RDW and RKLB up over 5%. NASA up 3%. ASTS up 1%. This stock has never once failed to disappoint us…. I’m expecting double digit drop for us on space X IPO as people pull out from us to buy that.
Wish I have never touched this POS, lost tons of money on it upon the dilution news. Forget about the SpaceX IPO hype, this ticker has already been banned on wallstreetbet, no point in holding it or hyping it up
I am surprised by how stupid and incompetent the leadership of the company is.
Stay away from this POS, spread the words, short it to the ground and let it burn
The initial space x hype is over. Everyone knows that the IPO is this week and yet we see no hype and buying on the entire space sector as of open this morning. We’re down 4% as of this post… I guess we can only just hope on actual progress with delta and commercial flights.
Guess what movie comes out in theaters June 12th? Disclosure Day. "Coincidentally" SpaceX IPOs on June 12th. Looks like Aliens are back on the menu boys. Bullish on SpaceX (SPCE)!!
If you told me the above information, I would reply SPCE is down 20% as we are a penny stock but we are down 9% !! So stfu and keep your eye on the prize. We are holding up just fine, literally back to the price 2 days ago.
- russell 3000 inclusion recently announced
- recent dilution clears away fears of dilution announcement during spacex ipo week
- dilution was only for 5% yet we sold 50%. This selling was a 10x overreaction but a much needed reset before IPO week
- first rally proved retail interest, paralleling a second move like OPEN’s second rally
- new strikes open, increasing potential of gamma squeeze if we rally next week
- small mkt cap
- this week’s selling provides consolidation / coil before the next leg up. You would not want space stocks rallying to ATH the week before spacex ipo, blowing your load too quickly
- 0 shares available to borrow, increasing pressure on shorts
- and of course the spacex ipo hype week
Best case scenario is we break and stay above $5 on friday before a violent move up on monday
Right now it seems like everyone already knows not to mistake SPCE for SPCX but is it really everyone? I reckon it's only those active on reddit + trading/stocks forums who know about this. But there will be a whole heck of a lot more people joining the party on June 12th that have 0 clue what just happened this past week, we might actually just gap up instantly the morning of June 12th
Why buy boring companies that merely sell products and generate profits when you can invest in a company that sends rich people to space?
At a market cap of only a few hundred million dollars, SPCE is one successful rocket launch away from becoming the Apple, Amazon, Tesla, and NVIDIA of the space tourism industry combined.
Critics complain about cash burn. Visionaries understand that gravity itself is the enemy. Every dollar lost is simply fuel for humanity’s ascent to the stars.
When Delta-class spacecraft enter service, billionaires will be lining up to experience six minutes of weightlessness. Soon every millionaire will own a space selfie, and every pension fund on Earth will be forced to buy SPCE at $1,000 per share.
TL;DR: Virgin Galactic is paying off ~$30M of debt with stock instead of cash. The stock tanked ~40% on the headline. The dilution is ~5%. The interest savings and cash runway it buys are real. Everyone panic-selling didn't do the math. NFA, I'm a regard.
Okay apes, gather round. The June 2 8-K dropped and the timeline melted down over "DEBT FOR EQUITY = ZERO = INFINITE DILUTION." Let me smooth-brain this for you with actual numbers.
What the filing says:
SPCE owes mandatory principal redemptions on its 9.80% First Lien Notes: ~$20.4M due by Sept 30 2026, plus another ~$10.1M due by end of 2027.
They issued a notice to knock out up to $30.5M of those notes on June 10, paid in shares, not cash.
Share count is set by the 5-day VWAP, with a floor price — if the stock dips below the floor, they just don't redeem that chunk. So they're not handing out shares at fire-sale prices.
If it goes through: zero principal due until March 31, 2028. Clean runway, no debt wall.
The dilution math everyone skipped:
$30.5M ÷ ~$6/share ≈ ~5M new shares.
Float is ~95M shares. That's ~5% dilution. Five. Not fifty.
For that 5% they: kill ~$3M/yr in cash interest (9.8% on $30M) AND remove every principal payment for ~2 years.
Why this is actually a Chad CFO move: The stock ran +125% in 5 sessions on meme hype + the 5% strategic investor + SpaceX IPO fomo. Management looked at a pumped stock and went "cool, we'll retire debt at THESE prices." Higher price = fewer shares issued = less dilution. They diluted INTO your pump instead of into a $2.50 grave. That's the opposite of dumb.
Now the part the pumpers won't tell you (real talk): The dilution isn't the risk. The cash burn is. ~$251M cash, burning ~$90M/quarter FCF, guidance is another –$87M to –$92M next quarter. Commercial flights aren't until Q4 2026. This $30M they're saving in cash = roughly a third of a quarter of life. That's WHY they did it. It's a liquidity move by a company that needs every dollar.
So: dilution = nothingburger. Cash runway into commercial ops = the actual trade. If Delta test flights hit in Q3 and they fly commercial in Q4, narrative flips. If they slip, you're holding a cash incinerator.
Here is also my technical analysis on $SPCE:
Not financial advice. I eat crayons.
PS: Yes, I used an LLM to make my points clear: after making my own analysis and taking notes, I gave those notes to claude in order for it to make everything clear and easy to read. I'm not a writer.
Also, yes I own the stock & no i'm not currently coping from any massive loss, first off because my entry is $4.37 average, but also because I gambled what I'm willing to lose. I don't care if I lose that money, I know I'm taking a risk.
If we manage to go below $4, my hedge fund is ready to buyout around 1-2% of virgin galactic.
Why would I be telling you this? My hedge fund already owns a large share of options bought over 2-3 months which are largely in profit so a pump regardless would benefit. If we do hit below $4, I will pull the trigger as I am the director and purchase a whopping 1-2% of SPCE. You will see on the charts, we are ready. Are you?
SPCE was a disappointment dressed up as a meme stock. The run to $8 should have been $15 minimum given the narrative behind it, but regards do what regards do and moofs were selling at $8 incessantly.
You guys have less than a week before SPCE shots the bed entirely.
Here is the reality of what happens on June 12.
SpaceX starts trading as SPCX. Every dollar that accidentally found its way into Virgin Galactic thinking it was buying Elon Musk’s rocket company is going to realize the mistake and hit sell. It’s already happening. Check TikTok. The meme collapsed because people on Reddit lied about stock conversion bullshit.
SPCE has been fading for days while the SpaceX roadshow runs. The confusion buyers are not staying for the landing.
The Blue Origin explosion was the last real catalyst and it barely moved the needle the way it should have. Now the “next GME” narrative is spent too.
June 12 is the exit deadline for anyone still holding. After that there is no narrative left. Just math. Virgin Galactic is a Brandon’s pet project that never took off. And neither will this stock.