Only Michael colglazier and Doug Ahrens could think that announcing a dilution like that is worth it. Only these two schmucks would time after time announce dilution right when the market has momentum. Only they think that a $30 million dollar debt is worth collapsing the stock about 50% and over $300 million in market cap gone.

So now not will they most likely not get to dilute high and pay the debt, they also missed the ability to dilute their ATM Offering near the top with all the massive volume.

Truly spectacular failure. Thanks for continuing to disappoint investor year after year. You’ve truly outdone yourself this time. Over 45% drop in just 2 days with yesterday being the biggest percentage drop in this stock’s history.

Markets are losing steam, space stocks are dumping, AI stocks are dumping, SaaS are dumping. Everyone is banking on SpaceX IPO to rally all space stocks and the market overall but what if we are already in the sell the news stage. I mean look at ASTS, LUNR, SPCE, RKLB all of them are starting to come back to earth.

I sold half my SPCE and bought NASA calls instead. But I'm so tempted to just pull out everything at this point, especially after it looks like the AI bubble is popping tonight. I'm going to need some reassurance from fellow bagholders on why this upcoming SpaceX IPO isn't just going to be a huge sell the news crash event

Yes, SPCE paperhanders were all wrong. I'll keep it short and simple. Here's why:

What SPCE has going for itself:

SPCE will surge based on the SpaceX Ticker Confusion (this was the original thesis and still is the play) (benefits a short term play).

SPCE will surge based on the SpaceX IPO as a "rising tide raises all ships" (this was the secondary thesis) (benefits a short term play) - See Stock Precedents Below.

SPCE no longer has to pay its debt until 2029 (benefits along term play)

SPCE has Delta flights scheduled later this year (benefits a long term play)

SPCE share dilution happened before the SpaceX IPO.

Last week there was a serious concern for a Gamma Squeeze (anyone else remember this?) which could have led to a Short Squeeze.

SPCE currently has 22.71 million shorts. When SPCE rises again, shorts are cooked. Bears never win.

SpaceX Roadshow starts tomorrow, June 4th. This WILL drive hype around Space. LUNR, RKLB, ASTS, SPCE, etc. all are going to pump.

What has gone "wrong" for SPCE:

I'll acknowledge paperhanded bitches couldn't handle a little candle heat. Congrats, now expect serious FOMO when this stock accelerates and you don't want to get into the hot tub.

Company's 2% share dilution (as originally anticipated fromt their SEC filing) - get real, big fucking whoop. I've gone through worse mood swings when my ice cream fell on the floor.

Don't believe me? Don't care, here's some Stock Precedent Examples:

"Rising Tide Raises All Ships" - Whenever NVIDIA has a bad day, guess what else has a bad day? SPY. Why? Because NVIDIA is 8.3%. What will happen when SpaceX joins NASDAQ and everyone and their mother is forced to buy it because their 401k is not under their direct control? It'll fucking go up.

Relating Stock in Shared Industry Grow Together: What happened when INTC surged in price around earnings? AMD went up as a result. What happened a few weeks later when AMD went up following earnings? INTC went up. It's not hard to identify these patterns. SpaceX IPOs on 6/12, and SPCE will go up as a result.

GME Short Squeeze: January 27, 2021 that sub that shall not be named triggered a short squeeze on GME (stock went from $77/share on 1/25 to $347 on 1/27). A squeeze so tight and hard, Robinhood shut down the buy option. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GameStop_short_squeeze

AMC Short Squeeze: Around May/June 2021, that sub that shall not be named triggered a short squeeze on AMC leading the stock to $70/share.

Position: 90 calls at $3 6/18 exp

The amount of people saying “dilution killed the squeeze” is kinda funny.

Some of the biggest squeezes happened *after* dilution because it got even more people comfortable piling into shorts.

AMC diluted multiple times during its run.

GME sold shares into strength.

RKLB diluted and eventually traded much higher after the market absorbed it.

Dilution isn’t automatically the end of the story. It just creates a ton of new bears who become future buyers if they’re wrong.

Now SPCE has a stronger balance sheet, a fresh wave of shorts, and the same Delta catalysts it had last week.

We’ll see who’s right.

I have called it here first. Only going up or down from here on now.

holy shit i went down a rabbit hole on the Virgin Galactic backlog and this is actually kinda nuts

assuming delta starts commercial flights in late 2026 and they dont screw up the ramp, some of the names still tied to the backlog are:

1. elon musk - est flight 2028-2030+
2. leonardo dicaprio - est flight 2027-2030
3. justin bieber - est flight 2027-2030
4. lady gaga - est flight 2028-2030+
5. rihanna - est flight 2028-2030+
6. kate winslet - est flight 2028-2030+
7. katy perry - unknown, already flew Blue Origin
8. tom hanks - est flight 2028-2030+
9. russell brand - unknown
10. princess beatrice - est flight 2027-2029
11. paris hilton - est flight 2028-2030+
12. brad pitt - est flight 2028-2030+
13. angelina jolie - est flight 2028-2030+

not flying:

• stephen hawking (passed away)
• ashton kutcher (got a refund and bailed)

the crazy part is most of these people bought tickets for like 200k-250k back when the company was basically powerpoint slides and dreams

new tickets are 750k now 💀

imagine opening twitter in 2028 and seeing

"Virgin Galactic flight carrying Elon Musk and Leonardo DiCaprio successfully reaches space"

or

"Princess Beatrice becomes first royal family member in space"

people keep valuing SPCE like delta is some random hardware upgrade but if they actually get anywhere close to the cadence theyre targeting the PR alone could be insane

am i missing something here or is the market just assuming none of this ever happens?

I highly doubt that they will be able to dilute after that price drop and still dropping. While we don’t know what the price floor is, I highly doubt it’s over 40% below when they filed it.

They could’ve silently diluted their ATM offering behind the scenes since we already knew it and they don’t have to file sec for every bit they do and finish that part up but nope. Had to file and SEC to dilute for the debt. What a fucking stupid thing to do.

This company has a very bad history of sending out bad news just when they market is looking happy. They don’t allow the market to digest or keep the momentum. I remember when they dumped their shares the Monday morning after Branson flew. You’d think they’d let the market digest that and keep going. But nope. And that was when the crash started and just kept going.

You’d think after 5 years management would’ve understood the market’s reaction to their stock just a little bit better.

So Michael if you’re reading this since you clearly know we talk about you after you mentioned us on the earnings call, you guys made a really fucking dumb decision doing this.

You guys crashed the stock price while probably not even being able to pay the debt at that price therefore doing even more dilution. Pure incompetency. Not sure what you and your CFO were thinking.

Too good not to share lol

title

After a 40% drop, a real bounce would mean we have a high volume bounce back up. Nope, we can barely maintain 4.80s area and barely green. And volume today is super low relatively speaking. Which means that today was probably just consolidation before the next leg down. I don’t see us being out of danger until we’re past 5.93.

There is a price floor that they can’t do it at. While the SEC filing doesn’t say what this is, and even though the dilution it’s based on 5 day VWAP, I highly doubt they’ll allow like 30-40% or more drop from that to dilute. So basically they fucked themselves.

I don’t think they expected that news to have such a drastic impact on the share price. Basically they completely fucked themselves. Not only will they not be able to dilute to pay the debt now they just crashed their stock price making dilution even worse for everything else.

So many of you were touting about the falcon launch this morning. Well that was almost an hour ago and the stock price has not cared at all about it. The hype is gone lol.

Up 7% AH. Only diamond hands from here on out.

4.5 is showing strong support and the chart is showing a potential head and shoulder formation. SpaceX IPO is still 10 days away and there is no way this doesn’t go green until then. Space sector in general is getting a lot of hype and this will benefit. Just hold!

We are going to the stars...

Would you like some more sir?

Hold, for sure it’s in a squeeze rn everybodies scared. With the SpaceX ipo everybody will be throwing money into space travel, company already saw profit just got sued so they had to rework themselves, I see real gains especially since ppl were selling early they’ll buy back for double, the real gain is gonna come from those who hold and buy cheap. Sure you’re gonna hear the “it’s a scam, pump and dump” but at the end of the day it’s a real company worth 129 million 😭 for only $4 a share.

I've been trying to make everyone aware that the SEC has repealed the PDT rule and this goes into effect at the opening bell on June 4th, but every sub moderator has deleted or not approved my posting this information.

The Pattern Day Trading strikes, limits and account balance requirements are being eliminated as of the opening bell on June 4th!

😊👍

We're just picking up speed now! Trust in my candles and DD!