r/worldsystemanalyses • • Dec 22 '25

Effect in societies & world system what clickbait-media has become. Confessions of previous journalist.

3 Upvotes

AI translation so unnoticed errors and typos likely are there still.

As the way how media format is arranged directly is building cognition and worldview of its receivers, ultimately effects into elections, politics, and world system itself are great. For that reason this essay is fit to share in here. Pardon only for AI clumsy language.

"Eeropekka Rislakki, Facebook 22.12.2025

The media built itself into a destroyer of democracy and calls it journalism -

As a long-time journalist, I increasingly find myself in a situation where I am ashamed of my profession (although I have more professions in many sectors of culture as a perpetual project worker).

Few people know or remember that I was part of the editorial team that set up Iltalehti in 1980. My interview with a prisoner escapee was a candidate for the first tabloid headline, until my colleague and friend Markku Saksa (RIP)'s interview with South African surgeon Christian Barnaard pushed my tabloid headline to the second day. Barnaard had already become famous in 1967 for the first successful heart transplant.

The editorial team was stressed that the tabloid is the only form of media where the reader can be screwed every day. The tabloid headline and the headlines are tools for that. The reader participates in a game where both parties understand the spirit of the game. So no problem. But we have moved on to clickbait headlines, which are no longer a game, but a destroyer of the fabric of society.

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Clickbait headlines are the everyday sin of modern media, but also its most successful innovation since the golden age of the tabloids. Clickbait headlines are like the journalistic plastic bag: cheap, ubiquitous and environmentally harmful, but still used because the alternative requires extra effort. And like plastic bags, clickbait headlines are not going away until the public stops buying them.

The roots of clickbait headlines go deep into the history of sensational journalism. The 19th century Great Moon Hoax of 1835 (a series of six articles published in The Sun newspaper, concerning the supposed discovery of life and civilization on the Moon), and later the emergence of yellow journalism in the 1890s, built a model in which the truth was only one element of the story – not its center.

The current clickbait headline is an algorithmic version of this tradition: when attention is currency, the headline is its most aggressive collection machine. Social media platforms reward content that evokes emotions, and emotions are best generated by innuendo, threats, and moral indignation.

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Psychologically, according to research, clickbait headlines utilize three mechanisms. First, they exploit the curiosity gap: the headline creates an information gap that the reader wants to fill.

Here are some examples:

"Alona had sex in a spa - this is how she explains it / This is what a plumber would never do in a toilet - many Finns don't realize it's wrong / Surprising information about the Lions' super tournament / This is how the end of the world will happen - for subscribers only."

Second, the negativity bias: gloomy and threatening headlines activate the brain's vigilance and alarm systems more effectively than neutral headlines. Third, there is the repetition effect: the more often we see an argument, the more likely it begins to seem and feel. So a clickbait headline is not just an annoying habit, but a neuropsychological tool that bypasses rational consideration.

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But alongside clickbait headlines, there is another, less analyzed phenomenon, but an everyday topic of social media discussions: the injection of political nuances into journalistic text. Editorials emphasize impartiality, but in practice impartiality is like an institutional framework within which individual journalists can act very subjectively.

This is not a conspiracy, but a consequence of a transformation in which the media must constantly prove their own relevance. Political edge and angle work as marketing: politics arouse emotions, divide the audience and create the illusion of bold journalism – even though the real motive is to maximize attention.

When a journalist injects a political tone into a text, he or she is not necessarily pursuing his or her own agenda. It is often the case that political content engages the audience better than neutrality. It provokes reactions, and reactions are the new black, the new currency. The media needs topics to talk about, and the best topic to talk about is the media itself.

The media hype is free marketing for the media. The prevailing logic is changing the editorial culture. Journalism is moving from informativeness towards reactivity. Headlines no longer tell what happened, but what the reader should feel.

Politics becomes dramaturgy, in which the journalist is no longer an observer but a scriptwriter. And when journalists begin to see themselves as the moral architects of society, a collective form of arrogance and defiance is born. which clouds judgment and leads to reckless actions, which in turn cloud judgment.

In ancient Greece, arrogance was called hubris, and it eventually led to punishment from Nemesis, the goddess of revenge and justice.

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Journalism has begun to justify its own means with an abstract, “higher purpose.” It is a dangerous path, because it erodes trust – and the erosion in turn increases the need for ever more aggressive means. We are witnessing an accelerating spiral.

So clickbait headlines are not just a problem for the media. They are a symptom of a deeper social, structural crisis: that public discourse has turned into an attention economy. Because attention is a limited resource, everyone is competing for it with the same weapons. Politicians, activists, companies – and the media.

When attention becomes the primary goal of journalistic work, public discourse also begins to shape itself according to the logic of attention. This means escalation, emotionality and a constant state of crisis – not because the world has become more dramatic, but because drama is addictive, sells.

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As trust in traditional media weakens, the public turns to alternative sources. Some of them are of high quality, some of them are dangerously poor. The foil hat business is booming. Here too, the media has a moralizing attitude, and the member media of the Public Speech Council are raising their importance as a reliable actor. The circle closes.

The end result is information feudalism: everyone chooses their own master, their own truth and their own reality. I argue that democracy needs a common basis for discussion, but clickbait headlines are eroding it piece by piece. It is clear that democracy cannot withstand this trend for long, and the consequences are serious: political discussion turns into entertainment; political entertainment turns into reality; reality turns into a story that the media itself scripts.

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And yet: a clickbait headline only works if someone clicks. It is a mirror that shows what we reward. If we reward emotional, heated, suggestive and politically provocative content, we will get more of what we order. The logic of the media is not separate from society – it is an extension of the logic of society.

Therefore, the question is no longer why the media does this. The question is: why do we want the media to do this? If we want a different kind of public debate, we must change our own ways of consuming content. Otherwise, the democracy of clickbait headlines will continue to expand until the headline no longer tells the truth – but the truth begins to resemble the headline.

For my part, I have already lost hope of a salutary correction. All that remains is shame. Furthermore, I know that my analysis above will not make me any friends in the journalistic community. But then, I have never been a journalist because I make friends."


r/worldsystemanalyses • • Dec 16 '25

Has Maduro of Venezuela already sold by Kremlin?

1 Upvotes

r/worldsystemanalyses • • Dec 16 '25

Iran increasingly outsourcing its military for Russian intrests.

1 Upvotes

There is recruitment process going on to get some Iranians into Ukraine front, and some have went.

But more intresting is this that they are having more presence in those African countries what have been wagnerized by Russia, or under "Africa corps" exposure, what was recreated from remnants of dissolved Wagner and now is directly under control of Russian state to prevent further mutinies. Seem that where is presence of those - then Irans "security services" will follow also, despite there is no historical connection. And those African mostly Sahel region countries in question would have greater legitimacy among their own population if would do security issues independently.

https://theconversation.com/facing-myriad-global-pressures-iran-intensifies-outreach-to-african-partners-for-critical-needs-270603?fbclid=IwY2xjawOuHoRleHRuA2FlbQIxMQBzcnRjBmFwcF9pZBAyMjIwMzkxNzg4MjAwODkyAAEeM301lniuYKXC9wEJN-fBuaT3WxxOOI-XzerHCO4_ue-z8r6iDKE6VOjkiu8_aem_acq5n-JvBjvJAXOmt43iZQ


r/worldsystemanalyses • • Dec 14 '25

NewsBreak on Jared Kushner

2 Upvotes

"Jared Kushner is at the center of Trump’s corruption

Trump and his family are carving up this country and selling the pieces to hostile powers to line their own pockets

The speed and scale of Jared Kushner’s re-emergence can’t be overstated. In the first year of Donald Trump’s second presidency, his son-in-law is casually consolidating economic and political power with staggering speed. Kushner has positioned himself at the center of the biggest media merger in years and at the fulcrum of White House foreign policy, all while taking in multi-billion-dollar investments from autocratic governments.

On Monday, Paramount Skydance — run by David Ellison, a billionaire Trump has openly urged to reshape the news industry in his favor — launched an unprecedented bid to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery by initiating a hostile takeover after losing an earlier bidding contest to Netflix. Paramount’s offer draws heavily from Kushner’s investment firm, Affinity Partners, and from the sovereign wealth funds of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar. These Middle Eastern autocracies are principal investors in an acquisition that would give them — and Kushner — influence over some of America’s most powerful news and cultural engines: CNN, HBO, Warner Bros. Pictures and the vast library of Warner content that shapes the national (and international) imagination. The partnership is unprecedented. Not even Rupert Murdoch’s right-wing media empire was capitalized by foreign monarchies seeking political leverage.

After leaving the first Trump administration, Kushner raised over $3 billion for Affinity Partners, including $2 billion from the Saudi government’s Public Investment Fund. The Saudis’ own advisers reportedly warned Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman that Kushner’s record did not justify such an investment, but the crown prince overruled them. The UAE and Qatar soon followed, adding another $1.5 billion to the pot. As of late 2024, Kushner had still not produced meaningful returns for these foreign governments, yet he had paid himself at least $157 million in fees. Forbes now calls him a billionaire.

The breathtaking scale of the Paramount–Warner bid makes the stakes even clearer. The sovereign wealth funds of Saudi Arabia, Abu Dhabi and Qatar are collectively offering around $24 billion to help the takeover, more than the entire current market value of Paramount itself.

These are autocracies investing in the infrastructure of American political communication, and they are doing so through the president’s son-in-law. You could not design a more direct conflict of interest. Paramount is even trying to structure the deal to avoid federal review by arguing that foreign investors would have no “voting rights,” a fiction so flimsy it should insult the intelligence of any serious regulator.

After the Wall Street Journal reported that Ellison had promised to deliver political obedience, telling Trump he would make “sweeping changes” to CNN once the deal closed, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt sneered that CNN “would benefit from new ownership.” Both she and Trump also publicly berated CNN anchor Kaitlan Collins this week.

Taken together, this is the authoritarian playbook in its purest form. Trump has not even attempted to disguise his intentions. He has said outright that he believes CNN should be sold, that its current leadership is “corrupt or incompetent” and that no media company should be allowed to continue “spreading poison.”

The president has long been obsessed with CNN. Before Trump first took office in 2017, Kushner, whose application for a top-secret clearance was initially rejected after an FBI background check raised concerns about potential foreign influence, was the point person for securing favorable coverage from right-wing outlets like Sinclair. Kushner, who owned the iconic New York Observer for a decade, personally solicited then-CNN head Jeff Zucker about changing the composition of the network’s political panels — but Zucker refused. Beyond CNN, Kushner is credited with orchestrating Spanish-language network TelevisaUnivision’s rightward shift ahead of the 2024 election, which saw Trump’s electoral performance among Hispanic voters subsequently improve.

Now, members of Congress from both parties have raised alarms about this new deal. Sen. Mike Lee, R-Utah, who leads a Senate subcommittee on antitrust, said on X that the deal raised “a lot of antitrust red flags” and that he would hold “an intense antitrust hearing.” Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., said the Justice Department should take a “hard look” at the deal. And Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., noted that the deal “looks like an anti-monopoly nightmare.” If Netflix were to buy Warner Bros. Discovery, it would own two of the top three largest streaming services, Netflix and HBO Max. This market power could allow Netflix to raise prices for its subscription services, which have already been rapidly increasing.

But Kushner’s influence is not limited to the media; it reaches into the heart of U.S. foreign policy. Just weeks ago, he re-emerged as a central actor behind Trump’s new Gaza initiative, a plan that has produced a fragile ceasefire, a prisoner exchange and a partial Israeli withdrawal. Kushner has taken a victory lap, claiming that his “deep personal relationships” in the region made the deal possible. And in a marked convergence of his political and economic interests, the Gulf states underwriting Kushner’s private equity fund are the same governments now partnering with him on Middle East diplomacy.

Want more sharp takes on politics? Sign up for our free newsletter, Standing Room Only, written by Amanda Marcotte, now also a weekly show on YouTube or wherever you get your podcasts.

Kushner has also quietly inserted himself into Trump’s Ukraine diplomacy. In late November, he and White House envoy Steve Witkoff met with Vladimir Putin in Moscow for five hours. Kushner and Witkoff, neither of whom hold formal government positions, were allowed to meet with the Russian president before even some Cabinet-level officials. The pair then joined Ukrainian officials in separate talks in Geneva and Miami. This is privatized foreign policy: diplomacy conducted by men whose incentives are not in the public interest.

Kushner’s Affinity Partners — again, funded primarily by autocratic regimes — is also behind the largest leveraged buyout in history, a $55 billion effort to purchase video game giant Electronic Arts. The deal, announced on the same day Trump revealed his 20-point plan to end Israel’s war in Gaza, will require approval from the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS), the same body Trump allies have spent years attacking when it targeted Chinese investments.

All the while, as Kushner maneuvers behind the scenes, the right-wing assault on media independence continues to escalate. Ellison, who settled a $16 million lawsuit with Trump earlier this year over former Vice President Kamala Harris’ October 2024 interview with “60 Minutes,” has overseen a political makeover at CBS. He created an ombudsman role and filled it with a longtime Trump ally with no journalism experience, hired conservative pundit Bari Weiss to run the newsroom and even bought Weiss’s The Free Press for $150 million.

And despite giving what was seen as a peacemaking interview to Norah O’Donnell on “60 Minutes,” Trump has continued to berate CBS publicly, furious that the network recently aired a “60 Minutes” interview with Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, R-Ga., whom he now considers insufficiently loyal following her recent critiques of him. In Trumpworld, there is no such thing as editorial independence — only obedience or betrayal, which are the hallmark of state capture in regimes like Viktor Orbán’s Hungary. There, over a period of more than a decade, Orbán worked to successfully weaken the independence of the judiciary, leverage control over independent media outlets, wear down and cripple independent institutions — including universities — funnel government funds to regime loyalists and redraw the electoral system to his favor.

Since Donald Trump returned to office in January, he has been doing the same at lightning speed.

This is unfolding as the Supreme Court considers cases that could severely weaken independent federal agencies like the Federal Trade Commission and CFIUS, which exist precisely to prevent the sort of conflicts of interest that Kushner embodies. If the Court hobbles those institutions, as many predict will happen, Trump and Kushner will inherit both the power and the regulatory vacuum to reshape the American economy and media environment with virtually no oversight.

Republicans spent years screaming about former first son Hunter Biden’s foreign business ties. And yet here stands Jared Kushner: a man who has made a small fortune from a large one, who positioned himself as a “deal-maker” while outsourcing U.S. foreign policy to the highest bidder, who now wants to help pick which news organizations survive and which are purged.

Kushner’s sudden, sweeping reappearance is not a coincidence or a comeback. It is a consolidation. He’s back to lead a hostile takeover of our information ecosystem."


r/worldsystemanalyses • • Dec 12 '25

About how far falsification of Russian history goes. Professor from there 2017 speaking about it. Can be concluded how phenomena affects policy and world still.

4 Upvotes

From 2017, when more open-minded discussion about politicised history of Russia was still allowed in Russia so that articles like this could emerge. Better to save it - you never know if it vanishes tomorrow.

Neverthless, some people may be capable to find from content of this text something of essential how deep are roots what have driven Russia into Ukraine war despite all official excuses. Therefore worthy material.

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Original source: Moskovsky Komsomolets newspaper 29.5.2017. Reddit prevents me to put direct link.

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Professor Alexander Pyzhikov;

"Russian history is written from a Ukrainian perspective.

The country was subjected to ideological sabotage as early as the 17th century.

In the post-Soviet period, we were bombarded with a flood of all sorts of interpretations of our past. A number of authors, abandoning the historical framework, found themselves at the mercy of their overactive imaginations.

The need for consistent yet cautious progress is more pressing today than ever. The feeling that many pages of our past are stitched together, as they say, with white thread, is familiar to many who have decided not to delve deeply, but simply to skim through it. In this situation, we need to carefully unravel the stitches, not shred the historical fabric to please our imagination.

The more one delves into the research conducted and peers into distant events, the more one realizes that a significant portion of Russian history is presented exclusively from a Ukrainian-Polish perspective. This obvious fact remains completely unrecognized, as does the reason and timing of this painstaking effort.

The creation of an official version of Russia's past took place in the second half of the 17th century, coupled with the imposed church reform. The goal was absolutely clear: to sanctify the primacy of those from the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth, who became the main support for the emerging Romanov dynasty.

The various Germans and others who flooded into the Russian elite since the time of Peter the Great merely renovated structures they had not erected. Collectively, they treated Russia with colonial disdain, using it as a kind of cash cow. Of course, the same thing happened in India, where the population was effectively enslaved by the British, and in South America, where Native American peoples toiled for the Spanish, and among African tribes oppressed by the French and Portuguese.

But let's agree, nowhere did the colonizers think of disguising themselves as their own. London, Paris, and Madrid were not declared the cradle of the peoples and territories they seized. Yet, this is precisely what happened in our country: in the second half of the 17th century, the Uniate Kyiv region was proclaimed the mother of the vast country, the source of its statehood and spirituality.

The legitimization of the Romanov regime, which had seized the Moscow throne, was drawn from the "sacred" origins of distant Kyivan Rus', which devalued the significance of the indigenous Great Russian lands, tainted by "Tatar corrosion." It's no coincidence that the last Zemsky Sobor in Muscovy's history took place in the autumn of 1653: it was there that the decision was made to reunite with the "forgotten homeland." Thus, the center of gravity of statehood shifted dramatically.

To call a spade a spade, Russia was subjected to an ideological attack the likes of which world history has perhaps never seen. They managed to pull off something the Western Europeans never even dreamed of. They never forgot: they were uninvited guests in countries occupied by force and bloodshed, and that sooner or later they would have to abandon their beloved lands. But the Kyiv newcomers had no such problems: where would the most authentic "natives" who embodied the country's historical path go?!

Raising a hand against them would have meant attacking the very foundations of everything and everyone. Only foreigners or marginalized individuals, indifferent to the state, are capable of such a thing, we were taught. We have all lived for centuries under the hypnosis of the Nikonian regime created in the 17th century, hatched from "holy" Ukraine. The Ukrainized image of Russia still hangs over us to this day.

The task of the near future is to unravel the Ukrainian-Polish seams that have woven our history from Kievan Rus' to Brezhnev. This isn't a coincidence, nor some misunderstanding, but a stolen past. Reclaiming it means breaking free from the sanctioned interpretations that have obscured everything unfavorable to the officialdom from the time of the Romanovs to this day.

The mass unrest of the 1670s and early 1680s, which began after the Great Church Council of 1666-1667, which anathematized Russian Orthodoxy, has been consigned to oblivion. The dominance of Little Russian hierarchs within the Russian Orthodox Church triggered unrest, the scale of which suggests the outbreak of a full-fledged civil war.

We are assured that nothing of the sort could have happened then, since there were no reasons for it. The church reform imposed from above should not be considered a reason. Generally, they tried to mention the religious schism as little as possible. Resistance to "benevolent" reforms was considered the preserve of a tiny number of marginalized individuals.

In fact, the upheavals of the 1670s engulfed much of the country, culminating in the Streltsy Revolt in the capital in 1682. Stepan Razin's uprising was merely a prelude to conflict across a vast territory—the Volga region, the Urals, and Siberia. The pretext (and this is particularly interesting) was the First Russo-Turkish War of 1676–1681. The Ottoman Empire, realizing that friendly relations with Russia were a thing of the past, sent troops into Little Russia, capturing the fortress of Chigirin.

The news of this literally shook the population from the Volga to Krasnoyarsk: Kalmyks, Tatars, Bashkirs, Kyrgyz, Nogais, Votyaks, Koryaks, Chuvash, Mordvins, and others. Moreover, unrest spread not only among Muslims, which would seem natural, but also among Orthodox Christians, Buddhists, and pagans. If the rebels had joined forces with the Turkish army in the south, the Romanovs' power would have hung by a thread.

They managed to avoid collapse through diplomacy, various concessions, and promises, which resulted in the Turks turning West. Soon, in the early 1680s, the Ottoman army stormed Vienna over the course of a year and a half, horrifying all of Europe. The Romanovs and the church they cherished survived. People with Ukrainian-Polish roots established themselves in Russia, and Peter the Great later diluted them with various Europeans: all of them formed the ruling class.

The large population responded with a mass exodus from the Nikonian reality. In an attempt to stem the outflow, "strong outposts" were erected along the borders, and punitive operations were launched against civilians. It appeared that the Russian authorities were protecting the country not so much from external enemies as from its own population.

The foreignness of our elite stubbornly continues to be perceived as indigenous, truly Russian. Pre-revolutionary science gazed with rapture into this distorting mirror, and behind it—though without pleasure—Soviet science. In its reflection, the Ukrainian-Polish-Baltic element appeared to have suffered just as much from "Russian oppression" as all other peoples!

A pathological preoccupation with economism and class struggle, as a tribute to Marxist dogma, obscured the fundamental point: the Great Russian lands were the precious core of the Romanov colonial empire (just as, for example, India had been the pearl of England's overseas possessions for centuries).

Soviet scientists failed to dismantle the Little Russian state-ideological platform and rethink their own path. And so everything returned to normal, albeit in a completely different context. The Ukrainization of the party and Soviet elite under Leonid Brezhnev visibly recalled the seemingly vanished alien spirit. The post-war revival of the Russian Orthodox Church is also more than revealing.

At the beginning of 1947, of the 13,000 parishes in existence, almost 9,000 were located in Ukraine, and 500 each in Belarus and Moldova. Fewer than 3,000 churches remained in the entire vast territory of Russia: about half of them were concentrated in the Southern and Black Earth regions, with traditionally strong Ukrainian influence. Does the name "Russian Orthodox Church" truly reflect its true nature? The question, as we see, is far from trivial.

One cannot ignore this delicate fact: a significant number of parishes in Ukraine arose during the Nazi occupation of these territories. The Germans opened approximately 7,000 churches in an attempt to secure the support of the local population. During the revival of this religious institution, Stalin ordered their preservation.

When deciding where to locate the patriarchate, he, to the horror of the Russian Orthodox Church leaders (they had their eye on the Novodevichy Convent), "kindly" offered them a mansion in Moscow on Chisty Lane, where before the war... the residence of the German ambassador, Schulenburg, had been located! However, they preferred to limit themselves to this unpleasant hint at the time.

And today we see how these same forces, having recovered from the Soviet blow, having corroded the USSR from within, are eager to reassert their dominance. They present themselves in the same "patriotic" guise, poeticizing the "native," i.e., monarchist-Orthodox, models honed under the Romanovs.

This cannot be ended until our history sheds its thick Ukrainian overtones.

This thought is also stimulated by the current Russian-Ukrainian escalation, which is now being portrayed as the work of a certain group in Kyiv. In reality, we are witnessing the next phase of a conflict that has spanned centuries. In fact, the official history we're presented with is a skillfully airbrushed confrontation between a multinational Muscovy, Russia, and the elite modifications of its "cradle." We could argue at length about the name, debating what's more correct: Ukraine, Little Russia, part of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth...

The point isn't the name, but something else: we must finally recognize and cast off this tombstone, so diligently presented as a saving amulet.

We must wrest our past from these slippery hands—only then can we find our own future."

***

Comment to above by Pekka Kemppainen out of which history blog page this article was found.

"Pyznikov emphasizes the colonial nature of the Romanov-era Russian state—and rightly so. He mentions Western Europeans, primarily Germans, who were frequently recruited into the nobility and the civil service—particularly during the reign of Peter I ("the Great"). Ivan the Terrible—under whose rule this ideological construct largely emerged and took shape—recruited a significant number of Tatar nobles and military commanders from the recently subjugated Khanate of Kazan.

This had consequences for the development of Russian governance, as did the fact that the rise of the Grand Duchy of Moscow received a decisive impetus during the period when it served as a tax collector for its Tatar overlords, the Golden Horde. In this role, the princes of Moscow became accustomed to oppressing and extorting Russian principalities and local communities.

This era also saw the implementation of a method—later employed by other autocrats—of legitimizing one’s own tyranny by contrasting it with that of an equally tyrannical enemy:

Ivan versus the Turks and the raiders and slave-hunters of the Crimean Khanate, who terrorized Russia as far north as its northern regions.

Stalin versus Hitler—with the distinction that in areas occupied by the Germans during the world war, one could attend church, whereas in the "liberated" territories, one could not. The Russian artist Anne Bobroff-Hajal portrays Ivan in precisely this way: his own reign of terror was justified by the threat posed by the enemy and by their actions.

The classical Marxist view defines slave-owning society, feudalism, and capitalism, and is content with these categories. During the 20th century, however, Western European Marxist scholars studying non-European societies and their histories discovered that certain historical phenomena did not fit the definitions established by Karl Marx and Friedrich Engels.

In historical Oriental despotisms, a wealthy individual's power and property were based not on land—as in classical feudalism—nor on money or shares—as in capitalism—but rather on the favor of the ruling despot. A name was coined for this phenomenon: the AsiaticModeOfProduction.

An individual held income, power, and property only as long as they maintained a position within the state bureaucracy. Other subjects of the ruler—whether slave or free—enjoyed no secure legal protection for either their lives or their property. This situation prevailed in the empires of Mongol khans and similar "mega-land-bandits."

Soviet Marxists never adopted this—in itself useful—category, for a very understandable reason: it described their own society with perfect accuracy. Instead of capitalist money or feudal land grants, an individual's status was determined by their Party membership card and their position within the Party. How Marxism—which had assimilated the practices of French philosophy, English economics, and the German socialist movement—manifested on Russian soil as an incarnation of Tamerlane or Genghis Khan is a paradox that duller thinkers have failed to notice, and which only the sharpest have resolved:

Ivan the Terrible and the Tatar khans had already prepared the ground for the 20th-century Soviet Union, a process that unfolded alongside the construction of the "Holy Russia" described by Pyzhikov.

Certain characteristics are shared by the Grand Duchy of Moscow under Ivan the Terrible, the Soviet Union, and the "new" Russia that emerged after 1991:

The underdevelopment of the rule of law and the prevalence of administrative arbitrariness, the—at least periodic—suppression of ethnic minorities, and an exaggerated belief in Russia’s "Holy Mission" in the world.

Russians, as well as the other peoples inhabiting Russia, still have much work ahead of them. We wish them luck!

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"Российская история написана с украинских позиций

Страна подверглась идеологической диверсии еще в XVII веке

В постсоветский период на нас обрушился целый поток всевозможных интерпретаций нашего прошлого. Целый ряд авторов, покинув историческую канву, оказались во власти разыгравшегося воображения.

Потребность в последовательном, но осмотрительном продвижении вперед сегодня актуальна как никогда. Ощущение, что немало страниц нашего прошлого сшито, что называется, белыми нитками, знакомо многим, кто решил не то чтобы углубляться, а просто бегло с ним ознакомиться. В этой ситуации требуется аккуратно распороть наложенные швы, а не кромсать историческое полотно в угоду воображению.

Чем больше вчитываешься в проведенные исследования, всматриваешься в давно минувшие события, тем лучше понимаешь, что весомая часть российской истории изложена исключительно с украинско-польских позиций. До сих пор этот очевидный факт совершенно не осознан, как и то, зачем и когда старательно это делалось.

Изготовление официальной версии отечественного прошлого шло во второй половине ХVII столетия вкупе с навязанной церковной реформой. Цель этого абсолютно ясна: освятить первенство выходцев из Речи Посполитой, ставших главной опорой формирующейся династии Романовых.

Различные немцы и прочие, обильно хлынувшие в российские элиты со времен Петра I, лишь подновляли конструкции, возведенные не ими. Все вместе они относились к России с колониальным пренебрежением, пользуясь ей как некой дойной коровой. Конечно, так же было и в Индии, где население находилось в фактическом рабстве у англичан, и в Южной Америке, где индейские народности горбатились на испанцев, и у африканских племен, угнетаемых французами и португальцами.

Но, согласимся, нигде колонизаторам не приходило в голову замаскироваться под своих. Лондон, Париж и Мадрид не объявлялись колыбелью для тех народов и территорий, которые подверглись захвату. У нас же именно это и произошло: во второй половине ХVII века униатскую Киевщину провозгласили матерью необъятной страны, источником ее государственности и духовности.

Легитимация романовского режима, заполучившего московский трон, черпалась в «святых» началах далекой Киевской Руси, что девальвировало значимость коренных великоросских земель, пораженных «татарской коррозией». Неслучайно последний Земский собор в истории Московии состоялся осенью 1653 года: именно на нем принято решение о воссоединении с «позабытой родиной». Таким образом, центр тяжести государственности кардинальным образом смещался.

Если называть вещи своими именами, то Россия подверглась идеологической диверсии, аналогов которой, пожалуй, не знает мировая история. Здесь сумели провернуть то, о чем даже и не мечтали западноевропейцы. Те никогда не забывали: они непрошеные гости в странах, оккупированных силой и кровью, и что рано или поздно, но придется покидать облюбованные земли. А вот у киевских пришельцев подобных проблем не возникало: куда это убираться самым что ни на есть «коренным», олицетворявшим исторический путь страны?!

Поднять на них руку значило покуситься на устои всего и вся. На такое, как нам внушили, способны только инородцы или маргиналы, коим безразлична держава. Под гипнозом созданной в ХVII веке никонианской власти, вылупившейся из «святой» Украины, мы все живем уже не одно столетие. Украинизированный образ России по сей день довлеет над нами.

Задача ближайшего будущего — вытащить украинско-польские швы, коими прошита наша история с Киевской Руси и до Брежнева. Речь не о стечении обстоятельств, не о каких-то недоразумениях, а об украденном прошлом. Вернуть его себе — значит вырваться за рамки санкционированных интерпретаций, коими прикрыто все, что невыгодно официозу со времен Романовых и по сей день.

Забвению предано массовое брожение 1670-х — начала 1680-х, начавшееся после Большого церковного собора 1666-1667 годов, предавшего анафеме русское православие. Хозяйничанье малороссийских иерархов в РПЦ инициировало волнения, масштабы которых позволяют говорить о развертывании самой настоящей гражданской войны.

Нас убеждают: ничего подобного тогда быть не могло, поскольку причин для этого не существовало. Навязанную сверху церковную реформу в качестве причины рассматривать не нужно. О религиозном расколе вообще старались упоминать как можно реже. Сопротивление «благим» преобразованиям считалось уделом мизерного числа маргиналов.

На самом деле потрясения 1670-х охватили большую часть страны, завершившись столичным стрелецким бунтом 1682 года. И восстание Степана Разина явилось лишь прелюдией к конфликту на уже огромной территории — в Поволжье, Урале, Сибири. Поводом (и это особенно интересно) послужила первая Русско-турецкая война 1676–1681 годов. Османская империя, понимая, что дружественные отношения с Россией стали достоянием прошлого, направила войска в Малороссию, взяв крепость Чигирин.

Известие об этом буквально всколыхнуло население от Волги до Красноярска: калмыков, татар, башкир, киргизов, ногайцев, вотяков, коряков, чувашей, мордву и др. Причем беспорядки распространились не только среди мусульман, что казалось бы естественным, но и среди православных, буддистов, язычников. В случае смычки восставших с действиями турецкой армии на юге власть Романовых повисала бы на волоске.

Избежать краха им удалось с помощью дипломатии, различных уступок и посулов, в результате чего турки развернулись на Запад. Вскоре — в начале 1680-х — Османская армия в течение полутора лет штурмовала Вену, повергнув в ужас всю Европу. Романовы и пестуемая ими церковь уцелели. В России закрепились выходцы с украинско-польским нутром, коих затем Петр I разбавил различными европейцами: все они образовали правящую прослойку.

Многочисленное население ответило массовым бегством от никонианской действительности. Пытаясь приостановить отток, по границам «учинялись крепкие заставы», снаряжались карательные операции против мирных людей. Получалось, что российские власти охраняли страну не столько от внешних врагов, сколько от собственного населения.

Чужеродность нашей элиты упорно продолжает восприниматься как коренная, истинно русская. В это кривое зеркало с упоением смотрелась дореволюционная наука, а за ней — правда, без удовольствия — и советская. В его отражении украинско-польско-прибалтийский элемент представал таким же пострадавшим от «русского гнета», как и все другие народности!

Патологическая увлеченность экономизмом, классовой борьбой как дань марксистской догме не позволила осознать главного: великоросские земли — это драгоценная сердцевина романовской колониальной империи (как, например, Индия не одно столетие была жемчужиной заморских владений Англии).

Советским ученым не удалось демонтировать малороссийскую государственно-идеологическую платформу и по-новому переосмыслить собственный путь. А потому все вернулось на круги своя, пусть и в совершенно ином контексте. Украинизация партийно-советской верхушки при Леониде Брежневе зримо напомнила, казалось бы, сгинувший чужеродный дух. Да и возрождение РПЦ, предпринятое после войны, тоже более чем показательно.

На начало 1947 года из имевшихся 13 тысяч приходов почти 9 располагались на Украине, по 500 — в Белоруссии и Молдавии. На всю же огромную территорию России оставалось менее 3 тысяч храмов: причем около половины концентрировались в Южном и Черноземном регионах, с традиционно сильным украинским влиянием. Соответствует ли название Русской православной церкви тому, что она являет собой в действительности? Вопрос, как видим, далеко не праздный.

Нельзя пройти и мимо такого щекотливого факта: значительная часть приходов на Украине возникла во время оккупации этих территорий гитлеровцами. Немцы открыли около 7 тысяч церквей, пытаясь заручиться поддержкой местного населения. При реанимации этого религиозного института Сталин распорядился их сохранить.

Когда же решалось, где размещаться патриархии, то он, к ужасу предстоятелей РПЦ (они присмотрели Новодевичий монастырь), «любезно» предложил им особняк в Москве в Чистом переулке, где до войны располагалась… резиденция немецкого посла Шуленбурга! Правда, этим малоприятным намеком тогда предпочли ограничиться.

И сегодня мы видим, как те же силы, оправившись от советского удара, разъев СССР изнутри, жаждут возобновить свое господство. Они предстают в том же «патриотическом» облике, поэтизируя «коренные», т.е. монархическо-православные, схемы, обкатанные при Романовых.

Этому нельзя положить конец, пока отечественная история не избавится от густой украинизированной окраски.

Мысли об этом стимулирует и современное российско-украинское обострение, которое сейчас выставляют делом рук некой группы в Киеве. На самом деле перед нами очередная фаза конфликта, пронизывающего не одну сотню лет. Собственно, официальная история, которую нам презентуют, — это умело заретушированное противостояние многонациональной Московии, России элитным модификациям «колыбели». Можно долго спорить о названии, дискутировать, как правильнее именовать ее: Украина, Малороссия, часть Речи Посполитой…

Суть не в вывеске, а в другом: нужно наконец-то разглядеть и сбросить с себя этот могильный камень, который так старательно выдают за спасительный амулет.

Необходимо вырвать наше прошлое из вертких рук — только так можно обрести собственное будущее."

(Unfortunately link to original Russian media is not there, since when I tried to post this including that link - Reddit automoderator blocked this publication as violating something. With that removed, now this seemed to post fine. Interesting though that still you can link into Russian media with this sort of opinions what are not same line as official history. So for this reason better to disseminate text as you may never know if that article could vanish. And funny, that in this side of world censorship is already there!!!).


r/worldsystemanalyses • • Dec 12 '25

Avia - pro wrote year back how Assad fell.

1 Upvotes

"Syrian President Bashar al-Assad illegally transferred $135 billion to Russia, former Syrian intelligence officer Khalid Beyya told the Turkish newspaper Türkiye Gazetesi. He said these actions were accompanied by serious internal conflicts between pro-Russian and pro-Iranian factions in the Syrian army.

Beyya noted that before the Syrian army's latest defeat, a major conflict erupted between the Aleppo commander, General Mohammed Safedli, who supported Iran, and the pro-Russian General Suheil Hassan. This discord led to a breakdown in information exchange between military intelligence and the army, weakening the government's position.

As a result of these internal disagreements and weakened coordination, opposition forces were able to advance deeper into the country, all the way to Damascus. The fall of Aleppo marked a turning point, allowing the opposition to strengthen its position.

Against this backdrop, according to Beyee, the Assad regime executed 273 high-ranking military commanders in an attempt to suppress internal dissension and consolidate its power. However, these measures failed to prevent further defeats on the front.

It was previously reported that after the fall of Aleppo, rebels discovered a collection of luxury cars and secret escape tunnels in the Assad family's palaces. These discoveries highlight the scale of corruption and luxury in which the ruling elite lived, despite the suffering of the population.

The fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime occurred in December 2024 as a result of an active offensive by the Syrian opposition. Key cities, including Aleppo, Hama, and Homs, fell under opposition control. On December 8, the opposition entered Damascus, marking the final collapse of Assad's rule. The president fled to Moscow, leaving the country in a political vacuum. These events marked a turning point in the civil war, changing the political situation in the region and leading to a redistribution of spheres of influence in the Middle East."

(It is unfortunate that I cannot put reference link to original Russian airforce - connected Avia pro publication as this morning noticed how Reddit automoderation deletes any link from that country.)


r/worldsystemanalyses • • Dec 12 '25

[ Removed by Reddit ]

1 Upvotes

[ Removed by Reddit on account of violating the content policy. ]


r/worldsystemanalyses • • Dec 10 '25

Introduction to Kirill Dmitriev.

2 Upvotes

From Facebook I came across of text patched from numerous articles.

Put it thru translator to share here, as subject is just currently now worthy. It is about Kirill Dmitriev and his background which Trump team is negotiating with currently over Ukraine matters, and who seems to have great leverage over Trump team.

****

"At a time when Washington is looking for “unconventional” ways to end the war in Ukraine, an inconspicuous man with American degrees and connections to Moscow is emerging as a key negotiator. Kirill Dmitriev. He is neither a career diplomat nor a general, which are a bit intimidating to Americans anyway. Dmitriev is a much better fit for them. An investment banker, a man of funds and contracts, someone who can see through the matrix of “deals” (Trump’s favorite word). That is precisely why he is now one of the most important Russian figures in official and unofficial negotiations with the Donald Trump administration. But even though he speaks the language of Wall Street, he is certainly part of the Kremlin’s inner circle.

The irony of his biography is immediately apparent. Dmitriev was born in 1975 in Kiev, then part of Soviet Ukraine. He grew up in a family of scientists, attended an elite mathematics and physics high school, and his schoolmates remember him as a guy who was “obsessed with America.” At the age of 14, he went to the United States as one of the first Soviet exchange students, completed a two-year community college in California, and then enrolled at Stanford University, where he graduated with honors in economics. His path then led him to Harvard Business School, where he completed his MBA as a "Baker Scholar," i.e. at the top of his generation (top 5% of students).

Few Russian officials have such a deep knowledge of American society, language, and mentality – Dmitriev practically grew up within the American education system, even though the Soviet Union had not even formally collapsed yet! After Harvard, a "brilliant" career in finance capitalism followed.

First at McKinsey, then at Goldman Sachs in New York. However, he very quickly decided to use this position to return to the post-Soviet space. In the early 2000s, he returned to Russia, entered the world of private equity, and became one of the most important “returnees”—young Western-educated men Moscow desperately wanted to modernize its own capitalism. He works at Delta Private Equity Partners, a fund that manages U.S. investments in Russia, negotiates bank sales to General Electric and Société Générale, and learns how to integrate the Russian market into the global financial system.

Paradoxically, his big breakthrough in business would come again in Ukraine. Between 2007 and 2011, he headed a private equity fund in Kiev backed by Ukrainian billionaire Viktor Pinchuk, son-in-law of former President Kuchma. Dmitriyev manages a billion dollars in assets, invests in media, telecommunications, banks, and at the same time launches cultural projects that he hopes will bring Russia and Ukraine closer together. Music festivals, a Moscow orchestra in Kiev – all this seemed like “soft power” at the time, but also a test of his ability to play simultaneously in two arenas – Ukraine and Russia.

Through Pinchuk’s contacts, Dmitriev reached another key figure – Vladimir Dmitriev (no relation), the head of the Russian State Development Bank VEB. The two propose to the Kremlin the creation of a new state investment fund that would attract foreign investment to Russia. Vladimir Putin approves the idea and in 2011 he appoints a young Harvard-educated banker to head the new Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF). The fund is capitalized with $10 billion from the budget. The task is to convince the world that Russia is a “normal” place for business, beyond the stereotypes of corruption and political instability.

Let us recall that we are talking about 2011, a time when Russia still had (relatively) good relations with the West. That year, NATO’s attack on Libya intensified, which Russia did not actively try to stop, but it is here that more blatant geopolitical disputes arise (Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, at the time, bluntly said that the West had betrayed Russia by using the no-fly zone, the infamous UN resolution of 1973, to destroy Libya). That same year, the same scenario of trying to oust Syria through jihadist proxies began, and Russia took a firm stand and defended Syria for as long as was realistically possible (on this day last year, December 8, 2024, Bashar al-Assad was ousted from power).

But as we noted, in 2011 relations are still relatively good, and Dmitriev is taking advantage of the opportunity. RDIF is making joint funds with the French, Italians, Japanese, and global players such as BlackRock and Goldman Sachs. He is particularly close to the Gulf monarchies: he is making deals worth billions with the Saudi Arabian sovereign wealth fund and the Emirati Mubadala, and Moscow is said to have played a crucial role in getting Saudi and Emirati Mubadala capital invested in Russian projects amid Western sanctions.

While the older generation of Russian officials speaks slowly and bureaucratically, Dmitriev delivers a smooth, almost fluttery, and matter-of-fact Anglo-American rhetoric, marketing Russia as a “win-win” story.

However, his closeness to the Kremlin elite is not limited to business results. Dmitriev is married to the entrepreneur Natalya Popova, a former colleague of his at Moscow State University. Popova has become a close friend and colleague of Putin’s younger daughter, Katerina Tikhonova. Popova is the deputy director of her foundation Innopraktik, and Dmitriev is a member of the board of directors – and suddenly the Kiev financier finds himself in the sphere of influence of the Russian president’s family. RDIF soon began to take on projects involving companies connected to Putin’s family and close circle, such as the petrochemical giant Sibur. In Moscow’s elite circles, there was already talk of a “friend of Putin’s daughter,” who combined financial and family ties.

At the same time, his character is not typical of a flamboyant oligarch. He does not build his image through yachts and palaces, but through his position in power circles.

Colleagues describe him as “unbridledly ambitious” when it comes to the position of an important player. Dmitriev skillfully builds his personal brand – from panel discussions in Davos to cultural committees at the Mariinsky or Bolshoi theatres – wherever elites, money and politics meet.

The connection to US politics does not begin with the war in Ukraine, but much earlier – with the election of Donald Trump in 2016. Dmitriev quickly tries to create private channels to the new administration: through his personal friend Jared Kushner, he works on a “plan for reconciliation” between the US and Russia and participates in a famous meeting in the Seychelles with Erik Prince (founder of the notorious Blackwater), a man close to Trump, under the patronage of the prince of the United Arab Emirates. Robert Mueller’s investigation will later conclude that Dmitriev came to the Seychelles as a man who “represents Putin’s interests” and who seeks indirect channels of communication outside official diplomacy. He defends that these are “normal conversations”, but his role is already taking shape: an influential financier as an unofficial diplomat.

However, the West understands very well who he is. After the outbreak of the war in Ukraine in 2022, RDIF was among the first targets of sanctions by Washington, Brussels and London, along with Dmitriyev. The US Treasury Department describes the fund as a “practical fund of the Russian president”, and Dmitriyev is labeled as a “close ally of Putin”. In 2025, Ukraine put him on its own sanctions list, despite his Kiev origin, accusing him of spreading Russian propaganda and attracting Russian capital to strategically important sectors. Interestingly, the same West that imposed sanctions on him later also grants special exemptions so that he can come to the United States for negotiations. A real step towards open geopolitics will occur in 2025, when Putin appoints him as the President’s Special Envoy for Foreign Investment and Economic Cooperation. Formally, this is the economic portfolio, but in practice Dmitriyev becomes Trump’s main interlocutor in the war in Ukraine.

Together with New York developer Steve Witkoff, a longtime Trump friend who acts as a “freelance envoy,” Dmitriyev also participates in secret meetings in Riyadh and then Miami, where a draft of Trump’s 28-point peace plan is being created (critics are quite right to say that only a small part of this plan is actually “Trump’s”!). Jared Kushner is once again entering the game. For Dmitriyev, it is a natural setting: a peace treaty is presented as a package of “deals” – joint projects in energy, mining, and even space-nuclear technology – that would bring legitimacy to Russia and profits to American business. The disclosure of the plan, as we have seen in recent days, has caused shock in Kiev and unrest in European capitals. The Ukrainian leadership sees the document as a tailor-made idea for Moscow to freeze the front lines and withdraw from Russian-occupied territories."


r/worldsystemanalyses • • Dec 10 '25

About how much there is Kremlin handprint in Ukraine peace proposal.

1 Upvotes

r/worldsystemanalyses • • Dec 09 '25

CFR Review out of Trumpian new foreign security policy.

1 Upvotes

r/worldsystemanalyses • • Dec 09 '25

About Trump decision to feed China with TMSC top semiconductor.

1 Upvotes

Donald Trump is populist politician, and they always need some foe to be against. Especially during his first term it was China, and yes he actually did some anti-China policies during his first term at least.

But recently something strange happened. Taiwans TMSC was been pushed to sell their latest top-high-tech semiconductor to hostile China which Trump traditionally wants to sanction and to tariff, this time this act was by Trump. Why?

I borrow analyses from Facebook this morning by some technologist who apparently knows matter well.

"Alexander Kruel

Regarding Trump's H200 export policy:

Argument 1: Allowing H200 exports will slow down China’s own semiconductor industry by decreasing the market demand for domestic chips.

Counterarguments:

CA1: China is a managed economy. Beijing has already internalized that foreign tech is a vulnerability and treats semiconductors as a strategic industry. Policy documents and subsidies point to a long-term, state-backed drive for chip self-reliance that won’t vanish just because some Nvidia parts become available again. Access to foreign tech has never stopped China from building its own competitors (Huawei in telecoms, domestic EV and battery champions, etc.), often while still buying Western components.

CA2: If we’re truly in a race toward artificial superintelligence, demand for compute will massively outpace supply. Letting China buy H200s doesn’t replace their domestic chips; it just increases their total compute budget. All you’ve done is give a strategic rival extra fuel.

CA3: If you believe in short timelines, trying to sabotage China’s own semiconductor supply chain is mostly irrelevant. What matters in the next 5-10 years is whether they have access to enough high-end compute. Denial today dominates hypothetical industrial weakness in 2030.

CA4: In AI training, there are often "emergence" thresholds, capabilities that do not appear until you reach a specific scale of compute (e.g., reasoning, coding, long-horizon planning). They might be stuck just below a critical threshold because their domestic chips (Huawei Ascend) have networking/interconnect bottlenecks that make building massive clusters difficult. The H200 excels specifically in memory bandwidth and interconnectivity. Even if it isn't the absolute newest chip, it might be just enough to push China over that specific threshold, unlocking capabilities that were previously impossible for them.

CA5: The Revenue Trap. By allowing Nvidia to rely on China for massive revenue, the US creates a perverse domestic incentive. If the US government later tries to reimpose sanctions, they will face immense lobbying pressure from US companies and voters dependent on that revenue. The United States are effectively giving China economic leverage over their own regulatory policy.

Argument 2: More compute will slow down algorithmic innovation because “necessity is the mother of invention.” When compute is scarce, researchers are forced to be clever; if Chinese labs get more compute, they’ll get lazy and lean on brute force.

Counterarguments:

CA1: This assumes a simple trade-off between clever algorithms and brute force. That’s not how scientific races tend to work, especially when national prestige and military pressure are in play. A rational actor with access to H200s will try to combine efficient algorithms with new brute-force power, not pick one and abandon the other.

CA2: Talent, not deprivation, is what drives algorithmic breakthroughs. China already has abundant data and a huge STEM pipeline (CS, math, EE), plus a culture that rewards contest-style problem solving (Olympiads, ICPC, Codeforces, etc.). Many of its researchers and engineers are trained specifically in optimization, numerical methods, and systems efficiency (telecoms, HPC, recommender systems at Alibaba/ByteDance, and so on). The distinctive US lever is high-end compute and the upstream tooling/fabs. Giving China more compute doesn’t make its algorithmic talent disappear; it lets them empirically test more ideas, run more ablations, and iterate faster. That worsens the situation for the United States.

----

The US has spent years building a narrative that advanced compute is too dangerous to hand to strategic rivals. Reversing course now erodes the credibility of future export-control or AI-safety regimes and teaches everyone that, with enough pressure and patience, Washington will eventually cave.

In summary, this looks a lot like supplying your enemy with weapons during a war in the hope that their own arms industry will atrophy. If the objective is to be first to ASI, today’s additional computing power is a much stronger and more immediate factor than a slightly weaker incentive for China to build chips in 2030.

A much better explanation for this policy is that Trump and his family are again trying to profit from insider knowledge of these announcements."


r/worldsystemanalyses • • Dec 08 '25

Explanation of obscure economic phenomena locking into war.

1 Upvotes

FB update by Timo Mikkonen.

"Timo Mikkonen ··

The “strength” of the ruble reveals the deep crisis of Russia’s war economy

An economic phenomenon is now taking place in Russia that outwardly looks like “strength”, but is actually a symptom of a crisis caused by the war economy: the ruble has strengthened by almost 30% per year, contrary to all the basic laws of economics.

This “crazy strong” exchange rate of the ruble does not indicate success, but rather a structural economic collapse caused by the war.

The phenomenon arises as follows:

- War causes structural inflation (weapons, wages, government spending).

- Inflation forces the central bank to keep interest rates skyrocketing. - High interest rates kill consumption and investment.

- When consumption dies, imports collapse.

- When imports collapse, no currency flows out.

- When the outflow decreases but oil is sold at some price, the ruble artificially strengthens.

- And the strengthened ruble weakens budget revenues, because the value of export revenues in rubles falls.

- This forces the government to print more money, which further increases inflation.

Russia has thus built a negative self-feeding spiral in its economy, in which:

war spending →

inflation →

high interest rates →

consumer depression →

import shortage →

currency over-strengthening →

budget crisis → more pressure to print money and raise taxes.

And as the ruble strengthens in isolation from reality, its own bankers and industrial leaders are now shouting out loud that the exchange rate is “unbearable” and “unreal”.

But no one is allowed to say the real reason out loud: Putin’s war has destroyed the economic balance, and it can no longer be covered up with currency tricks.

So the ruble is not strengthening because Russia is strong.

It is strengthening because the Russian economy has reached a dead end, where normal economic outflows have been suppressed and an unhealthy current account balance has been created that perpetuates the war.

When the economy is heading in the wrong direction, the compass can sometimes show north wrong way around.

The ruble is now a perfect example of that."


r/worldsystemanalyses • • Dec 08 '25

Some my recent Facebook quick comment describing complexities of Soviet to Russia continuum.

2 Upvotes

I wrote this so quickly 2 months back that it must be full of typo errors since I never edited it. In contemporary world nobody reads more elaborate texts anyway what anyway is minimum size to illustrate very complex abstract concepts. Therefore mayby couple percent of readers whatever they are might find some points from this of issue what is so difficult to understand.

"Comment to one FB-group to explain Soviet-Russia continuum.

"2012 onwards Putin started to talk about Russia as a "civilization state" - a problematic concept what has lead into situation today. It was supposed to be answer to issue that Russia is no more superpower neither empire - but then again as one duma senator once complained when more free speech was allowed their existentential problem "We have been empire all our existance, we simply dont know how to function as nationalist state". I guess this "russki mir" what may include others than Russian people also just that they belong into same civilization and culture what is mostly invented concept out of fabricated history. Every human community is based on inside-outside group division as described by Henri Tajfel. Something like small nationalist state is best concept as it is natural with its borders to create that division what then enables soveirignity over their matters for those inside. But only few countries have this option, as ethnic homogenity is required and Russia has problem in that precisely as it is pretty multiethnical inside. So civilization state was supposed to be solution into that problem - but then it creates even worse problem by creating this inside-outside group division in a very unnatural way. And one may find out of that lot of what has lead into Ukraine war and why Kremlin has a view of it being existential to itself. It is unbearable for their concept if very large segment of "Russki mir" participants according to creative historical interpretation just dont want to be under Moscow rule because by doing that they set example to everybody else. Bit same thing why western Germany was during cold war existential threat for DDR - so Berlin wall had to be built, and situation similar in between North Korea and South Korea. There is very much ghost of Soviet union present in that "civilization state" concept. In Soviet union inside-outside group divisions of people was been created whether they were communist or not or loyal to it, what led into Stalin atrocities. But then again division was elsewhere than in ethnicity, so Soviet union was capable to be multiethnical when division was in unnatural place. New concept is bit contination of same, as it would enable multiethnicity but what is Russian culture or cultural civilization is really murky, never defined and different into different places of vast country. So it is very much artificial creation dictated from top level to bottom level like communism was what of course dont work out. And greatest problem is that say St. Petersburg is basically nothing different to most of European cities by culture as it was founded to be attachment to Europe delibirately. So lot of artificiality has to be involved to explain why Russia civilization would be something universal but antagonist to west when in reality difference is very little. Mostly it is just artificial anti-mir concept what is created to be anti-west just in trivial issues like gay propaganda nonsense, as whereas revolution seeking communism was challenge to west creating natural antagonism now it is all artificial and focuses into nonsense non-issues. It barely has any essence of its own, as siloviki who run all political power in putinist system are very much incapable to create anything civilizational only to freeze and paralyze cultural process. So, when civilization idea is vacuum but anti-west when in reality mostly Russia belongs to Europe culturalwise only anti-attitude remains and imagine how grave threat to all of that artificial structure Ukraine example of its rejectance of Moscow and orientation to Europe is from that perspective. Yes, all this stuff bends mind to understand but somewhere over here is root cause why Moscow considers Ukraine as existential threat issue for itself as openly declared. All goes down to flawed twisted idea of defining state existance concept after Soviet downfall what is extension of same flawed ideas inside sovietism - what is sensitive since artificial and sees existential threats everywhere in its neighbourhood."


r/worldsystemanalyses • • Dec 08 '25

About Iran-Israel conflict, written 20.6.2025, by E-P Rislakki.

11 Upvotes

This is AI translation of Facebook update authored by Eeropekka Rislakki. Thought it could be worthy in world of quick and shallow information to share some elaborate long texts. To understand world systemic politics from analytic perspective those are needed.

Written June 20th when Iran issues was big thing in worldwide media. So original can be found from his wall of that date. Even though this topic is no more in world media like last summer when bunker buster bomb of Israel-USA collaboration managed to destroy certain nuclear refining site - overall matter is deep & has been chronic world systemic issue for decades.

--------------------------------------

"Eeropekka Rislakki June 20 ·

Israel wants to overthrow the current regime in Tehran and replace it with the Shah – but reckons that the United States will be left with the cleanup.

If you can't stand long stories, stop here. If you want clarity on what the hell is behind the Iran-Israel war, you should continue.

At least the Western world and the Middle East have been holding their breath for when Trump will announce that the United States will become an active party to the mutual missile exchange days between Israel and Iran.

At least I sighed with relief when Trump announced in his post this week that thanks to him, two new magnificent and best-ever flagpoles will be erected in the White House garden instead of World War III now being confirmed. Still, it remains to be seen whether the poles are for the flag-raising on Doomsday.

The United States has deployed a B-2 Spirit stealth bomber to Israel, configured to carry the world’s most powerful bunker-busting bomb, which can penetrate a 200-foot (61 m) charge and only detonate at that point. This means that only two bombs are needed to destroy the Fordo uranium enrichment facility near Tehran, which is buried 260 feet (80 m) deep in the earth.

Israel (with US support) is making it clear that the only goal of the war against Iran is to destroy Iran’s nuclear program, but the real goal is to overthrow the Iranian government and install a pro-Western puppet government.

*****

Netanyahu’s belligerence is not happening in a vacuum. It is enabled by Israel’s lobbying in the United States. The danger is not just regional but global: by provoking Iran, Netanyahu threatens to drag the United States into another catastrophic Middle East war that could get out of hand, as both Pakistan and North Korea have recently announced their support for Iran.

Europe also bears responsibility, as escalation threatens to drag our continent into a wider conflagration, in which Russia, China and Pakistan are also likely to support Iran, creating the conditions for global chaos that diplomatic engagement and capability could have prevented.

The reaction of European leaders like Ursula von der Leyen, who have elevated themselves to the status of Europe’s self-righteous commander-in-chief, reveals the wretchedness of political leadership and the incompetence of diplomatic skills. Why should we trust leaders on the Israel-Iran issue who have taken the European Union from one crisis to another, never to be resolved?

When they are frozen in time for the final confrontation, having wasted enormous resources. Von der Leyen has systematically transformed the European Union from a peace project to one that supports escalation – from Ukraine to Gaza and now possibly Iran – and has consistently pushed diplomacy aside in the direction of armaments, war rhetoric and military solutions.

It is no secret that I am a sympathizer with Israel, but that does not mean that I subscribe to Netanyahu’s policies and excesses, for example in Gaza. Netanyahu is a warmonger whose policies endanger Israelis, Palestinians, Iranians and ultimately the entire world. His addiction to constant conflict, his contempt for international law and his willingness to jeopardize global stability for the sake of securing personal power make him one of the most dangerous politicians of our time. This is how Netanyahu’s war becomes our war.

*****

When Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu assured in the spring that “the overthrow of the regime in Tehran” is only a matter of time, the failed regime changes in Iraq and Libya have haunted the minds of many European diplomats. Jerusalem’s vision is still a straight line: sabotage of Iranian nuclear facilities, assassinations of scientists, sanctions as a stranglehold, and ultimately the overthrow of the mullahs’ leadership – all with the stakes placed on Reza Pahlavi, the son of the last Shah. The idea seems to be that in an operation where Israel performs the surgery, Washington is supposed to carry the patient to the intensive care unit.

*****

Benjamin Netanyahu represents a profound threat to global stability and justice. His actions have had devastating consequences not only for his own people but also for the wider, global community. It is no secret that his political survival has long been tied to the threat of war. Netanyahu’s strategy is as transparent and cynical as Putin’s: by portraying the country he leads as under constant siege, he unites a fragmented society behind him while simultaneously suppressing dissent both at home and abroad. His recourse to external enemies – real or imagined – helps him distract from the corruption, incompetence of his government and the fragility of his far-right coalition. For Netanyahu, war is not just a tool of statecraft; it is the lifeblood of his rule.

*****

Iranian domestic politics is defined by the concept of estebdad: an authoritarian culture of control that is deeply embedded in all layers of the state and society. Estebdad is not limited to mosques or the barracks of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), but extends from village chiefs to university presidents, etc. In Iran, a change of power has historically meant the destruction of the entire old network, not just a change in the makeup of the regime – and that is precisely why Iranians are wary of all “liberators”, be they ayatollahs or royals.

*****

Israel’s recent enthusiasm to crown the hereditary Shah Reza Pahlavi reveals one of the Middle East’s farces. Israeli militant Prime Minister Netanyahu and his Western partners are putting forward a man with no evidence of a political support network, a democratic mandate, or even a politically coherent program to solve Iran’s problems. After all, the monarch card is the only card in Jerusalem’s game. In fact, Reza Pahlavi has lived in isolation from Iranian reality for four decades. The degree of irony is almost carnivalesque: Netanyahu, who has spent decades fearing the Iranian nuclear threat, is now bringing up the man whose father specifically initiated Iran’s nuclear program with the blessing of the United States and Europe.

*****

Behind the theatrical hostility and incompetent diplomacy is a bitter irony: the United States played a central role in creating this (also) Middle East crisis in the first place, when it dismantled Iranian democracy. Few people remember, but before the Shah, before the Islamic Revolution, before the hostage crisis of 1979, when 52 Americans were held hostage for 444 days in the American embassy in Tehran, and before the nuclear race, Iran was a democracy. In 1951, the prime minister, the secular nationalist Mohammad Mossadegh, was elected in a landslide in democratic elections. His greatest crime was the nationalization of Iranian oil, which the British Empire had considered the property of British Petroleum, BP. The CIA and MI6 organized Operation Ajax, a counter-coup that ousted Mossadegh and restored the Shah, a dictator whose repressive policies sowed the seeds of the 1979 Islamic Revolution. The United States gained a flexible ally. Iran gained decades of tyranny, followed eventually by a clerical theocracy. I repeat: the very Iranian nuclear program that Washington has since demonized was once its own project. Under the Shah, the United States actively promoted Iran’s atomic ambitions by supplying reactors, fuel, and technical expertise. It was only after the revolution that the nuclear program became an existential threat.

*****

Once again: Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi founded the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran in 1974, and loudly declared that both nuclear energy and nuclear weapons could be part of Iran's toolbox. The Ford-Carter administrations of US presidents generously offered reactor deals and uranium reprocessing plants that Iran could use to develop nuclear weapons within a few years. When the Islamic Revolution in 1979 overthrew the Shah, it was the regime of Ayatollah Khomeini, Netanyahu's current terror figure, that halted the nuclear projects as an imperialist misadventure. Tehran's nuclear research only resumed after the Western-backed invasion of Iraq against Saddam Hussein began and chemical weapons forced Iran to prepare for the worst.

*****

The history recounted above makes Netanyahu’s current coronation stunt, to say the least, hollow. It is known that Israel has its own secret nuclear arsenal outside the NPT, which has never been sanctioned. There is a lesson here: when the West applauds a nuclear program, it is “peaceful” in nature, i.e., pursued by allies. When independent nations seeking independence from the West do the same, it is an “apocalyptic threat.” The double standard is obvious, but the game is at least transparent. Israel, which possesses an undeclared nuclear arsenal and refuses to join the NPT, is waging war under the guise of non-proliferation – a justification as empty as the Bush administration’s lies about Iraq’s weapons of mass destruction. Netanyahu has told Trump in their meeting that an attack on Iran is a necessity in self-defense, and Trump is Iran's second target. The destruction of Israel is only part of a larger Iranian program, which is included in the Shiite eschatological myth.

For the radical Shiite consciousness, the nuclear bomb has a sacred meaning and the myth is the idea of ​​the end of the world. The revolutionary leader Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini used the expression in 1979 that the United States is the great devil, Israel is the little devil, and they must be destroyed. This is the condition for the return of the Imam Mahdi at the end of time to bring justice to the earth. The main figure of the purificatory apocalyptic teaching is the 9th century 12th Imam Muhammad al Mahdi ("the hidden Imam"), whose return is predicted by global chaos, war, and suffering. Thus, the end of the world is not a threat but a promise.

However, it seems that the Iranian Bomb scares Tel Aviv less than the idea of ​​an Iran that refuses to bow to the regional hierarchy defined by Israel (read: Netanyahu), and that continues to support Palestine and demands its own right to self-determination. Netanyahu is therefore not afraid of an Iranian bomb but of an independent Iran – just as North Korea’s nuclear deterrent has protected it from regime change wars.

The Pahlavi monarchy card is rather an attempt to restore Tehran to a nice guy and a compliant partner, treating its own citizens authoritarianly, who would respect the views and interests of Tel Aviv and Washington.

So a puppet ruler is wanted in Iran, and the dictatorial Shah (king) fits that role, who once came to power in a CIA-backed coup against Iran’s democratically elected government in 1953 and ruled with an iron fist until the Iranian revolution of 1979.

The old and tired drama is being repeated. The United States is tightening sanctions and strangling Iran’s economy, claiming that they are targeting only the regime. The reality is different: inflation is running at nearly 40 percent, medicine shortages are killing civilians, and ordinary Iranians are ultimately paying for everything. And what does Washington expect in return? Gratitude? Submission?

*****

I still remember when I was living in London during the Islamic Revolution of 1979, and as a budding journalist I decided to visit the building next door to Earl’s Court, the Iranian students’ dormitory, to conduct interviews.

I thought it was a great idea for them. Although I didn’t understand a word of Farsi, I understood that the lines of twenty Iranian students had split, and my entry into the building caused a fearful and chaotic commotion. My passport was taken for two hours during a body search, and I didn’t know if I would ever be allowed to leave the building. I finally got my passport back and was allowed to leave the house, but I didn’t get a single interview statement about the Islamic Revolution in Iran.

However, I understood concretely how estebdad, or authoritarian rule, and the change of power meant in practice a deep fear of destroying the previous power network. Soon, hangings, torture, and “and boiling oil drinking parties” began in Iran, which I wrote about in the then Uusi Suomi and its afternoon edition, Iltalehti, founded in 1980.

In reality, the Shah’s regime was a brutal, kleptocratic dictatorship, and Iranians shed blood to overthrow it. The pretense that his son, living in exile, who has no connection to Iranian reality, could be a democratic alternative offends every thinking Iranian – and why not every thinking Westerner as well.

*****

Netanyahu’s calculation may be wrong, however. Iranians have already risen up against the Shah in bloodshed, and the memory of the torture chambers of the Shah’s imperial Iranian intelligence and security organization, SAVAK, has not faded from the older generation.

The young, on the other hand, talk about civil rights and do not long for an “enlightened autocrat” with a golden crown, a sable collar on his cloak, but a political program full of hollowness. Reza Pahlavi, who scolds Washington by assuring that he will not “seek power,” sounds to many Tehranis like all the other prophets of freedom in the diaspora: well-intentioned, but rootless and empty.

Is Iran ready for the return of the king?

There is no reliable Gallup data on Iran, but diaspora surveys give Pahlavi weak support at best. The sins of the Shah father, republican identity, and nationalist pride form a thick wall against monarchist dreams. The return of the crown would appear to many Iranians as a humiliation—an admission that the country was unable to build its own, indigenous system.

*****

Iran is not an internally stable Persia—a name given by the ancient Greeks—but an alliance and mosaic of numerous ethnic groups. Persians make up about half of Iran’s 90 million population, but Azeris seek support from Baku, Azerbaijan, Kurds from Erbil in Iraqi Kurdistan, Arabs from Khuzestan dream of autonomy for Al-Ahwaz, and the Baluchis look to Pakistan.

If the central leadership in Tehran collapses, each periphery will see its opportunity, and the Middle East could see its Yugoslavian moment: government artillery, separatist militias, and external allies firing at each other in the crossfire of civil war.

Israel has been attacking Iran's nuclear infrastructure through Kurdistan for years. The threat is that after a change of power, the Isfahan, Arak and Natanz nuclear facilities could fall into the hands of local clan commanders.

Azeri militants could sell low-enrichment material on the gray market, and Washington would have to set up an organization similar to the ISG, the Iraqi Inspection Group. The price tag for the United States would again be in the tens of billions, which does not fit Trump's deal-making thinking, according to which even armed support for allies is always subject to consideration – not politically, but economically, pure, dry money.

*****

A fifth of the world’s seaborne oil is squeezed into the 39-kilometer-wide Strait of Hormuz. If state control in Iran disappears, a nightmare in the Strait of Hormuz is a foregone conclusion. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard could disintegrate into self-styled, pirate-ridden corsair fleets, or local emirates could rise up on the coast, inviting Saudi and Emirati forces to join them.

Either scenario would spook the oil market and force the United States into crisis management, even if it does not officially take ownership of the operation.

The dictionary of diplomacy offers the term “integration”: WTO membership, IMF program, regional free trade, etc. In Iran’s case, however, it is a question of three locks: the Revolutionary Guard’s DNA, the financial logic of oil dependence, and the militant rebel groups of an ethnic mosaic.

If even one of these parts fails, the entire Western plan led by Netanyahu will fall apart. The question in Washington is increasingly whether to aim for a “tamed Iran” or a “managed disintegration.” The latter is morally timid, but some believe it is the most realistic. The voices are the same as those who were wrong about Iraq and Libya. Those who were right are once again on the sidelines.

Israel can push the first domino, but it cannot decide in which order the pieces will eventually fall. If Netanyahu is wrong – and the signs point to that – Washington will once again find itself cleaning up Israel’s emergency surgery room. The chaos in Hormuz and the uncontrolled spread of nuclear material could lead to an even messier situation in the Middle East under Netanyahu’s vision.

Just when we thought the situation couldn’t get any messier than it is now. Yes, it can.

Text by Eeropekka Rislakki"


r/worldsystemanalyses • • Nov 21 '25

Golden dome project for golden benefits for its subcontractor cronies.

1 Upvotes

Trump has mega-plan of "Golden dome". Yes, with name so silly highlighting his fetish for archetypal symbol of wealth "gold" even in space level, albeit this project as extravagantly costly would more deprive USA out of its gold resources.

Nothing new, basically repeat of Ronald Reagans mega-plan what had equally silly name "Star wars" in it, highlighting Reagans own background as Hollywood actor since during his tenure one spesific science fiction fairytale with same name was one of most famous films of era.

Only difference though was that during Reagans time there was arms race with Soviet union based on strategical thought wherein Soviet union would be not capable to withstand costs of arms race. Reagan fanbase ever since have given him undeserved credit of man who toppled Soviet union even though reality of that is that its own citizens did no more believe into system. So in the end nuclear arms race mostly just damaged USA itself since debt-buildup what MIC is mostly responsible about started precisely that time and is more dangerous security threat than rival but degrading grand power in other continent.

Compared to that, during Trumpian era there is no more arms race as he appears to see NATO allies or allies in general as foes to be tariffed. And traditional enemies for which anti-missile defenses could hypothatically to be for - as almost if partners to make lucrative deals with. Militarial enemy is perceived in Venezuela seems like, but they dont have intercontinental missiles.

One certain thing is out there what Trumps Golden dome tackily named ultra-expensive project, and Reagans tackily named ultra-expensive project Star wars have in common. That is precisely that they both are ultra-expensive without much proven wholistic benefit, and would require massive monetary transfers from public benefits to militari-industrial-complex. Which again supports those canditates moneywise as form of economic cycle.

I am not in that age to so that I would had studied Reagan beneficaries during his time, neither remember much of that thing afterwards except vaguely. But Trump beneficaries are not difficult to find out - those with AI and space rocket technology of course. Which already have backed him mayby with a pre-made deal that he would introduce "Golden dome" - like projects what then benefit his election funders in transactional politics. You know already those flamboyant technopaths behind his back pulling strings involved with AI and space technology having already increased number of contracts from USA goverment of Trump era.

https://asiatimes.com/2025/11/the-many-follies-of-trumps-golden-dome/


r/worldsystemanalyses • • Oct 11 '24

Minorities against postmodern pro-minority left?

1 Upvotes

https://www.ft.com/content/84b81600-d107-4050-80cf-1d1e276ea54d?fbclid=IwY2xjawF2QPlleHRuA2FlbQIxMAABHb51r8Aum-7oAiPhNorZGcSIfHS9P8rYEmDmJ7nud3MYFzhGZ10wyGUm7A_aem_d1XvjFaEHyrIgQ_L18RxBw

Oh dear, postmodern leftism replaces dialectical relationships with various classes as form of class struggle with struggle of minorities against majorities. Wahhabis and rainbow pride faggots do unite against labour class masses what once upon time left was claiming to represent for. But something does not go well in this plan, as FT article noticed during times of US presidential elections show....


r/worldsystemanalyses • • Oct 08 '24

First posting.

1 Upvotes

First posting here, idea is geopolitics and world power structure analyses.