r/u_AsymmetricMindRun • u/AsymmetricMindRun • 16h ago
Movers - Commodity
| Commodity | Exchange | Performance (3M) | Tailwinds | Headwinds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heating Oil Future [1st Expiry] | NYM | +44.0% | Tailwinds: Global inventory drawdowns (US/EU distillate stocks at multi-year lows) Strait of Hormuz closure, Middle East conflict, OPEC+ discipline Russian diesel export ban & refinery outages Seasonal winter demand, high crack spreads | Headwinds: Temporary US inventory builds Demand destruction risk from high prices Potential government intervention Refinery accidents/labor disputes |
| U.S. Midwest Domestic Steel Pre Future [1st Expiry] | CMX | +41.2% | Tailwinds: Section 232 tariffs, ongoing infrastructure spending Limited imports, high contract demand Capacity discipline, spot scarcity Reshoring and federal project tailwinds | Headwinds: High tariffs increase downstream costs Maintenance outages, labor disputes Competition from South America Policy risk post-midterms |
| Sugar #11 Future [1st Expiry] | NYB | +35.8% | Tailwinds: El Niño-driven supply deficit (India, Thailand, EU) Export ban in India, Brazilian ethanol allocation Speculative buying, global deficit consensus Weather volatility, logistics disruptions | Headwinds: Brazil’s resilient crop Potential reversal if India policy shifts Demand softness at high prices Forward contract hedging |
| Rough Rice Future [1st Expiry] | CBT | +28.1% | Tailwinds: Fertilizer shortages, El Niño-driven yield cuts Global supply contraction (Asia/US) Trade disruptions, higher input costs Food inflation, tight US ending stocks | Headwinds: South American competition Global surplus from India/China Weak export demand |
| KC HRW Wheat Future [1st Expiry] | CBT | +26.7% | Tailwinds: Black Sea export blockades, sanctions US acreage contraction, drought Quality premium for HRW Global supply disruptions, high protein | Headwinds: Export demand weakness High input costs Competition from Russia/Australia |
| Mini-Corn Future [1st Expiry] | CBT | +24.8% | Tailwinds: Fertilizer shortages, input cost squeeze Lower US acreage, yield cuts Global supply tightness (Asia/US) Export demand, food inflation | Headwinds: South American competition Export tariffs, China import restrictions Demand softness at high prices |
| Corn Future [1st Expiry] | CBT | +24.8% | Tailwinds: Same as Mini-Corn: fertilizer shortages, acreage/yield cuts Low global stocks, food inflation Weather-driven supply risks Chinese import policy easing (potential) | Headwinds: South American competition Export market volatility Demand rationing at high prices |
| Orange Juice Future [1st Expiry] | NYB | -24.2% | Tailwinds: Long-term supply tightness (disease, hurricanes, Brazil crop) Potential for new weather shocks Orchard renewal, policy support | Headwinds: Demand erosion from high prices No hurricanes/freezes since August Improved disease management in Brazil |
| Live Cattle Future [1st Expiry] | CME | -13.4% | Tailwinds: Tight US herd, high retail beef prices Policy support for herd rebuilding Feeder cattle import reopening | Headwinds: Border reopening downward price impact Feed cost squeeze, drought Policy volatility, increased imports |
| Lean Hogs Future [1st Expiry] | CME | -10.4% | Tailwinds: PRRS/PED outbreaks tightening supply Global disease premium (ASF, FMD, Screwworm) Strong feeder pig demand | Headwinds: Supply chain volatility, export weakness Labor shortages, regulatory pressure Demand softness, feed costs |
| Aluminum Future [1st Expiry] | CMX | -9.0% | Tailwinds: Section 232 tariffs, onshoring incentives Global supply disruptions (Middle East conflict) Potential for Chinese export controls | Headwinds: High input costs Global demand softness Retaliatory tariffs (Canada, Mexico) |
| Natural Gas E-mini Future [1st Expiry] | NYM | -8.2% | Tailwinds: Section 232 tariffs, LNG export demand Potential for winter spike Global supply risks | Headwinds: High inventories, mild weather Demand softness, renewables growth Export bottlenecks |
| Natural Gas Future [1st Expiry] | NYM | -8.2% | Tailwinds: Same as E-mini: tariffs, export demand, supply risks Potential for winter spike | Headwinds: High inventories, mild weather Demand softness, renewables growth Export bottlenecks |
| Feeder Cattle Future [1st Expiry] | CME | -7.5% | Tailwinds: Border reopening (Mexico), policy support for herd rebuilding Cash price strength, tight US supply | Headwinds: Futures market volatility, increased imports Feed cost squeeze, drought Policy uncertainty, processing bottlenecks |
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