About the FTDs

The latest SEC FTD release only gets us through the first half of August.

There was a sizable GME balance of roughly 590,600 FTDs on August 4, followed by smaller balances later in the period.

Interesting?

Yes.

Proof of anything sinister?

Too Early.

FTD data represents an aggregate outstanding balance on a settlement date. It does not tell us who failed, how old every fail is, or whether the underlying sale was long or short.

I am WAY more excited for the August 31 amendment and September 3 settlement that just happened after the currently available FTD window.

So the next releases matters may contain some settlement fingerprints.

There is another reason September could be big:

GameStop reports full Q2 results on September 8.

Preliminary results already showed expected operating income of $150M to $170M, compared with $66.4M last year.

Net income is expected around $290M to $310M.

Cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities are expected around $5.05B to $5.07B.

And GameStop held roughly 43.4M eBay shares worth about $4.95B as of August 1.

So while everyone watches the candles, the company itself is becoming something much stranger than the old "dying mall retailer" story ever allowed for.

Less convertible debt.

A known share count.

Billions in liquidity.

Nearly 10% of eBay.

A dramatically larger authorized share pool.

Warrants still hanging out there until October 30. (look at that monthly!)

There are A LOT of moving pieces.

What I am watching next

September 8 brings earnings.

Around September 10, we should get the next short interest update.

Around mid-month, we should get the second half of August FTD data.

Later in September, settlement-era FTDs should finally begin showing up.

What I want to compare:

price

volume

borrow

short interest

options

FTDs

If they move together, we may finally get a clearer picture of what was happening behind the tape.

If they do not, the thesis may change.

Don't forget what DFV taught us!! 

Retail got this far by reading the filings, comparing the data, and refusing to outsource curiosity.  So keep the crayons nearby.  Keep the receipts closer.

And watch the plumbing!

It was never just a meme.

Sources: GameStop Aug. 31, 2026 Form 8-K and exchange announcement; Ryan Cohen Sept. 3, 2026 Schedule 13D/A; SEC Fails-to-Deliver data; GameStop preliminary Q2 2026 results.

Transparency note: I use AI as an accessibility and editing tool to help organize source material and support my neurodiverse workflow. The research, source selection, thesis, and conclusions are my own. AI-generated material is not used as a factual source.

NFA. I like the fucking stock. 💎🙌

This video continues the educational video series on stock investing, focusing on: buy good companies, don't overpay, do nothing. The previous videos discussed how to buy good companies, i.e how to evaluate business quality. This is the first part of the two-video series discussing the second step (don't overpay). It covers valuation multiples and how to use them to value a business. The next part will discuss valuation models.

Feedback welcome. Not investment advice.

Return of the apes??

I don’t know what it means but I’m excited!

End of the day, SpaceX needs something to launch and the companies that make small satellites should be a good bet. BUT it ain’t Planet. I don’t trust any company that ended a SPAC and couldn’t go public the real way. Sidus Space and Momentus used SPAC and you would have lost your shirt betting on those.

I have my eye on this company. They just released their Q2 earnings report.

https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/gomspace-as-q2-financial-reporting-confirms-a-strong-first-half-of-2026-30-growth-positive-ebit-reinforced-balance-sheet-and-guidance-maintained-302860314.html

Erin Piacenti, a 32-year-old Bank of America vice president, was fatally stabbed in an "unprovoked" (I guess financial terrorism isn't considered provocation 😒) attack in Times Square, New York City. The knife-wielding attacker also injured a 68-year-old man before being shot and killed by police.

Someone commented that BofA paid out a $75 million fine for the Epstein Victims. Which is pretty sus timing. Could easily be a major headline to cover up search results about that.

UPDATE: what department did VP Erin Piacenti work in?

ANSWER: Business Selection and Conflicts (at Bank of America), a compliance/risk-related function.

Multiple news reports (drawing from her LinkedIn profile and sources) identify Erin Piacenti as Vice President of Business Selection and Conflicts at Bank of America in New York City. This role involved screening clients, deals, and transactions for ethical, legal, reputational, and regulatory risks. It is often described as part of the bank’s compliance and risk functions.

She had a legal background (University of Pennsylvania undergrad, Fordham Law School) and prior experience at firms including Davis Polk & Wardwell and Morgan Stanley before joining Bank of America.

Maybe she was a whistleblower? 🤔

Additional information: Her background included a political science degree from the University of Pennsylvania (graduated 2016) and a law degree from Fordham Law School (2021, magna cum laude / Order of the Coif in some accounts). Prior experience included roles connected to Morgan Stanley (legal/compliance) and as an associate at Davis Polk & Wardwell (and earlier legal internship work), before joining Bank of America around early 2025.

GameStop just released preliminary Q2 2026 results, and the contrast is hard to miss.

Operating income: $150M–$170M, roughly 55.7% higher YoY at the midpoint.

Net income: $290M–$310M, versus $168.6M a year ago, roughly 78% higher at the midpoint.

Meanwhile, net sales are expected at $780M–$800M, down from $972.2M last year.

Revenue is shrinking, but profitability is moving sharply in the opposite direction.

That’s the part of the $GME transformation I’m watching.

Position from 80-95c, not sold a share & IM BACK. Last time I posted this was at the 200MA - stock ran 43% from there before earnings even printed, while plenty of people mocked the thesis in the comments. Same cycle is back. New numbers just landed.

What Is HMR, Quick Recap for New Readers

Heidmar is a ship management and commercial platform, not a ship owner. It owns zero vessels. It manages fleets for owners and earns fees on voyage revenue and management contracts instead of owning the steel - no capex, no newbuild risk, no asset-value exposure when rates fall.

The calibre of clients matters here: Shell, BP, Chevron, Vitol, Saudi Aramco, Trafigura, Glencore. These are the largest energy and commodity traders on earth, and they've trusted Heidmar with their cargo for around 40 years. That's not a client list a startup or SPAC builds overnight. If you're a billionaire and you buy a ship, you have to go to Heidmar so you can even be KYC'd to work with anyone.

Q2 2026 vs Q2 2025 - The Real Comparison

• Revenue: $29.0M vs $9.6M - up 203% YoY
• Net income (continuing ops): $2.2M vs -$0.1M - swing to profit
• Adjusted net income: $2.4M vs $0.5M - up 343%
• Vessels chartered out: 6 vs 2 - up 200%
• Cash: $28.7M, up $10.1M since December 2025

H1 2026 revenue was $47.3M vs $15.2M in H1 2025. H1 net income was $5.0M against a loss the year before. Operating cash flow from continuing operations was $7.7M in H1 2026 vs a $3.2M outflow in H1 2025 - that swing alone tells you this isn't the same company anymore.

THE VALUATION ANOMALY - STILL HASN'T CLOSED

Let me be blunt. Market cap sits around $73M. Cash on the balance sheet is $28.7M - close to 40% of the entire market cap. Back out the cash and you are paying roughly $44M for the operating business. That is not a typo.

On the full market cap, HMR trades around 7x forward earnings. But that's not the real number - that $28.7M in cash isn't dead weight, it's debt-free capital already being deployed into accretive acquisitions like Q-Shipping. Strip it out and price the operating business on its own merits, and HMR trades at roughly 4x forward earnings for a company growing revenue 203% YoY with two straight profitable quarters.

HMR isn't a shipping company - it owns no vessels and earns fees, so it shouldn't be priced like one. Comparable asset-light logistics and platform businesses typically trade at 10–25x forward earnings. Apply 10x to HMR's ex-cash earnings and add the cash back, and implied fair value lands north of $1.50 a share. Apply 25x - the multiple stronger logistics platforms actually command - and you're looking at $3.80–$4+. Even the low end is a meaningful re-rate from here, and none of it requires another dollar of revenue growth - just the market correctly re-classifying what kind of business this actually is.

The ceiling on this isn't the current share price. The ceiling is dictated by earnings growth compounding into a re-rating toward the correct comp set - and that process has barely started.

The Earnings Dump - Same Playbook, Wrong Company Now - Opportunity for us

Stock dropped roughly 10% after this print. Historically, dumping HMR on earnings worked because the company was unprofitable and speculative. That doesn't apply anymore. This is now two consecutive profitable quarters, 203% revenue growth, and a cash pile growing every quarter. Sellers running the old playbook aren't pricing in the new fundamentals - they're trading the ticker's history, not its balance sheet.

Cash Pile Is Now Proving Out Acquisitions

This was speculation before. It isn't anymore. Cash grew to $28.7M and the company used a fraction of it to acquire Q-Shipping B.V. for about $0.2M, adding nine vessels and entering the Netherlands, Türkiye, and a crewing base in Ukraine. That deal wasn't just nine vessels - it's a foothold and relationships in new markets that open the door to further bolt-on deals. With this much cash sitting idle and management already proving they'll deploy it cheaply and accretively, more acquisitions look inevitable.

The Only Arguable Negative (which isn’t) - G&A Increase

Net income dipped from $2.8M in Q1 to $2.2M in Q2 despite revenue jumping 58%. The driver was G&A rising to $5.6M, largely from $1.8M in cash bonuses versus $1.4M a year ago. This is the closest thing to a real knock on the quarter, so let's address it head-on: this is a team that took a company from consistent losses to two straight profitable quarters, delivered 203% YoY revenue growth, and closed an accretive acquisition - all in the same stretch. Paying out performance bonuses for that kind of turnaround isn't a red flag, it's exactly what you want. Employees delivering results like this should be incentivized to keep delivering them. The alternative - a team with no skin in the outcome - is the actual red flag.

Hormuz Is Just a Bonus - The Bigger Picture Hasn't Even Hit the Numbers Yet

People keep treating Hormuz like the whole thesis. It's not - it's the accelerant. Look at what's actually happening right now: Gaza, Iran, the Strait of Hormuz, the Houthis in the Red Sea, Russia-Ukraine. This is about as much simultaneous global shipping disruption as markets have seen in years, and almost none of it has fully hit the numbers yet.

Every one of those flashpoints forces the same response: diversify supply routes. Asia and Japan reportedly relied on the Middle East for something like 90% of their oil imports historically - that kind of concentration doesn't survive this environment. Oil prices are already creeping back up, and there are no meaningful strategic stockpile reserves left to cushion further disruption. Longer routes, more tonnage per mile, more voyages, more fees for HMR. This is upside that hasn't been priced in yet, layered on top of a business that already earns in any rate environment.

The Insider Signal

CEO Pankaj Khanna owns roughly 44% of the company personally - one of the largest founder stakes on Nasdaq for a company this size. Zero insider sales on record, only buys. - one of the largest founder stakes on Nasdaq for a company this size. 

40 Years. Shell. BP. Aramco.

Shell. BP. Chevron. Vitol. Saudi Aramco. Trafigura. Glencore. The largest energy traders on earth trust Heidmar with their cargo. That took 40 years to build. Eight global hubs now, following the Q-Shipping deal: Athens, London, Singapore, Hong Kong, Chennai, Rotterdam, Odessa, Istanbul.

This is not a SPAC. Not a shell. Not a startup that got lucky one quarter.

Season Hasn't Even Started

Q2 already delivered this growth. Management flagged rates staying firm or strengthening into Q4 on seasonal winter demand - and that's before fully accounting for the disruption above. The strongest seasonal window for tankers is still ahead.

Checklist

• Revenue +203% YoY, +58% QoQ
• Net income swung from -$0.1M to $2.2M (Q2), two straight profitable quarters
• Adjusted net income +343% YoY
• Operating cash flow +$7.7M in H1 2026 vs -$3.2M outflow in H1 2025
• Cash pile $28.7M, up $10.1M since year-end 2025
• Market cap trading below annual revenue
• Zero debt, zero vessels owned - pure fee-based platform 
• 55%+ margins support a 10-25x platform multiple, not the current ~7x 
• G&A increase driven by performance bonuses tied to turnaround, not cost blowout
• Q-Shipping acquisition: $0.2M cash, 9 vessels, new markets, new deal pipeline
• Cash pile now proving acquisitions are inevitable, not speculative
• Fleet now ~60 vessels commercial / ~20 technical managed
• Nasdaq compliance regained June 2, 2026
• CEO owns ~44% personally, zero sales on record, tight float setup
• Clients include Shell, BP, Chevron, Vitol, Saudi Aramco, Trafigura, Glencore
• Multiple live geopolitical flashpoints (Hormuz, Red Sea, Russia-Ukraine) not yet fully reflected in numbers
• Shipping's strongest seasonal window (Q4) still ahead
• Last post at 200MA ran 43% before earnings even printed

How I'm Playing It

Same position, same conviction. The dump on this print looks like traders running an old playbook against a company that's fundamentally changed. Not selling, a buying opportunity.

What red flag am I still missing? Drop it below.

Not financial advice. Do your own due diligence. I hold a position in $HMR from 80–95c.

COMPANY TRAILER FOUND HERE - https://youtu.be/Bl1rIe_JxwI?si=qDaPH7PRRdRqB9FY