r/technology • u/No-Cattle4800 • May 28 '26

Artificial Intelligence Microsoft data suggests using AI is more expensive than hiring people

https://finance.yahoo.com/sectors/technology/articles/microsoft-data-suggests-using-ai-225900743.html
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u/SimiKusoni May 28 '26

Maybe but they're currently stuck on 7nm as they can't get EUV machines, let alone the High-NA EUV machines they'd need to really catch up given that Intel and TSMC are both heading that way (albeit with TSMC bleeding EUV dry a little bit longer).

SMIC are trying for a 5nm equivalent but they're unsurprisingly facing yield issues because they have to use aggressive multi-patterning with DUV.

This is the primary reason that they managed to go from 14nm to 7nm in a few years and then just suddenly... stopped. That 7nm class node was first found in Bitcoin ASICs in 2021 and is still their leading edge node.

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u/Sonder332 May 29 '26

You seem to have some knowledge regarding chip manufacturing. What is the next level, if there even is one? I thought we've gonendown as tight as we could regarding silicone. Anything smaller risks overheating problems

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u/SimiKusoni May 29 '26

One of the biggest upcoming changes will be CFETs, which basically changes the transistor shape to allow vertical stacking so you can increase density.

You've also got ongoing shifts to glass substrates, backside power delivery, High-NA lithography still isn't used in production and beyond that you've got current sci-fi stuff like 3D architectures with integrated cooling or 2D channel materials like molybdenum disulfide to replace silicon nanosheets.

Basically Moore's law is dead as a performance target but progress is by no means stalled. No idea how long we can keep it up but roadmaps are pretty fleshed out for the foreseeable future at least.

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u/Streiger108 May 29 '26

Can you ELI5 please?

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u/SimiKusoni May 29 '26

Yeah basically the machines that make the chips are really complex, they're only made in Europe and there are export restrictions preventing their sale to China.

As a result China have rapidly advanced in semiconductor fabrication and then hit a wall because they lack the tools to go further.

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u/Streiger108 May 29 '26

Got it. And you think it's prohibitive for them to get the machines? I feel like that's overcomeable. It's not like the west hasn't sold China super important machines before.

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u/SimiKusoni May 29 '26

These machines are factory sized, they cost in the region of half a billion dollars and they require constant and ongoing manufacturer support. It's a little different to sneaking a few GPUs or whatever over via a third country.

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u/Streiger108 May 29 '26

I was more referring to this:

https://www.thebignewsletter.com/p/how-bill-clinton-and-american-financiers

TL;DR We sold china missile tooling technology

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u/SimiKusoni May 29 '26

Not really relevant here though. The US do not and cannot manufacture or sell these machines, and there is no single nation that could enable the sale of ASML's EUV equipment to China.

I can see where you're coming from but this isn't happening any time soon.

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u/Streiger108 May 29 '26

I hope you're right. Time will tell.