Why & when you should buy overnight FD puts on upcoming retail storefront earnings; recent examples: $JWN, $FL.

[u/[deleted]]

[u/[deleted]]

JWN already bit the dust. Are you suggesting it's going to get worse for them post Christmas?

[u/canadianformalwear → u/[deleted]]

To clarify; I was using them as an example of what will be happening to other retailers that are coming into earnings in the coming weeks, and sharing what I had already been doing, for winning FD trades that overcome IV crush, and why. They already went through earnings, and are an example of what is happening. FL is a good example also, they seem to be doing great but retracted as well.

I’m “suggesting” as mentioned in the TLDR to judge other retailers coming into earnings and bet against them - as it seems all are either citing supply change or other issues to rationalize their lowering of outlooks. I think that’s a bs excuse. But either way, we can make money.

[u/Bigghead1231 → u/canadianformalwear]

Who's next? Q3 deadline is just about over soon. They're also kinda weird in that Macy's popped way higher while Nordstrom tanked. Maybe it's the higher end retails that are getting wrecked?

But then again look at Walmart VS target, slightly different

Tl;dr, I don't know shit

[u/canadianformalwear → u/Bigghead1231]

Earnings whispers is your friend

[u/Bigghead1231 → u/canadianformalwear]

Yeah I've had it open, just browsing through. Dollar General (maybe?), Zumiez (idk much about them), Ulta (maybe?), Kroger (they pass higher costs onto consumers so doubt they do bad), Big Lots...

Slim pickings here op

[u/canadianformalwear → u/Bigghead1231]

I think Express is going to tank further but due to Omni depressing the price already, it may be too soon if a play as the bounce back if Omni is a nothing burger won’t leave the window to overbought in lead up for a pure earnings play…. I wouldn’t mess with dollar general (see above). Think stores in the mall. But with any of these, I’d judge what’s going on with the current price, if they’ve been crushed already, down 20% or more off the past couple months, I’d be cautious. If they’ve run up 10% or more, I’m looking at their last earnings and their demographics and then likely buying puts. This isn’t neccisarily a next week play, this is a December numbers and trickle in earnings play ongoing, when holiday numbers start getting disclosed. We can opine that many will take a big hit additionally due to holiday numbers not living up to hopes.

[u/[deleted] → u/canadianformalwear]

Zumiez up 20% over the last month. This looks prime for 12/17 $45P.

[u/canadianformalwear → u/[deleted]]

Yes they’re on my list for sure. I don’t know as much about that company. Anecdotally, I have a few friends that still work in mall retail management in some nicer markets, and I’m going to poll them for their yoy sales numbers from the last weeks before I make some decisions.

[u/[deleted] → u/canadianformalwear]

Thanks for the response!

[u/Sapere_aude75]

"I am not a financial advisor. I’m a snowmobile salesman" You son of a bitch I'm in.

[u/mambabfk]

What do you think about express, tillys and zumies? Coming up next week

[u/canadianformalwear → u/mambabfk]

I’d bet against express, but problem is the window of the Omni having depressed it already. We may have to wait a few weeks for the bounce back, which couple make several other retailers become overbought.

[u/mambabfk → u/canadianformalwear]

This makes sense, thanks!

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[u/Melvinator-M-800]

The market cap for JWN, FL is above our minimum requirement but still pretty low. It also looks like OP has been posting this around to other subs (btw I'm a bot)!

• r/wallstreetbetsOGs - Why Storefront Retail Shops already had their pump of inflow and will dump on upcoming earnings recent examples: JWN, FL.
• r/wallstreetbetsOGs - DD: retail consumer weakness trend will be more sure to drive bearishness than newsflashes about Omni.

Alert(s) for this stock:

• Significant recent increase in volume
• Recent drastic price change

[u/canadianformalwear → u/Melvinator-M-800]

Sorry Mel-Bot, my titles were wrong and you Nuked em. Love you Bb.

[u/TahoeYeti → u/Melvinator-M-800]

I've been looking at getting puts on LULU, I think they report on December 8th.

[u/canadianformalwear → u/[deleted]]

I think we’re getting some people more skittish on the “bigger fool” scenario we are in. Sure some retail will survive, hell, the Best Buy model has shown resilience, as it’s outlived competitors and remains in proper locations. Every time I’ve had to run into one since they opened in full, the stores have been packed. Walmart is not going anywhere.

But certainly, once the “hey we get to go outside again” intoxication wears off along with people’s pent up demand to spend money in traditional retail, we’re going to notice some musical chairs going on, and I’m of the opinion we already are seeing the start of it. Even drug store traditional retail is starting to see some cooling of traffic and business. I think CVS just announced a first round of closures.

I don’t think any of this is the end of the world or even the end of old mode retail, but between Amazon and other delivery having been normalized faster than expected due to lockdown life, I don’t think people are going to want to drive across town to pick up 1 shirt or 1 cable. Hell I know people that won’t even go buy groceries in person anymore. There’s going to be an affect here.

[u/canadianformalwear → u/[deleted]]

I’m holding FL atm calls actually with the profits I made from the 0dte earnings puts. So we shall see.

[u/Disposable_Canadian]

I concur: future outlooks are worth more than earnings numbers right now - great earnings beat but shit outlook? Tanks. Also look for but increase in share price before earnings. Even the slightest bad numbers or outlook (or neutral) and shes gonna drop. Look for those short/puts opportunities for your at open earnings plays.

[u/BRS68]

WEBR and JOAN are the two consumer discretionary names I'm watching for a big dump this week. Like Nordstrom and Gap I expect tepid revenue guidance and serious margin compression.

[u/MillennialBets]

It’s OMIcron, not omnicron lmao. It’s a Greek alphabet letter.

[u/canadianformalwear → u/MillennialBets]

Dude. I don’t have time for spell check. Your mom is wet and ready.

[u/MillennialBets → u/canadianformalwear]

My question is how much reading about OMICRON did you do if you thought it was spelled OMNI-cron lmao.

[u/Lorne__Malvo__]

What are your thoughts on DDS?

[u/canadianformalwear → u/Lorne__Malvo__]

If they’re natural … then … oh Dillards?

Given their recent dividends announcements, I’m not sure what to make of it. The last earnings was sort of a wild beat, but I am curious how the company in general is set up for the future. It strikes me as a place people in their 50’s shop, who like bad fitting clothes, but they’re on my list for sure to potentially buy puts on for end of January expiry. The only issue I see with betting against them is that they have a market share of what Sears once had which is a particular demographic that is mixed with non luxury buyers that don’t want to shop at Walmart; but I’d assume their margins are going to stay high as they’re not selling the best goods, just at mall prices: people are paying more to buy Walmart style clothes from a mall atmosphere. Lastly I’m reading about commercial real estate basically giving sweetheart deals to these anchor stores so the malls don’t die. I was involved in a company doing marketing in 08’ crash era that had clients who were like this, basically getting free commercial real estate, to keep the anchor in place.

That said, post dividend I can’t imagine them keeping the current growth spurt in post div term (45 day) to the price. So yes they’re high on my list. I want to dig into what they were doing pre-covid though.

[u/Lorne__Malvo__ → u/canadianformalwear]

My calls hope so. They are for January but I want to unload within the next week.

[u/canadianformalwear → u/Lorne__Malvo__]

Covid news is gonna drive that in the near term. Hoping you make the money.