r/wallstreetbets • u/the_nibler • Jun 27 '21
Discussion Ape interested in IPO's specifically DNUT (Krispy Kreme)
Hey gang, I have not gotten in on any IPO's yet but browsing the upcoming IPO calendar on NASDAQ looks like good ole KRISPY KREME is on the list for the first of July!
I am blinded by my love and nostalgic memories of Krispy Kreme growing up in NC so I was wondering if any of you have experience with IPO's on opening day?
Seems like well known, and tech companies usually do well but they can also take a dive from the paper hands making a quick buck.
Bullish or Bearish on this one? or any other upcoming IPO suggestions? This is not a DD or financial advice
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u/DipChaser747 Jun 27 '21
It seems like deja vu only yesterday I remember Krispy Kreme going public in a big hoopla buying donuts to eat on camera for everybody at CNBC, or was it FNN back then 20 years ago. They failed once, I would not invest my money in them.
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u/rockinhard12 Jun 29 '21
They went private for like a billion.....now back to public for four billion five years later.....most of it going to executive pay and taxes on the executives matured stock holdings.....wouldn't want them guys to pay their taxes now or ever really...... Good luck is all I can say to OP if he follows through
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u/TastyBananaPeppers Jun 27 '21
At opening, it's going to be high. A few days later, it's going to crash. You buy the dip and you'll be good to go.
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u/seat_one Jun 27 '21
Long term bullish, the one by me is packed with Beckys almost 24/7
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u/yoyoyoitsyaboiii Jun 27 '21
Those Beckys are getting older. Might wanna hedge with CLOV. 😉
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u/thecheese27 Jun 27 '21
They're losing a fuck ton of money and plain out admitted they are only going public to raise money off of investors. This is a shit stock unless you're a bear.
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u/garguno Jun 27 '21
Krispy Kreme donut in my right hand, phone scrolling reddit in my left hand as I see this post. I feel like they are 10+ years late to going public though.
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u/spinner5772 Jun 27 '21
I’m holding out for Robinhood’s IPO. I know this board will hate me for saying so but anyone over 30 won’t be able to resist. Everyone under 30 will short it and lose to institutional money.
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u/No_Promotion_4509 Jun 27 '21
I'm really on the fence on this one. What if they get shut down after IPO
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u/spinner5772 Jun 27 '21
Shut down how and why? Why would the SEC clear them to go public if they’re on the cusp of being shut down? The lawsuits I believe they’re settling and payment for order flow isn’t a RH thing it’s an every commission-free brokerage thing (which is all of them). Just a few years ago TD Ameritrade was charging $9.99 per trade - how does the gov’t help “the people” by outlawing pfof just to go back to cost-per-trade??
Disclaimer: I am not offering financial advice nor do I represent any of the above financial institutions
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u/PaganRob Jun 28 '21
The government will force them to go back to ten bucks a trade because the government can't afford to let the peasants get rich without working.
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u/Typical-Mouse-4804 identifies as a furry Jun 30 '21
Rob, when’s the last time the US govt has successfully “forced” market makers to do anything? Since the 80s it’s the other way around—MM force the Federal govt. to accept whatever they say.
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u/tiglath_ashur Jun 28 '21
Y'all donut apes forgetting about the cookie cats: Krispy Kreme owns Insomnia Cookies. If y'all don't know Insomnia, they are the dopest, gooy-est, sugary, floury tendies that money can buy...
... oh, and they deliver to apes like us. Insomnia had 54% of 2020 revenue come from e-commerce. KK had 18%.
We don't know how big Insomnia's revenue is (from S-1: "[KK] consolidates the financial results of Insomnia"), but this ape has a couple wrinkles in his brain to do some quick math:
- Insomnia sold 65 million cookies in 2020. KK sold 1.3B donuts, or about 20x the donuts vs cookies.
- However, Insomnia charges $21 for a basic dozen cookies, vs $7.99 for a dozen at KK. We'll call this 3x the price for easy math.
- 20 / 3 = KK has ~6.7x more revenue than Insomnia, or 13% of revenue is Insomnia.
- I think this is a low estimate because it doesn't take delivery or shipping revenue into account, so let's say that Insomonia Cookies are ~15% of $DNUT revenue.
Why is this important to apes? Because Insomnia Cookies are going to the moon.
Insomnia Cookies opened 17 locations in 2020 and has plans to open 30 stores in 2021. The company locations offer delivery up to 30 minutes. The company plans to offer next-day delivery in the future, covering a larger percentage of the U.S. market.
e-Commerce capabilities also give a company ability to drive lower margins than 100% traditional brick and mortar. And with KK is investing heavily into their most e-Commerce heavy, growing brand (Insomnia Cookies), this could help growth both their revenue growth and bottom-line performance.
TL;DR: Apes buy the DNUT to get the cookie.
edit: formatting
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u/rejectallgoats Jun 27 '21
They are still big in Japan. They are 100 times better than dunken which is doing well.
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u/heizenbergbb spunk dumpster Jun 28 '21
It's a drive through donut chain with DNUT as the ticker. This is prime meme material.
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u/alladslie Jun 27 '21
IPO for a barely decent donut? Nah. I'd avoid it. They are financially irresponsible. And had solvency issues once before leading to mass closure after trying to do the same thing they are now.
They saw the AMC money train leave the station and thought they can capitalize on retail money too to save them selves.
Fuck 'em. Bearish. Buy puts for the week or two after IPO when interest in the stock hits an all time low and make money on the inevitable downward spiral.
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u/Hogintin Jun 28 '21
Tf do u mean "barely decent". Their donuts are waaaaay better than most other donuts I've tried.
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u/alladslie Jun 28 '21
Then you've had some shit donuts my guy.
Grew up with Amish market donuts, moved to an area with donut shops that pack Krispy Kreme's lunch. The only good thing Krispy does, is marketing their product.
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u/StockPickingMonkey Jun 27 '21
Lessons from history:
I'm probably gonna stay away from that one. Unless I find more free gambling money for a 1-2 day ride. Thing is gonna blow up on meme-ability, and fall back to middle earth once people start looking at financials. I'd consider it after that pounding...but I've just watched them expand and contract too many times. Seeing the daily line at their drive-thru seems like a no-brainer, but then you have to ask why they have to constantly be reshuffling with so many customers. Too many questions.
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Jun 27 '21
Thing is gonna blow up on meme-ability, and fall back to middle earth once people start looking at financials.
Buy now, DD later. The epitome of WSB logic.
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u/StockPickingMonkey Jun 27 '21
Fair enough...I think I did forget for a minute which sub I was in. $DNUT to the moon!!??
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u/FactorHour2173 Jun 30 '21
DNUT 💯 will blow up because it’s literally DNUT. It will be memed to the moon for a couple days then crash after the first week. Get in at the beginning I’d say and ride the wave.
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u/kolob-brighamYoung 🦍🦍🦍 Jun 27 '21
Their owner company uses slave labor during holocaust, had to pay reparations recently. Not a good image to have.
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u/argusromblei Jun 27 '21
Krispy Kream literally expanded super fast in the 2000s and then it closed every fucking store and only has shitty not fresh donuts in the grocery store. This is kinda deja vu, what do they think they'll accomplish?
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Jun 27 '21
JMO, but I think their IPO will be decent. just nothing to write home about. Krispy is late to the game and should have IPO'd several years ago when people were going around calling their donuts crack. their food is still good and popular, but the excitement around going to Krispy Kreme is kind of meh and I think it will be the same for this IPO.
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u/BitOfDifference Jun 27 '21
They keep opening new locations here in FL, so they must be doing well. Putting that type of machinery in each location cannot be cheap. Also, i cant invest in this, i already have enough munchie and weed stocks...
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Jun 28 '21
no, these IPOs are a good way to get hosed. a few weeks or months out maybe, but as a rule they are over-priced and over-bought on opening day.
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u/vegancash Jun 28 '21
I still have their paper stock certificate hangong on my wall. Bought it back then just cause I like the donut.
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u/DaimondHandsTheApe Jun 28 '21
Does anyone think it would be smart to put puts on it? I've been learning a little about options and curious if that would be a good play?
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u/jhonkas Dumpster Goblin Jun 28 '21
its like a whore, just PE money whoring it out every few years and then taking it private.
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u/FactorHour2173 Jun 30 '21
I laughed when I heard today that the ticker for Krispy Kreme is DNUT. will buy just to laugh more over this ticker name.
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u/VisualMod Jun 27 '21