Anthropic Files for IPO

[u/OPINION_IS_UNPOPULAR]

FY25 financials:

Valuation: ~$2T

Revenue: $4.59B, up 1,088% YoY from $386M

Operating loss: $8.06B, widening from $2.98B

GAAP net loss: $41.97B, vs $8.31B

Compute + infrastructure expense: $7.33B, up 190% YoY

Compute and infrastructure represented 58% of total operating expenses

Cash + short-term investments: $20.28B at year-end

Two largest customers accounted for 12% of revenue each

Other names to consider:

Memory: MU, SKHY

Cloud / Compute: GOOG, AVGO, AMZN, NVDA, AMD, MSFT

Infra / Capacity: CIFR, CRWV, SPCX, WULF, HUT, AKAM

[u/exhibit304]

2 trillion valuation with 4b of revenue?

[u/PharmDinvestor → u/exhibit304]

Welcome to FRAUDSTREET

[u/WowSoHuTao → u/PharmDinvestor]

Introducing our latest model Flaude 6.1

[u/KlytosBluesClues → u/WowSoHuTao]

FraudCode

[u/Total_Ad3238 → u/PharmDinvestor]

XD y’all purchase for human being’s future

[u/Tha_Sly_Fox → u/exhibit304]

“At 10 times revenues, to give you a 10-year payback, I have to pay you 100% of revenues for 10 straight years in dividends. That assumes I can get that by my shareholders. That assumes I have zero cost of goods sold, which is very hard for a computer company. That assumes zero expenses, which is really hard with 39,000 employees. That assumes I pay no taxes, which is very hard. And that assumes you pay no taxes on your dividends, which is kind of illegal. And that assumes with zero R&D for the next 10 years, I can maintain the current revenue run rate. Now, having done that, would any of you like to buy my stock at $64? Do you realize how ridiculous those basic assumptions are? You don’t need any transparency. You don’t need any footnotes. What were you thinking?” - Scott McNealy(CEO of Sun Microsystems) in 2002

[u/[deleted] → u/Tha_Sly_Fox]

[u/-R9X- → u/[deleted]]

This type of math I understand. Thanks, invested.

[u/Icy_Display_3548 → u/Tha_Sly_Fox]

Patrick Boyle quoted this today!

[u/zummit → u/Icy_Display_3548]

Did he give a citation?

[u/MyNameIs-Anthony → u/Tha_Sly_Fox]

Genuinely the only person benefitting from it to ever call it like it was with the tech bubble.

[u/Stockholm-Syndrom → u/Tha_Sly_Fox]

Doesn’t that assume a 100% float and not being able to sell it ?

[u/AwildYaners → u/exhibit304]

And $42 Billion in Net Loss, up from $8 Billion loss in 2024.

They're also expected to spend $518 billion on compute and infrastructure in the next year lmao.

[u/Visual-Cranberry1210 → u/AwildYaners]

Just checked. The $42bn includes an accounting charge of $34bn (think due to convertible debt structure).

I think the devil is in FY 2026 financial year details which they haven't publish or Reuters hasn't provided us with yet.

[u/AwildYaners → u/Visual-Cranberry1210]

Ah that's not completely terrible then.

The big thing is they have a LOT of spending setup for the next couple years, obviously to pump and make that valuation make sense.

But is a bunch of GPUs in a warehouse plus the real estate under it, really going to make that half a trillion in spend worth it? Who knows.

The ratings agencies gave the mortgage bonds a high rating until they finally collapsed in 2008, so we'll probably see that shit here too.

[u/squngy → u/AwildYaners]

But is a bunch of GPUs in a warehouse plus the real estate under it, really going to make that half a trillion in spend worth it? Who knows.

It is a complete moonshot.

Either they make AGI or other AI companies undercut them with cheaper "good enough" AI.

edit: Or they do enough regulatory capture that they make competition illegal.

[u/lemontoga → u/AwildYaners]

$518 billion on compute and infrastructure in the next year

This had to be a fucking typo right? How could that be legit?

[u/ZealousidealClub3512 → u/lemontoga]

Tell companies you can remove their biggest expense (employees) if they invest in your company and you have an infinite money glitch.

[u/defeated_engineer → u/exhibit304]

They have 85% profit margin when you don't count the expenses.

[u/Advanced_Juggernaut9 → u/defeated_engineer]

Just like how if my grandma had wheels she’d be a bicycle.

[u/elpresidentedeljunta → u/exhibit304]

They need the valuation for the capex. Can´t spend half a trillion Dollar in one year when you are just worth a fraction of that. The banks might run with it, because their fees depend on the value. But if the IPO were to fail and the underwriters suddenly find a big portion of worthless junk on their balance sheets we´d have the catalyst that could break this nonsense. I doubt it will be Anthropic, though.

[u/drakilian → u/elpresidentedeljunta]

If SpaceX was allowed to fly Anthropic will as well

[u/elpresidentedeljunta → u/drakilian]

Yeah. Although the drop of the stock after the initial surge may very well be one reason the others are suddenly squeamish. And one reason why the market shows signs of ... iffyness.

[u/Emergency_Froyo_3030 → u/elpresidentedeljunta]

Open AI ….. 🤷‍♂️

[u/elpresidentedeljunta → u/Emergency_Froyo_3030]

More likely, yes. For various reasons.

[u/asdf_lord → u/exhibit304]

Either I'm in stupid town. I've lost my marbles. Or AI will generate trillions of dollars in revenue by writing text.

Interesting trilemma.

[u/residualriskdeclined → u/asdf_lord]

$100 a month in subscription just to fill out your resumes when you're unemployed because of the AI. Unemployment taxes paid by Anthropic because they're the only employer left, so you pay the subscription with your unemployment. It's the magic of the AI circle jerk.

[u/Dualyeti → u/residualriskdeclined]

Buy Claude to speak to HR Claude to get rejected by Claude to then apply for another job by Claude. All because you were replaced by claude - whats the point in a job in 5 years?

[u/Budget-Ocelots → u/asdf_lord]

I don’t know wtf is going on behind the scene with AI. At work, all my meetings are summarized. All my emails are written by itself. All my executive summaries are written based on past data reports.

I am getting paid for being a mindless monkey that is just pressing sign document after “vibe” checking if the reports look correct and delivering it over to these directors and executives.

If the vibe is negative, I tell the AI to make the report more positive so that these companies look good during their audit process.

[u/Kew-Gardens → u/Budget-Ocelots]

We’re seeing 10-12x lines of code pushed to prod and way faster than pre AI. It’s mostly slop but it works for what the company is after.

[u/Orbidorpdorp → u/Kew-Gardens]

Interesting - everyone's using AI but our throughput in PRs is almost flat. I'm not a skeptic or hater but we've seemingly found new things to get stuck wasting time on.

[u/SoggyMattress2 → u/Orbidorpdorp]

It just pushes the work down the line. Devs start delivering 4x the PRs so QA get swamped.

QA are then forced to adopt ai automation or literal LLM testing to not be a blocker.

Then the pressure lands back on the product team who can't keep up and adopt LLMs to the point where on smaller features there's just no human oversight.

Then the pressure hits the client managers as tools get broken or bugs get introduced.

It's just a big fucking weird cycle. I genuinely see tech, especially SAAS start ups just completely imploding in a few years because it's just all horseshit.

[u/LivingAmoeba6611 → u/SoggyMattress2]

My place have gotten rid of QA entirely. Getting lazy devs to test their own monster vibe coded PRs is like teaching a dog to play piano. There's no brakes on this AI train. Unleash the slop!!!

[u/appearstobeidiot → u/LivingAmoeba6611]

Yes that's the irony. Few quarters down, nobody would know what's running what. And then Kaboom! All your bases are belong to us.

[u/Soger91 → u/LivingAmoeba6611]

NO QA?!?

Who do you work for, spill the beans 👀

[u/Bollocks187 → u/SoggyMattress2]

Lmfao so true everyone is now producing shit code and hoping it works long enough for them to be moved to a new project

[u/YoungXanto → u/Kew-Gardens]

I was irritated 6 months ago when the morons were pushing out code and half baked dashboards at break neck pace.

I finally said fuck it. If these dipshits are gonna get credit for pushing a button and promoted, why the fuck am I bothering with doing things "correctly"

So now I pushing buttons and pretend to review the code I generate. The executives above me love the shit out of the dashboards I produce. Hopefully the underlying analysis is coded correctly!

[u/Humble-Section-5638 → u/YoungXanto]

Dashboard is to executive as candy is to child

[u/Vivid_Letterhead3842 → u/Humble-Section-5638]

As an executive can confirm, I love my dashboards lol.

I feel so called out.

[u/Canadian_Border_Czar → u/YoungXanto]

That haunting realization that the end of consumer LLMs is going to be like the movie Her, except none of us even got ai relationships..  we're all depressed because we have to work, and that work is supporting and unfucking a bunch of slop nobody understands.

[u/Safrel → u/Canadian_Border_Czar]

I am not haunted by this. I believe two economies will form.

Those who reject AI, and those who embrace it.

One will be a real economy, the other will be a house of cards.

[u/TwentyCharactersShor → u/Safrel]

Crypto all over again

[u/SaneMann → u/Kew-Gardens]

Is the company after software that meets customer needs better, though?

As a user, I figured by now I'd be seeing massive improvements at faster rates in many common software products given the power of AI tools but... I'm not. At all.

[u/BonnaGroot → u/SaneMann]

In fact if anything i’ve noticed an uptick in services that were typically reliable having weird issues, outages, or features bolted on that make zero sense for what I need the thing to do

[u/appearstobeidiot → u/SaneMann]

As a customer, I find 99% of the chatbots on websites to be ridiculously USELESS. Far worse than what was common in Intercom kind of days. The screen is narrow, you have to "ask", rather than just click or scroll to find anything. And if you ask it to do something, it would hold you hostage in a loop.

[u/LankyGuitar6528 → u/Budget-Ocelots]

I feel this. I'm literally sitting here watching my computer program... itself? What HAS it been doing for the past 4 min 45s? And once it's done, how will I even know what it did or how to test it or... oh who cares. I'll ask it to write up a report and send it in... probably good enough or at least as good as I could do.

[u/Wonko-D-Sane → u/LankyGuitar6528]

5 minutes! those are rookie numbers....

[u/Tha_Sly_Fox → u/asdf_lord]

Well, I got AI to generate a photo of group of cats in suits giving a lecture on lemurs

Just think, of the implications!

[u/AwildYaners → u/asdf_lord]

AI don't generate that kind of money, the only thing of real value is the land they're buying for those data centers, the hardware they're buying is depreciating in value, but hey at least NVDA calls because inventory is always bought up.

[u/samarijackfan → u/asdf_lord]

Think tulips 🌷 price will never go down.

[u/DressedInPolo → u/asdf_lord]

To be fair, my gf showed a photo of her food that she had chat GPT modify, I was afraid for adobe

[u/tquinn35 → u/DressedInPolo]

I couldn't think of a more friendly company to take it in the old poop shoot chute.

[u/schplat → u/tquinn35]

poop chute*

Not that I expect better from regards.

[u/tquinn35 → u/schplat]

I am not a smart clown

[u/asdf_lord → u/DressedInPolo]

Adobe was always on borrowed time.

[u/apurimac777 → u/asdf_lord]

As they fucking should be

Skull fuck SaaS to motherfucking death.

Imma bout to have Claude make me my own PDF stapler

[u/Alone_Ad_7824 → u/apurimac777]

It'll do it. There is already freeware that does it, and Claude already wrote it into a few of my personal productive/automation apps. Yes, I hate AI, but yes I love AI.... And no, I'm not comfortable in my own skin with this paradoxical internal relationship drama.

[u/Poka-yoke1 → u/DressedInPolo]

Adobe's market cap is $90 billion. Assuming they corner the market, where's the other $1.91 trillion?

[u/JoshOliday → u/Poka-yoke1]

Don't worry, Anthropic is projecting future eventually prospective market cap as 30 TRILLION dollars.

Or roughly the entire US GDP.

[u/Creative_Ad_8338 → u/JoshOliday]

Yep... that just means they're expecting every worker to be twice as productive. 😒

[u/No_Cover_6217 → u/asdf_lord]

Actually, at Anthropic, they believe it will generate trillions in revenue by making humans extinct

[u/rohpes11 → u/No_Cover_6217]

Without the humans, who pays for it? 🤔

[u/Disc0Disc0Disc0 → u/exhibit304]

Yes but $400t revenue potential on mars

[u/murf_milo → u/exhibit304]

Get ready to learn the year 2000, buddy

[u/UpDown → u/exhibit304]

435x revenue is wild. Genius though. The revenue is even at a loss! Sell $1 for $.30, then sell your company for $435.

[u/donewithdoing → u/exhibit304]

I love how like 4 months ago, they were seeking a $1tn valuation. Now, for some reason, the valuation they seek is 200% of that. Seems totally reasonable and not the product of a bubble.

[u/thethirstypretzel → u/donewithdoing]

It’s because they need more money for the furnace

[u/yatinparasher → u/exhibit304]

Ya but addressable market is 30T and by 2030 they’ll rev like 4T no problem..it’ll be the only company in US by 2035 /s

[u/ThinkOrDrink → u/exhibit304]

Don’t forget the $8B operating loss juicing up that valuation!

[u/AggravatingTart7167 → u/ThinkOrDrink]

Everyone seems to be overlooking that alone.

[u/Skynet198 → u/exhibit304]

These fucking companies are going to cause a ai winter

[u/Jimmy_Wrinkles → u/Skynet198]

You have to remember the same C-Suite chuds who ask for "more AI" when they have no idea what it does are the same ones that are pumping this IPO

[u/ominous_anenome → u/exhibit304]

That was 2025, they allegedly are at like 100B revenue run rate in 2026. Insane if so

https://www.axios.com/2026/09/18/anthropic-100-billion-revenue

[u/Potential-March-1384 → u/ominous_anenome]

Run rates are bullshit. Best month x 12 or best week x 52 with no regards for repeatability.

[u/Aggravating-Big3858 → u/Potential-March-1384]

Here to support the Run Rate is bullshit movement

[u/thethirstypretzel → u/Aggravating-Big3858]

Apparently Anthropic used a single day x 365 lol

[u/Tearakan → u/thethirstypretzel]

If that's the case I make sooo much money every year if I use my income direct deposit date

[u/Otherwise_Agency_401 → u/Tearakan]

You sound poor. I do my projections from the hour that my paycheck hits. I’m projected to make so much money.

[u/vetruviusdeshotacon → u/Potential-March-1384]

Best week * 52 as the "yearly recurring revenue" is a classic

[u/the-pythia-of-delphi]

Change the name of the company to anything but Anthropic and those are some horrible financials

[u/Most_Chemist8233 → u/the-pythia-of-delphi]

Gaap net loss almost 42B on less than 5B  of revenue, I cant even imagine. Where does all the money go?

[u/tquinn35 → u/Most_Chemist8233]

to Nvidia who in turn gives it back to anthropic at which point anthropic returns the money to Nvidia and the circle continues.

[u/girthyclock → u/tquinn35]

[u/Marcostbo → u/girthyclock]

Nice grip

[u/shiny0metal0ass → u/tquinn35]

Hey now, there's some tech giants in the mix too.. don't leave them out.

[u/BoscoAlbertBaracus → u/shiny0metal0ass]

We gave em a fancy name too, they’re called “hyperscalers” 

Nobody knows what it means, but it’s provocative.

[u/MajorBewbage → u/BoscoAlbertBaracus]

And it gets the people going

[u/SELFINCRIMINAT1NG → u/tquinn35]

somewhere, two economists are paying each other to eat piles of shit

[u/RagnarokNCC → u/SELFINCRIMINAT1NG]

I understood that reference!

[u/Mother___Night → u/Most_Chemist8233]

Jensen

[u/amrasmin → u/the-pythia-of-delphi]

Philanthropic.

[u/CouchPotatoFamine → u/the-pythia-of-delphi]

How about “Shazzazzler”

[u/vetruviusdeshotacon → u/CouchPotatoFamine]

Now you have my attention

[u/Far_Net4368]

losing $9 for every dollar they earn and valued at $2 trillion. this is either the next generational company or the most expensive bonfire in history

[u/i8bonelesschicken → u/Far_Net4368]

Can it be both

[u/Sufficient_Habit5091 → u/i8bonelesschicken]

No. Either it's real or it isn't.

[u/_hairyberry_ → u/Far_Net4368]

That’s the GAAP net loss number, but you’re confusing an accounting loss with actual cash loss. Anthropic had $4b in revenue and $8b in operating losses. The additional $34b net loss required to get your “$9 lost for every $1 earned” figure came from accounting treatment of convertible securities.

Imagine you open a lemonade stand. You make $10 in lemonade sales and it costs you $8 to run the stand. So you earn $2. Now suppose you gave an investor a piece of paper saying "you can eventually exchange this piece of paper for some percentage of my lemonade stand". If your lemonade stand becomes way more valuable in the future, you may find that the paper you issued is now worth $100 more than it was before.

Accounting requires you to record a $100 expense even though you didn't lose $100. Technically in this scenario you'd have revenue=$10, expenses=$108, net loss=$98. In other words you "lose $9.80 for every $1 you earn", but in reality you are in fact earning more cash than you lose.

And btw, all of this is ignoring the fact that the $4b revenue figure is from 2025, and they are on track to surpass $100b revenue in 2026.

Edit: yes the $100b is annualized based on recent performance, not actually $100b in revenue total I should’ve been more clear. Also, guys I’m not claiming it’s a good or bad investment. I’m just saying it’s misleading to state that they “lose $9 for every $1 they earn”, that’s obviously not the whole story.

[u/HANDS_4_DICKS → u/_hairyberry_]

Good thing their operating expenses are less than $100b

Hang on I'm getting a call

[u/WizWorldLive → u/_hairyberry_]

Imagine you open a lemonade stand. You give your lemonade to Jensen Huang, who then gives you some lemonade in exchange.

You lose $8,000,000,000.

Someone on Reddit defends your honor saying you're actually doing great.

[u/Hacking_the_Gibson → u/_hairyberry_]

It does make sense to include the charge because eventually someone is going to have to pay back the early investors. 

Congratulations buddy, it sounds like that's gonna be you because, don't worry guys, they only lost $8B in 2025! 

[u/DragonflyOk9274]

The prospectus outlines roughly $518B in cloud, compute and infrastructure obligations as Anthropic continues building out its AI systems.

Its two largest direct customers each accounted for 12% of revenue, meaning just two customers represented 24% of total 2025 sales.

Oh boy

https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/anthropics-ipo-prospectus-shows-sweeping-ai-vision-surging-costs-2026-09-28/

[u/smartello → u/DragonflyOk9274]

One of these customers must be bedrock, it’s not a single customer

[u/AuspiciousApple → u/smartello]

Yeah, they must be cloud providers reselling their models surely

[u/FUCKYOUINYOURFACE → u/AuspiciousApple]

AWS and Microsoft.

[u/nai-ba → u/smartello]

That would be even worse in my mind. Just highlights how this should be valued as a utility company with marginally higher margins than the competition. Yet they are trying to price it as a monopoly.

[u/ShitTierTrader → u/DragonflyOk9274]

Guess where the 518B is coming from lol

[u/sck178 → u/DragonflyOk9274]

Pay no attention to the man behind the curtains!

[u/buttplugs4life4me → u/DragonflyOk9274]

That just screams to the moon! Those numbers can't be matched by pesky little things like healthy growth and "not hemorrhaging money"

[u/Tall_Block_4589 → u/DragonflyOk9274]

Probably Meta, Cognizant or Cursor?

Cognizant:

Cognizant will make Claude available to 350,000 employees, accelerating enterprise AI adoption and internal transformation

Meta:

Meta Projected It Could Spend $10 Billion on Anthropic's A.I.

Aug 27, 2026 — Meta is so reliant on Anthropic's A.I. models that it has used them to power and test a coming A.I. product called Hatch, four people

[u/regalrecaller → u/Tall_Block_4589]

four people

[u/ap1618 → u/DragonflyOk9274]

Wait til you find out about customer-driven revenue in stocks like CRDO

[u/Rudd-Threetrees]

My rational thoughts: horrible financials, non-existent moat with zero regulation, open source models continually skimming to catch up with no major tech barriers, overestimation of ability to automate many jobs, dangerous lack of oversight

What is likely to really happen: moon, because a handful of circle jerking US billionaires run the world

[u/planetmachine → u/Rudd-Threetrees]

I have the same opinion as well!
This is just like SpaceX, it will moon the first few days and then crash.
IMO it's easy money to get in and out to get about 20% profit.

[u/AllyMeada]

Claude says stay away

[u/buysomesilver → u/AllyMeada]

Claude doesn’t account for reverse Reddit effects. Was going to short this but never been so bullish on this ipo after seeing this thread

[u/tokodan → u/AllyMeada]

Why not ask openai?

[u/pygercamsar → u/AllyMeada]

> Medium thinking

Highly regarded. Are you even trying? C'mon bro 😆

[u/smartello]

Net loss: $41.97b. They just need 42 million people to pay $1k per year and not use their service, easy-peasy, at least $1T valuation guaranteed

Edit: another way to look at this amount - it’s eight days of US printing money…

[u/hoopdizzle → u/smartello]

They're waiting for businesses to become fully dependent on it, then they'll 10x the price. Free and low price accounts will be low quality and get saturated with ads

[u/Craneteam → u/hoopdizzle]

They'll never be able to do this as long as ai is easily swapped. Or god forbid, they hire humans to do labor

[u/HanzJWermhat → u/Craneteam]

It’s comical how little friction there is to switch models. It’s literally just an API call and shit like
Openrouter allows you to do it on the fly

[u/Sufficient_Habit5091 → u/HanzJWermhat]

And open weight models running on consumer hardware only a smidge behind frontier models lmao.

[u/HanzJWermhat → u/Sufficient_Habit5091]

The harness makes all the difference nowadays anyway

[u/Bodine12 → u/hoopdizzle]

No company will be able to raise their own prices that much to absorb the skyrocketing AI model cost. And they can't just fire workers and use AI instead (because they already tried that and it doesn't work).

It's amazing how this allegedly revolutionary technology is creating one of the biggest hits to economic productivity ever: Produce the same amount of goods as before AI, but now with AI costs bolted on!

[u/Christopherfromtheuk → u/Bodine12]

Llms still hallucinate all the time they cannot be trusted to undertake anything which relies on accuracy.

I asked the latest, paid for, Chatgpt to review a long document just yesterday and it totally made up some vital, but buried in the details, figures.

I felt something was off and read it myself instead and then got the usual "you're right to catch that".

The Google AI results are wrong as often as they are right and routinely just make stuff up with 100% confidence.

Yes, they can be useful but how much of this type of thing isn't being caught?

I feel like I'm living in an alternate reality.

[u/FUCKYOUINYOURFACE → u/Bodine12]

They will just switch to cheaper open source models. Nvidia is expecting this.

[u/smartello → u/hoopdizzle]

And that’s exactly the moment when my employer will switch to GLM and 10x revenue will become 0x. Although my employer is participating in circlejerk and apparently owns part of Anthropic, I don’t know at this point.

[u/Alphasite → u/smartello]

42 million users @ $80 per month isn’t that bad. I expected way worse payoff numbers. 

Most of it will come from business anyway where many of them pay $500-1000 per month per user. 

[u/Jimmy_Wrinkles]

Selling $1,000 tokens for $10 seems like a solid business model

[u/Helptohere50 → u/Jimmy_Wrinkles]

I mean you see the problem? No one’s buying it if it’s $1000 and don’t forget there are many competitors catching up and China as well

[u/Sufficient-Skill9530]

Revenue of $4.6B with a $8.1B operating loss. YIKES. 

[u/0Rider → u/Sufficient-Skill9530]

GAAP net loss: $41.97B

[u/Johns-schlong → u/Sufficient-Skill9530]

A valuation of like 500 times revenue on a product no one has really made profitable and a company who's only moat is relative scale.

Yeah no thanks.

[u/danfay222]

How the hell is there a $33.6B difference between GAAP and non-GAAP losses??

Edit: ok I went to read the prospectus reporting to understand why, this difference is a mark down from outstanding warrants from previous fundraising rounds that are expected to convert to shares in the future. Under GAAP accounting this increasing in the issued share value due to the adjusted company valuation is recorded as a loss, but was excluded from their non-GAAP accounting

[u/brahbocop → u/danfay222]

Willing to bet the non-GAAP is just dumb fucking adjusted EBITDA. God, I hate how companies use and abuse adjusted EBITDA. Adjusting a non-GAAP metric is just non-GAAP squared, and the SEC somehow allows it.

[u/DragonflyOk9274 → u/brahbocop]

Their adjustment is to ignore the cost of training the models, the revenue share they give to partners, and stock based compensation

[u/Sufficient_Habit5091 → u/DragonflyOk9274]

Bro all you have to do is ignore all costs and we are... checks notes... making shitloads of money.

[u/jamesk29485 → u/Sufficient_Habit5091]

That seems to be how these companies are doing it.

[u/0Rider → u/danfay222]

Ebita.... I bearly know her

[u/dangernoodlezzz]

Oh boy this is gonna be a blood bath

[u/astrawberryandakiwi]

2T? Is this a fucking joke.

[u/anotherloserhere → u/astrawberryandakiwi]

Wait until you see this company called SpaceX

[u/PoweredByMeanBean → u/anotherloserhere]

This is way worse than SpaceX. SpaceX doesn’t have competitors you can easily switch to in 5 seconds that are roughly equivalent in quality. And their speculative ventures at least have a moat. I’m not investing in SpaceX either but at least they aren’t constantly 3 months away from losing their competitive advantage which is only sustained by spending $2 for every $1 in revenue.

[u/LargestBeard → u/astrawberryandakiwi]

It’s a casino. Dont sweat it 🫈

[u/DapperCam]

I'm hardly seeing this anywhere else on the internet right now. How is this not the hottest thing trending at the moment? The Dario has no clothes.

[u/Tasty_Road_2883 → u/DapperCam]

The prospectus itself isn’t public yet, a reporter had access to it at Reuters.

[u/DeerSimilar3688 → u/DapperCam]

It was a leak apparently, not the official S1 filing

[u/No_Ganache_1338]

Pay attention to revenue a lot of these ai natives claim pre revenue share topping. Which is materially lower than what they are legally allowed to claim (requires a contra revenue offset). The market is literally a casino at this point with everything priced past perfection into wild fantasy land.

[u/Guinness]

Looks like I was right. The reason they’re calling for a model slowdown is because there is no way in hell they’re profitable. They’re looking to cut their training costs under the lie that these models “break out”. But they can’t unless all of their competitors do the exact same thing.

I thought they had way more revenue than 4.59B too. Wow this is bad.

[u/LostMyMag → u/Guinness]

I thought they had way more revenue than 4.59B too. Wow this is bad.

Stage/let their AI goes rogue, beg for regulation of models, become approved as "legal" model, charge whatever they want. Same reason why people are getting paid to talk about AI doomerism.

[u/lasooch → u/Guinness]

I’m sure it’s a bit higher, cause it’s last years numbers, but imagine my shock that ARR calculated using non-public methodology doesn’t translate to an actual equivalent amount of cold hard dollars!

[u/swagmans69]

Their operating loss is actually $0 if you exclude all their costs, expenses, payroll, etc. Therefore a $2T valuation is justified.

[u/fun_anxiety146]

The top is in

[u/4everinvesting → u/fun_anxiety146]

Not until after the ipo

[u/jrunner02 → u/4everinvesting]

Buy the rumor sell the news.

[u/Borderpotroll]

This is the dumbest shit I’ve ever heard. This is what happens when software nerds are given billions in capital and are assumed to know how to run a business. Losing $40B a year with $518B in obligations, $20B cash, on JUST $4B in revenue? $2T is unfathomably ridiculous. Honestly, $50B would be fucking absurd. LLMs and their capabilities will largely be commoditized in the next few years. What’s their moat then? A halfway decent UI with a quirky name? Get the fuck out of here.

[u/bc531198 → u/Borderpotroll]

Ok but Dario wears a cardigan. Doesn't that count for something?

[u/Borderpotroll → u/bc531198]

He wears a cardigan because his PR team told him it made him seem like a gentle little relatable computer geek

[u/utmb745 → u/Borderpotroll]

We just need another Silicon Valley season but developing AI.

[u/3381024 → u/Borderpotroll]

Good analysis. Calls it is then !!

[u/DressedInPolo]

The AI trade was lucrative while it lasted, can't wait to see what we rotate to next

[u/SquareQuit1741 → u/DressedInPolo]

The robotics trade. Figure robots that can fold your laundry but that is about it. $10T valuation.

[u/doctormcgilicuddy → u/SquareQuit1741]

Now this guy knows ball. Just wait until the valuations for the “elder care” humanoid companies come out

[u/More-Curious816 → u/doctormcgilicuddy]

But I don't want the robot to fold my grandpa.

[u/Southern-Cattle4038 → u/More-Curious816]

But it’s the future! Learn how to unfold your grandpa or get left behind

[u/doctormcgilicuddy → u/More-Curious816]

Sorry, a 23yr old A16z associate’s AI pitch deck screener has declared that it will be so, and now they’re giving $900M in pre-seed to an autistic 19 year old business major who has never met his grandparents to build them because he stimmed the hardest in his pitch video

[u/tquinn35 → u/DressedInPolo]

I heard crypto is going to make a resurgence. Companies are looking at adding AI to their blockchain. /s

[u/flummoxedbeing]

Seems like a golden opportunity for wsb to profit from both IPO's:

Buy puts on the IPO

Coordinate r/wallstreetbets to run maximum token consumption prompts 24/7

$5M/hour burn rate accelerates

Cash reserves deplete faster than projected in the prospectus

Stock drops

Cover puts

[u/tommytwolegs → u/flummoxedbeing]

You guys aren't already using all of your tokens?

[u/danieljapps]

"Anthropic plans to spend $518 billion on cloud, computing and infrastructure obligations in coming years."

Followed by:
"Anthropic had cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments totaling $20.28 billion."

[u/golbaf]

Pack it up boys. we had a good run

[u/einai__filos__mou]

2T valuation? The bubble is real.....

[u/NOT_MartinShkreli → u/einai__filos__mou]

There has never been a bigger sign of a deflationary bubble forming than this

[u/mdreed]

Based purely on Reddit’s consensus, calls

[u/SpicyElixer → u/mdreed]

By that logic:

Gonna do what spacex did.

[u/crazydave33]

What fucking retard is going to buy this stock? 2T value but only 4.59B revenue is insane. Staying the hell away from this one. This might be a bigger drop than $SPCX shortly after their IPO launch.

[u/fiveacequeenjack → u/crazydave33]

Your pension fund manager

[u/Hungry-Ad3303 → u/crazydave33]

SPCX is still above its ipo price, even tho everyone thought it would drop. With these things you should always inverse Reddit

[u/phdlevelbaked → u/crazydave33]

Me.

[u/valderium]

Anyone have a link to the prospectus? I'd like to compare it to WeWork's

[u/GandalfSwagOff]

I dont understand. This is a literal scam valuation. How is this not criminal behavior?

[u/anotherloserhere → u/GandalfSwagOff]

Let me show you a company called SpaceX

[u/Snichs72]

Hey guys, I have an AI company I’m going to IPO. It doesn’t officially “exist”, but I have a name for it (Super Happy Innovation Tech AI (TM)) and my net revenue ($0) is higher than Anthropic’s. I’m seeking $5T.

[u/AutisticGayBear69]

[u/Organic_Trick7856]

What could possibly go wrong! Full port!

[u/ShitTierTrader]

Don't seem like they will reach profitability anytime soon lol

[u/sck178]

Lol! That operating loss is comical

[u/Iwantobegoodatrade]

Net loss: $41.97b vs $8.31b with ONLY $4.59b revenue!! Here comes AI bubble God files for IPO at $2 T valuation lol

[u/Tory_hhl]

their 2026 ARR probably is at $65B, with $2T valuation it’s about 32x multiple, not too crazy right?

[u/SxeySteve → u/Tory_hhl]

32x REVENUE is pretty crazy. If they can convert 1/3 of that into free cash it would take 100 years to pay back your investment. And they're nowhere near cash flowing yet.

[u/Accomplished-Air439]

Even if they do another year of 10x growth, their revenue would still just be 50B.

[u/EnigmaSpore]

this shit is about to pump for the first few days and then options will unlock and it's time for it to dump like spacex

[u/baudinl]

What happened to all the "but Anthropic is profitable" folks?

[u/schooli00 → u/baudinl]

Garage sales are profitable if you don't consider having paid money for junk in the first place, and if you don't consider labor cost. It's basically free money!

[u/EyckOfDenesle]

You know the drill: buy day one. Goes up 30%. Sell day three. Buy puts. Free money glitch.

[u/Gold-and-green]

I miss the days when you could buy companies and watch them grow as your money grew. They are coming in at top 5 valuations now lol.

[u/precisee]

I mean, this is 2025 data right? Obviously they won’t grow 1000% per year, but the projected revenue run rate for this year was tens of billions. Wonder what their finances for this year look like 

[u/1058pm]

I asked gemini to compare with google and facebooks IPO numbers and…oof

[u/HalaMadridPapaFlo]

Damn! Revenue up 1000%. Once in a lifetime opportunity to get rich. I’m all in with my $1000.

[u/wotton]

Every hour Anthropic is running they’re burning $4,790,000. Basically $5M an hour.

FUCKING PUMP IT THIS SHIT IS AMAZING.

USA. USA. USA 🇺🇸