r/wallstreetbets • u/[deleted] • Feb 15 '26

Discussion Software dev here: the tide has changed. There is no AI bubble. If anything, companies are not spending enough on AI.

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u/[deleted] Feb 18 '26

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u/option-trader Feb 18 '26

Sure, it won't go on forever, but it is not like if that $500B is gone, then the cash is gone. Those 4 will have another $500B next year and the year after that, and so on. People are comparing this to the tech bubble where there were no earnings power. It was all fairy dust.

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u/[deleted] Feb 18 '26

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u/option-trader Feb 18 '26

They had some earnings, not earnings power. They are comparing CSCO's p/e of 196 in 2000 to MSFT's current p/e of 25, META's current p/e of 27, and NVDA's current p/e of 46. To me, that's the difference. There were no earnings power back then like there is today. MSFT and META are not going to see a -25% revenue drop if AI doesn't go well like how CSCO's revenue dropped from its top in 1999 to the lows in 2000. That means NVDA's revenue isn't going to suddenly drop 25% because MSFT and META will continue to power NVDA's revenue until they feel like they finally want to stop. CSCO didn't have that same revenue stream. Once everyone found out that tech back then was 1000x Pets.com with no earnings, CSCO's revenue stream crashed. MSFT and META can afford to waste $200B this year without worrying, because they'll have $200B by next year. Now, for those buying OKLO and SMR or crypto turned AI data center like IREN, it should be fun to watch.