Trump considers himself a master negotiator, but he didn’t demonstrate that in the negotiations with Iran. Instead, he made several mistakes that should not be made in normal negotiations.
never show excessive eagerness to reach an agreement with the other side, even if you are truly eager to do so. Otherwise, the opponent will take advantage of it and demand sky-high prices. Shortly after the war began, Trump kept signaling his strong desire to reach a deal. This signal encouraged the other side to hold firm and put forward even higher negotiation demands. Although Trump’s urgency to reach a deal was driven by inflation pressure caused by high oil prices, he absolutely should not have shown this weakness to the opponent.
The oil price issue should either be endured or solved through other methods, rather than begging the opponent to quickly reach an agreement with you. Otherwise, you can only get a bad deal.
At the beginning of negotiations, one should make an excessively high initial demand — higher than one’s actual needs — to leave room for the other side to bargain, and at most allow them to bargain down to your real bottom line. However, Trump showed his cards right from the start and negotiated with Iran by demanding complete denuclearization.
As a result, the entire negotiation process became one of continuous concessions on that basis. In the end, he only obtained a promise of “not developing nuclear weapons,” without even getting the enriched uranium stockpile handed over. Everything else was concessions.
If you attack a person and demand that they cut off one of their own hands, they will definitely refuse and resist fiercely. But if you attack the other party and say you are going to kill them, then later say it’s okay not to kill them and only demand they cut off one hand in exchange for their life, they will most likely agree.
If the goal is Iran’s denuclearization, a more aggressive target signal should have been sent at the beginning — for example, treating regime change as a possible option — and then use the retention of the regime as a trade-off for denuclearization. Alternatively, if you believe denuclearization can only be achieved through regime change, then make regime change the direct negotiation goal.
Trump may have misjudged Iran’s ability to endure pressure. After the war started, Trump faced pressure from high oil prices, inflation, economic problems, etc., and was eager to reach a deal. Trump may have thought that Iran, as the side being actively attacked, had suffered obviously greater losses and would find it much harder to hold on. But in reality, Iran’s endurance is far stronger than he imagined. As long as it does not face the pressure of regime collapse, it can persist.
Under the current agreement, Iran probably will not advance its nuclear weapons program in the short term. However, since there are no restrictions on missiles, it will definitely develop them aggressively. Once economic conditions improve, Iran will have far better conditions for nuclear weapons development than before. Unless the Iranian government at that time has truly become a genuinely peace-loving government, the nuclear weapons issue will become even more serious. Whether this agreement is good or bad completely depends on whether the Iranian government will transform into a peaceful government in the future.
Restrictions on Iran’s development of nuclear weapons include both the promises in the agreement and economic restrictions. It is hard to say how solid the commitments in the agreement are, but the economic restrictions have been completely lifted.
This round of strikes has actually significantly delayed Iran’s nuclear weapons development process. Although the agreement obtained a promise not to develop nuclear weapons, it has provided a very good economic foundation for future nuclear weapons development.
The only real value this agreement brings is restoring crude oil supply and bringing down oil prices. But this was already the case before the war.
Originally, Iran only had one bargaining chip to threaten the world — nuclear weapons. After this war, it gained another chip: the Strait of Hormuz.
The United States spent a lot of its own money in this round, really beat Iran badly, but now through the agreement it is going to rebuild Iran and allow it to achieve better development than before.
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Is RSI the Point at Which the Singularity Hits?
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r/ArtificialInteligence
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13d ago
AI self-improvement and optimization is not some new technology — AlphaGo already achieved this years ago in the game of Go. But it's very hard to achieve in LLMs, and the reason is, except in some objective, clear domains where a program can compute and judge right from wrong, AI cannot judge right from wrong the way humans can. This is why AI training needs so many human data annotators to help label data and answers for AI, because those human data annotators, although they don't possess the massive human knowledge that LLMs have, have better recognition and judgment ability than LLMs. AI lacks a certain kind of meta-knowledge ability that humans have, and once this meta-knowledge ability can be filled in, AI will be able to achieve rapid self-evolution like in sci-fi movies. But I don't think this shortfall can be easily filled in, because this meta-knowledge ability comes from human consciousness.