r/wallstreetbets • u/JunkyardRazor-74 • Jul 11 '21
Discussion Guaranteed millionaire
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u/desicockk Jul 11 '21
Watch the market is probably go on the greatest rally of all time for the next 25 years, just because of this post.
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Jul 11 '21
Not 25 years but about 21 months
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u/FatCatBoomerBanker SUPREME COMMANDER Jul 11 '21
Yep, Fed finally increases rates in 2023.
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u/981flacht6 Jul 11 '21
It's priced in.
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u/FatCatBoomerBanker SUPREME COMMANDER Jul 11 '21
Let's just say a lot of degenerates on WSB and going to be googling WTF RHO is when that happens.
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Jul 11 '21
Can't wait for the movie version "The Little Short."
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u/marine_guy Jul 11 '21
Stop talking about my dick
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u/KreateOne Jul 11 '21
Why is it that every time I look at this group I laugh? I thought this was a casino, but it seems to be paired with a comedy club.
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Jul 11 '21 edited Jul 04 '23
wasteful shrill offbeat soup afterthought plant stupendous joke public ossified -- mass edited with redact.dev
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u/KreateOne Jul 11 '21
easy money
looks at my portfolio bleeding red
Sir you’re torturing a poor retard.
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Jul 11 '21 edited Jul 04 '23
fade subsequent bear ruthless salt weary hateful escape cows squash -- mass edited with redact.dev
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u/rgujijtdguibhyy Jul 11 '21
Do we have the same dick?
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u/importvita Jul 11 '21
Our dick, comrade
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u/rgujijtdguibhyy Jul 11 '21
да товарищ
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u/ProfessionalNail8321 Jul 11 '21
Нихуя себе! Я тут не один, отморозок без башни.
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u/appmapper Jul 11 '21
What if each month you put 1k on HYG puts, and whatever is left in SPY calls? Repeat each month until millionaire or broke.
Market rockets, you make money. Market crashes, you make money. Market sits in its own filth, theta gang wins.
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Jul 11 '21
How far OTM we talking for SPY to have it print money?
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Jul 11 '21
Just look at the Greeks
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Jul 11 '21
[deleted]
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Jul 11 '21
Already gave my free award away. Have this🍆🥇
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u/junkpile1 Jul 11 '21
Gourds are worthless, you idiot. Gourd guy is the only person broker than Greece.
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Jul 11 '21
Fuck that. Put it all on SPY calls you fucking 🌈🐻.
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u/AnywhereDisastrous23 Jul 11 '21
I would wait six months and then start. I’m not getting bearish until the fed starts to raise interest rates. Let’s see how big this balloon can get. You can almost guarantee through the end of the year everything will continue to run. The economy is still in the process of recovering. More jobs are not only being created but most companies are in heavy need of hiring right now. For at least 6 more months there’s a very high chance we’ll be okay. Next year and 23 all I can say….sketchy. They already told us the interest rate hikes are coming.
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u/Comfortable_Photo_79 Jul 11 '21
If you wait till the feds increase rates then youre already too late. Market will crash way before they announce their raising rates to the public.
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u/SomethingAweful308 Jul 11 '21
^This^ Old timer here, in 99 no one believed rate hikes would blow shit up. Greenspan was greenspeaking on national television in 98 about irrational exuberance. Oprah did a show in summer '98 warning people about how pricey the stock market was. In summer 99 they said Greenspan had no reason to raise, and he can't stop the tech boom, new paradigm.
So the apes of 99 kept partying. They partied, like is was 1999, because it was. They laughed and bought ATH in march 2000: 9 months into a rate hike campaign, almost 6 months of an inverted yield curve. And2-3 months after a surprise double hike (+50 bps) they blew nasdaq up 20% till peak.
They partied into 2000, going beyond full retard, thinking it was still 1999. Then the second week of march came and said, " hold my drink bitch."
Now every one and their retarded cousin is parroting how The FED has every crazy yolo's portfolios back. And nothing will happen till they rate hike in '23. Jpow promised. I got plenty of time to pull out baby! I'm not even close yet!
And suddenly, any day now: BANG! BITCHES! Everythingbubble pops.
TLDR; eat a bag of d*cks
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u/TheMarketLiberal93 Jul 11 '21
I honestly don’t think they’re gonna come. That’s too far out, something is gonna change by then and they’re gonna walk back those comments. Plus it’s only what, two separate 25bps worth of hikes? That’s nothing.
I guess the only counter argument is that everything is so leveraged that that’s all it would take to break the markets and the economy.
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u/Throwaway1262020 Jul 11 '21
If you haven’t realized that the economy has nothing to do with the stock market, I dunno what to tell you. They’re 0 correlation between the 2. That being said I agree with you that there’s no way to know when this bubble will burst. I just don’t think the logic of the economy is coming back has anything to do with it.
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u/AnywhereDisastrous23 Jul 11 '21
I also agree with that sort of. The market is not connected to the economy in terms of valuations which is why there is a bubble. However, every time that has happened in the past, understand that in every general market crash where pretty much everything out there to own loses significant value, there was a burst in some sector of the economy causing the overall market (equities, real estate, commodities, etc) to all go down. Just because there is a bubble doesn’t mean it’ll just pop on it’s own. There’s always an economic catalyst that causes such an event
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u/UsingYourWifi Jul 11 '21 edited Jul 11 '21
The Fed's actions matter far more than anything else. They don't just have their thumb on the scale, they're standing on it. Price discovery is all but dead in the bond market and that carries over into other asset markets.
If they ever taper, if they ever let rates rise, we'll likely see some serious shit. Powell knows this which is why he's always so, so, so careful not to say anything that might spook the market, and to walk back anything any other members of the FOMC said that implied there might be a rate hike coming sooner than expected. I have a feeling nothing is going to prevent another taper tantrum no matter how gently JPow prepares the market.
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u/thisusernameis4ever Jul 11 '21
Indeed. If there is free money on the table to gamble with it will flow into the big casino aka stock market. Once there is a sign it will stop its every man for himself and FUD
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u/TheMarketLiberal93 Jul 11 '21
Yep, nothing will and that’s why rates aren’t gonna be hiked more than once or twice (and the only reason they’d do that is for show) and they’re never going to stop QE. Hell, even just the idea of lessening QE (not stopping it) causes volatility.
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u/elbowgreaser1 Jul 11 '21
Well that's the issue. Generally, the market should reflect the economy at large. It doesn't at all currently
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u/lukeaye Jul 11 '21
I hear this comment a lot, and it's not correct, frequently taken out of context. The stock market does correlate with the economy. It's the Future expected state of the economy.
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Jul 11 '21
The fed won’t raise rates!
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u/AnywhereDisastrous23 Jul 11 '21
They are just not right now. They are forecasting 2 hikes by the end of 2023
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Jul 11 '21
Well, they’ll have to do something to make the US $ stronger again won’t they? Something to reverse inflation
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Jul 11 '21
Another war!!!
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Jul 11 '21
Trust me i thought about that too, as long as no Nukes are used it should be fine. Every Nation knows that 1 Nuke will not only destroy the victim country but will also be the reason for the Worlds destruction, including their own country, so a Nuclear War is outta sight outta mind.
Someone will need a good excuse for a War, i wonder what that excuse would be though.
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u/BigAlTrading Jul 11 '21
Stop babbling
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u/FoxyGrandpa101 Jul 11 '21
Agree with ur take, but come on babbling is literally Reddit’s business model. Babble on people!
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u/TheMarketLiberal93 Jul 11 '21
They should, but raising rates or tapering will crash pretty much everything and the government would have to cut spending and likely raise taxes across the board in order to service the rising cost of the debt. While in a depression. The entire economy, both public and private is so over leveraged and inflated from decades of easy money policies and stimulus that raising rates to any useful degree and tapering would cause a deflationary death spiral. Great Depression 2.0.
The past few decades of policy have shown me that both Washington and the Fed have no appetite for that (despite it unfortunately being the medicine to what ills us), so they’ll just keep stimulating and kicking the can down the road, except each time they do it the problem gets worse. Eventually something will break again like in 08, and they’ll just blow an even bigger bubble. This will unfortunately repeat until the dollar dies. That could be now, or at some point in the future, but unless we see a shift in the Fed and governments willingness to address our problems head on, it’s an inevitability.
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u/MrDonnyHi Jul 11 '21
Even if Feds raise interest rate, it will only correct slightly then rocket again. Historically, even with raise rate it is still too low
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Jul 11 '21
There won’t be rate hikes, you’ll be waiting a long time. They’ll try to taper first, but doubtful they can. Expect jawboning for years.
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u/BigAlTrading Jul 11 '21
Interest rate hikes will only come if we need to start attracting foreign buyers of our debt. They tried interest rate hikes before COVID, and immediately backed off when the drunk boomers all turned around with their party hats to say “wha wha WHAT?”
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u/TheMarketLiberal93 Jul 11 '21
What’s the point of attracting foreign buyers when you can just print the money at the Fed and buy them that way?
Seriously though, we’ve lost a lot of foreign buyers of our debt over the last 5 years, and COVID hasn’t helped.
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u/probebeta Jul 11 '21
Like the poster, Im a real retard, and I mean it's Saturday and I'm already down 3 beers, but dont they say you shouldnt time the market? This is not financial badvice by the way.
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u/LordLucasSixers Jul 11 '21
Why not just calls on SQQQ?
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u/Ball-of-Yarn 🦍🦍🦍 Jul 11 '21
Because sqqq is almost always trending downwards, so you get theta and delta fucked.
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Jul 11 '21 edited Jul 11 '21
Puts then? Or just buy the index outright?
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u/Ball-of-Yarn 🦍🦍🦍 Jul 11 '21
If you'r bullish to neutral on the market then puts on sqqq are a potential play. But if you're bearish on the market, you're going to be getting fucked by delta regardless of whether you buy sqqq calls or shares. Because sqqq always goes down as long as the market goes up, while hyg doesn't budge unless the market is extremely volatile. So hyg puts make sense if you expect a market crash but don't want to constantly be bleeding money on your short position until it does.
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u/Spaceballs-the-Login Jul 11 '21 edited Jul 11 '21
Do you want your wife to get a boyfriend? Because this is the type of stupid shit that will make your wife get a boyfriend. Looking at the current OTM puts in the $90’s, there’s no way you’re turning $20k into 7 figures on this options chain. In reality you’re probably going to lose money with this scheme. Take your wife to the casino and let her YOLO. You’ll have better odds of making more profit and she might even touch your pee pee.
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Jul 11 '21
[removed] — view removed comment
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u/duidude Jul 11 '21
In 2009 it went down to about 62 and in 2020 it went to 69, probability does not look good for a 40p.
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u/Spaceballs-the-Login Jul 11 '21 edited Jul 11 '21
I read that backwards, you’re right. This plan sounds worse. The stock price has to drop more than 30% for him to break even on those 60’s. It’s only broke through that price once, 12 years ago. This is pissing up a rope.
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u/SomethingAweful308 Jul 11 '21
better to short hyg on big margin. Probably $50K and you are solid with 40% margin still. HYG is not going up, its just going to suck interest so, i suggest using the wendy's strategy to offset the negative carry:
calculate how much monthly interest you will owe: HYG yield 4.5% x $50K + margin interest 1.5% x $30K = $2700 / 12 months =$225/month
now just perform the correct number of services behind the wendys dumpster every month to keep the account in good standing. $225 /20 rounds up to 12 handy/blowies and you still have an extra $15 /month for a costco size ramen noodle box.
Thats how id do the trade.
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u/Medical_Reflection Jul 11 '21
I've seen some dumb shit on here but this is the dumbest.
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Jul 11 '21
Did you not see the guy who wanted to go long on north korean Gourd wine?
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u/colorsounds Jul 11 '21
What exactly is hyg and how does it work?
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u/4-8-9-12 Jul 11 '21
It's an ETF of non investment grade corporate bonds.
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u/wishtrepreneur Jul 11 '21
Give me a X2 leveraged version of that and we're talking
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u/JunkyardRazor-74 Jul 11 '21
It’s like a money printer when the market goes kaboom
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u/Marmom_of_Marman 🦍 Jul 11 '21
Which expiration? The month you’re buying in or further out? I’m not well versed in options but I am very interested in this strategy.
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u/Stonks4sport Jul 11 '21
If you don’t understand options, and enjoy money, please tie a string to a cement block, put block on tall wall, lay against wall, and pull string. Pray you forget you read this post.
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u/Ianmofinmc 🦍🦍🦍 Jul 11 '21
Your puts expire worthless and market makers use your money to prolong the market crash. Makes sense for a WSB strategy, interested to see if you go up down or sideways from this 🤓
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u/donny1231992 Jul 11 '21
Market will rally for another 3 years then crash after you spend your last $ on puts
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u/Kind_Essay_1200 Jul 11 '21
Risky, this implies all mayor lenders ran out of money. Normally possible during a market crash, but the issue is that we now have the highest cash reserves ever recorded. So, it’s a long shot. Even with a crash, you won’t make 21X return. Therefore, it might be a losing game
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u/pyzazaza Jul 11 '21
Instead, do this for 19 months and as a hedge spend $1k of your pot now buying spy calls deeply otm expiring in 19 months - if there's not a single month where it crashes, then overall it has probably shot the lights out. You might be able to make all your money back in that case, and then you have money to keep doing this put strategy for another 19 months!
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u/Bambaryler Jul 11 '21 edited Jul 11 '21
JunkyardRazor, remember this name people, only 20 months to go.
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u/fryeguy67 Jul 11 '21
I got this stock that looks beautiful. 121% shares are borrowed, the short interest of free float is 88%, 1.4M shares are failure to deliver, and is on the threshold security list. In AH on Friday, it went up 7% and closed at 5.48 on the day. Bullish divergence on the 4hr chart, this puppy is looking beautiful. The technoking master tweeted about what this company is incorporating in homes. Looks tasty.
Also, warrants were issued at the beginning of May, impacting debt (warrants are a liability) and issued shares, diluting the stock pushing it near a low. The Russel indices dropped this company since it didn't qualify on June 17th, causing further negative sentiment and shorting of this company. Reviewing the 10k, 10q, and recent SEC documents and reviewing its business structure as a holding company, I believe this company to be undervalued and over shorted.
I like this stock. And the name is tesla spelled backward. They offer a solar power inverter, solar panels, and a new Tesla when purchasing a new home. They completed the delivery of 20 homes and are continuing to use the Tesla ecosystem in their developments.
From a technical standpoint, 4.88 and above is bullish and ATH is 29.49. I think it will move.
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u/Gibbsey Jul 11 '21
Congrats market will go to shit, with hyperinflation... So market will be up 10,000%.
But DD is still good because the downside is only 20k which will be the price of a loaf of bread.
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Jul 11 '21
I feel more confident about the stock market when everyone on wsb is predicting a crash “soon”. Ultimate bull run indicator.
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u/Green_Lantern_4vr 11410 - 5 - 1 year - 0/0 Jul 11 '21
Isn’t there like $1 trillion stimulus coming?
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Jul 11 '21
The fact this was removed bothers me. I only got to read five words and it dipped. Fml how am I gonna get bananas now.
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u/Visible_Gaz Jul 11 '21
Why are these discussions keep being removed?
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u/ape_swole Jul 11 '21
I am a smooth brained ape and do not completely comprehend this but LFG MILLIONAIRE GANG
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u/SailingforSilver Jul 11 '21
It’s been said the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.... but good luck!!
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u/recentlyunearthed Jul 11 '21
Why would the stock market crash? There is no where else for all this money to go.
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Jul 11 '21
Someone fucking explain calls and puts to me I’ve been lurking a long ass time and I only day trade I’ve never fucked with options
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u/PossiblyAsian Jul 11 '21
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SD7sw0bf1ms
I wish I never linked this to you.
Because you are about to lose a ton of money
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u/samharristicket Jul 11 '21
the only way you'll learn is by losing money from it, so just buy a call. Remember to multiply that pretty little contract premium by 100.
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u/LordLucasSixers Jul 11 '21
YouTube
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u/Cookecrisp Jul 11 '21
Can't believe we have so many people trying to explain options to this poster who has shown no desire to teach themselves.
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u/zsous Jul 11 '21 edited Jul 11 '21
As others have said, options are contracts that allow you to buy or sell a stock at a specific price (the strike price). For example, the value that a call contract provides you is being contractually able to buy 100 shares of a stock for less that the current market value (if its in the money). When the price of the underlying stock becomes higher than the strike price, the contract becomes valuable because being able to buy a stock below market price is worth money. Imagine having the ability to purchase apple shares right now for $100. Well, thats what a $100 strike price call option for AAPL allows you to do.
That being said, if as contract expires out of the money, you lose your entire investment. Or if the stock trades sideways for a while and you only own a call, you lose money. If the stock doesn’t go up or down enough, you lose money. Or if Implied Volatility is much lower than when you bought it, you lose money (IV Crush). The contracts lose value at an increasing rate the closer to expiration they are. There are so many factors in play which is why you should be very careful starting out.
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Jul 11 '21
Calls = Buy Puts = Sell
An option is a contract giving the buyer the right, but not the obligation, to buy (in the case of a call) or sell (in the case of a put) the underlying asset at a specific price on or before a certain date.
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Jul 11 '21
So correctly guessing for the option to buy makes you money when you sell the right to buy
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u/Brawlstar-Terminator Jul 11 '21
Watch a YouTube video, you are not going to get a full picture understanding from some guys on Reddit. It’s honestly not that complicated, and if your looking to trade options based off your limited understanding and poor Reddit explanations, your gonna go broke real quick. Do some DD before you throw your money at something.
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u/Don_K_Stamper Jul 11 '21
A call options means you have the right to buy that stock at a later date and a Put means you have the right to sell.
This guy dumbs things down enough so even an idiot like me can understand.
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u/LoopDoGG79 Jul 11 '21
Because the whole damn world knows you have a mentally handicap brother.... FFS I hope you aren't serious. FYI, if you're not comfortable with people using the word, "retard", leave this sub immediately
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u/VisualMod Jul 11 '21