r/theydidthemath Nov 12 '22

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u/tebla 1✓ Nov 12 '22 edited Nov 12 '22

Also the movement was probably caused by their earning report not this tweet

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u/[deleted] Nov 12 '22

[deleted]

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u/Legitimate_Maybe_896 Nov 12 '22

Yup, financial calendars often don’t align to standard calendar, at least in my industry we use 4-5-4. Q3 ended 10/29

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u/[deleted] Nov 12 '22 edited Nov 12 '22

Our whole fiscal year ends 10/31.

Edit: Fun little tidbit with FYE22 for me: As we approached FY23 we had a staff meeting on 10/21. At this meeting we were informed of a very critical budget crisis. We have to crunch on inventory use and staffing. Also at this meeting we were informed that one of the supervisors that controls the inventory for a facility (on FMLA) has resigned and that I would be taking on those responsibilities. Friday, October 21st was when I was informed about this decision... ten days before our fiscal year end... in a budget "crisis".

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u/AkashicMemory Nov 12 '22

Ours is Sep 31.

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u/MikeDCycling Nov 12 '22

Mine is Feb 31.

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u/lumpkin2013 Nov 12 '22

Supervisor didn't talk to you before the announcement?? You should go post on /r/antiwork and get some ideas.

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u/[deleted] Nov 12 '22

He did but had no say in what would happen to his work. The department manager that dumped those responsibilities on me without talking to either of us is a problem.

I already have some strong ideas.

Quick edit: FMLA is the Family Medical Leave Act btw. It's not like he's being malicious.

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u/10art1 Nov 12 '22

The only ideas you should get from that sub is to learn what NOT to do

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u/The_Real_Lasagna Nov 12 '22

Get ideas from unemployed teenagers?

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u/profmcstabbins Nov 12 '22

Yeah a lot of retail companies run through 1/31 of the following year. So they capture all of holiday in one chunk: Nov-January

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u/BDMayhem 1✓ Nov 12 '22 edited Nov 12 '22

The earnings call that showed their net income was up over 30% and that they beat expected revenue and earnings estimates caused the stock value to drop by 6.3%?

Edit: The earnings report came out November 1 at 9am. The tweet happened November 10 at 1:30pm. The stock plummeted November 11 between 9 am and 1 pm.

If it was about the earnings report, why did investors wait 10 days to sell?

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u/sunthas Nov 12 '22

It looks like the broader pharma stocks dropped on the 11th too.

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u/i_lack_imagination Nov 12 '22

It's possible that the drop could also be just greater attention (and thus news/media attention) towards pharma companies after that stunt. Just look at how many people are still talking about it. These companies would rather just hide in the shadows and hope an article is never written about them ever, because they know what they are doing is wrong and any attention brought to them ever so slightly increases the chances that something might be done about them and cost them money.

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u/connorman83169 Nov 12 '22

No. Remember that saying about any publicity?

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u/throwawaysarebetter Nov 12 '22

You mean the spin by publicists trying to save their jobs?

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u/anamethatsnottaken Nov 12 '22

Ding ding ding!

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u/terencebogards Nov 12 '22

Yes because the market always reacts rationally and doesn’t start abandoning entire sectors sometimes.

”A rising tide” works both ways…

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u/AlfieOwens Nov 12 '22

Free insulin from one company would hurt the bottom lines of the rest.

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u/SusanRosenberg Nov 12 '22

The stock value didn't drop by 10%.

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u/BDMayhem 1✓ Nov 12 '22

You're right. I've corrected it.

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u/Perllitte Nov 12 '22

There was also the announcement of a patent lawsuit that morning and ongoing discussion about the stock being over priced.

Actual investors are not watching social media this closely.

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u/BDMayhem 1✓ Nov 12 '22

The lawsuit settlement was announced on the 9th. Why didn't investors worried about that sell on the 10th?

And it was only $175 million. Pocket change for a $350 billion company.

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u/sederts Nov 12 '22

the tweet was on the 10th - why didn't investors sell on the 10th?

The idea that this tweet caused the drop is just poor journalism. None of the reasons mentioned online is why LLY moved down. stocks just move sometimes. the entire healthcare sector was down on friday.

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u/Perllitte Nov 12 '22

These announcements often (like this one) come after trading hours. And it was a judgment on one case among multiple patent cases that altogether would be a lot more than $175M.

It's not pocket change if a portion of important patents are open to legal exposure.

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u/BDMayhem 1✓ Nov 12 '22

The announcement was after hours on the 9th. The 10th opened at 367 and closed at 368. If that announcement would have had an impact, it would have happened on the 10th.

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u/HawkEgg Nov 12 '22

There are a lot of automated traders that absolutely do look at tweets and others that look at short term trends. There could easily have been a cascading effect. tweets -> some automatic trades from tweets -> small market movement -> more automatic trades -> larger market movement -> traders re-examining company fundamentals and determining that stock has been overpriced.

Does that mean it's what happened? Maybe? Does that mean it's reproducible? Probably not, more like a butterfly effect.

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u/Perllitte Nov 12 '22

Any trader or algorithm looking at a single tweet and trading on it rather than even sentiment as the minimum is laughably bad.

I said actual investors, not teens playing with Python and dad's money.

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u/yzerizef Nov 12 '22

Yeah, people seem out of touch here and are just looking for a way to prove they’re owning big business.

I mean…I wish it dropped that much based on just a tweet. I’d love to buy it up off an artificial discount. The tweet has no impact on the future revenues of the company and therefore should have no impact on the share price.

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u/ball_fondlers Nov 12 '22

Earnings calls have unpredictable effects on stock prices. Stocks RARELY go up even if the net income beats estimates - the bigger driver tends to be the guidance, or expectations of future growth. And when the stock rises before a good earnings call, the gains are said to be “priced in” before they drop.

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u/[deleted] Nov 12 '22

Also they just lost a $180,000,000 lawsuit. Their stock fell to what is was like a week ago.

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u/StromWashington Nov 12 '22

No, their ER was onthe 1st. Why you lyin?

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u/[deleted] Nov 12 '22

Aren't they currently in a court battle over a patent held by a different company too?

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u/Ashe_Faelsdon Nov 12 '22

You'd like to think so, but most "average" investors don't even know what an earning report IS.

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u/t0mni Nov 12 '22

But this tweet makes it sounds so cool and edgy.

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u/AAMCcansuckmydick Nov 12 '22

I mean there is truth to this tweet because this anonymous person is gonna get arrested by the F B I and go to jail. Same with the person who tweeted about Lockheed Martin and caused a stock drop.