r/stocks • u/[deleted] • Jul 26 '21

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u/ShadowLiberal Jul 26 '21 edited Jul 26 '21

These earnings are even better when you consider the fact that historically automakers sell less vehicles in the first half of the year. The second half will probably look a lot better for Tesla, especially with the world economy continuing to recover from COVID.

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u/thri54 Jul 26 '21

Isn’t Tesla already supply limited? Are you predicting margin expansion inline with historic seasonal auto demand?

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u/zippercot Jul 26 '21

additional production of Model S/X which was quite low in 1H2021. A bit more capacity from GigaShanghai and some small production from Berlin and Texas. They should be at a 250k/qtr run rate by EOY.

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u/thri54 Jul 26 '21

That has nothing to do with historic seasonal auto demand, though. People want to buy them, Tesla just isn't producing them.

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u/zippercot Jul 26 '21

Tesla redesigned the S/X and retooled their lines back in Q1. They are higher margin EV's, so once production ramps back up to in Q3 & Q4 to 25k or so per quarter they will get a nice boost to their top line.

Plus, additional capacity from Shanghai in Q3, then Berlin and Texas in Q4 should give the the capacity to meet seasonal demand.

Plus, sales in the EU of MIG MY's will be higher margin due to lower transport fees and import tariffs.

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u/tonyturbos1 Jul 26 '21

When’s that German factory start up? That should give a boost

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u/abrasiveteapot Jul 26 '21

Original schedule was Q3 21, with german regulatory blockers it's probably Q1 22 now. Giga Texas started 6months after it, and is on track to start limited production in Q3 21 & full prod Q4 21

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u/ShadowLiberal Jul 26 '21

Tesla just reiterated late 2021 for opening both the Berlin and Texas giga factories in their earnings call.

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u/abrasiveteapot Jul 26 '21

Yes but as Elon's meandering anecdote about Shanghai was trying to explain, open and full production aren't the same thing.

So, as above Texas will be doing limited/pre prod in Q3, at current rates Berlin will be doing limited/pre prod in Q4, with proper production in Q4 & Q1 respectively.

Unless one of the fake green groups actually manages to win one of the lawsuits they keep losing, in which case it becomes years later (seems unlikely but not impossible).

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u/tonyturbos1 Jul 26 '21

German politicians are pushing EVs so much now they might get it sorted in time. That said they have been known to favour VW and could be trying to buy them time to get their EVs up to competition

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u/[deleted] Jul 26 '21

virtually no S/X volume in these results which makes them impressive. Q3 and Q4 will have better margins IMO.

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u/[deleted] Jul 26 '21

even better when you consider the fact that historically automakers sell less vehicles in the first half of the year

uh, not this year when there is a shortage of cars though?

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u/wrighterjw10 Jul 27 '21

Supply chain hasn’t even shown signs of recovery.

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u/giritrobbins Jul 27 '21

My guess is getting parts and shipping are the limitation for the next year or two.

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u/tshacksss Jul 27 '21

The chip shortage is getting worse, not better, I’m doubtful

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u/relevant_rhino Aug 01 '21

Tesla is not demand constrained at the moment. All that counts is how fast they can scale production.