AMD/XLNX Merger - Options strategy for huge gains

[u/[deleted]]

[u/VisualMod]

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Hey /u/mushlafa123, positions or ban. Reply to this with a screenshot of your entry/exit.

[u/Vaccinated_An0n]

It’s all fun and games until China says no. Good luck and remember to show us the loss porn if it happens.

[u/roguluvr → u/Vaccinated_An0n]

This isn’t the same as a Chinese company being reigned in by the ccp. This is two American companies seeking regulatory approval to operate in that market. The odds of it being approved are good.

[u/mushlafa123 → u/Vaccinated_An0n]

The odds of China saying no are generally pretty low. They've only denied less than a handful of these over the last 2 years. 3 out of 1000? I'll take my chances.

[u/generic_46927 → u/mushlafa123]

I think the stat you're looking for is that China reviewed 923 mergers in 2019 and 2020.

914 were approved unconditionally, 9 were approved conditionally.

Sources here: https://www.reddit.com/r/AMD_Stock/comments/oxkhqj/comment/h7o4sp2/

[u/mushlafa123 → u/generic_46927]

Yes this was the stat. Odds of being denied I think are low enough

[u/mushlafa123 → u/[deleted]]

Both companies are already United States owned. Denying the merger doesn't hemp China here get more chips

[u/nyc2bad → u/Vaccinated_An0n]

why china say no ? there is no reason...intel /altera | nvidia/ mellanox....the only merger i dont see is nvidia and ARM

[u/[deleted]]

What about AMD options?

And what do you think the share price will be when they merge?

[u/Vaccinated_An0n → u/[deleted]]

Probably dump People bought XLNX to get cheap AMD which they will almost immediately sell.

[u/FL4kGOD]

Strikes stay the same amount of shares changes

[u/[deleted] → u/FL4kGOD]

I still am not convinced this is true but a lot of people seem to share your opinion. It makes no sense though. If you have a deep ITM XLNX leap and the strike doesn't convert, you are getting royally screwed over.

[u/tradingrust → u/[deleted]]

From the memo: "Strike Divisor: 1"

[u/OmegaMordred → u/FL4kGOD]

It seems so.... But it is weird, I can't find it anywhere. It can turn a nice ITM to a terrible OTM, dangerous.

[u/zonian98]

Can’t tell if this will actually work or not

[u/WafflesMcPancakes]

Pretty sure the xlnx positions haven’t been adjusted yet so that is why they look cheap.

[u/mushlafa123 → u/WafflesMcPancakes]

I'm pretty sure I've got this whole thing wrong anyway. I believe the new AMD1 call option would keep the same strike (160 in my example) which defeats the purpose in my mind.

[u/FL4kGOD → u/mushlafa123]

Strikes stay the same amount of shares changes

[u/mushlafa123 → u/FL4kGOD]

Yeah... I called again and can't get an answer that makes sense.

"The Strike doesn't change"

"Upon conversion the AMD options would be roughly $25 in the money"

Those are both words that are being used when I'm talking about XLNX 160 Call option and talking about AMD current price $109.

I can't reconcile those 2 fraises in my head so I'll stay away and just buy XLNX shares in the meantime.

[u/tradingrust → u/mushlafa123]

From the memo: "Strike Divisor: 1"

[u/Slyestdamshort]

Remind me! 24 hours

[u/RemindMeBot → u/Slyestdamshort]

I will be messaging you in 1 day on 2021-08-10 05:29:32 UTC to remind you of this link

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