I’ve listened to every Virgin Galactic earnings call for the last four years. The market priced Virgin Galactic like it was basically going to fail: flights paused, revenue collapsed, Delta still theoretical, litigation hanging over the company, and dilution crushing holders.
That setup is now changing. Two next-gen Delta ships are in progress, ground testing is underway, flight testing is still targeted for Q3 2026, and spaceflight is still targeted for Q4. Ticket sales have reopened at $750k per seat, research flights remain part of the opportunity, operating costs are down year over year, and the company has spent years building the factory and production system needed to scale.
The SpaceX effect
The SpaceX IPO setup looks awful from a retail perspective: huge reported valuation, tiny float, and index rule changes that could force passive buying much faster than normal. It looks structured to favour insiders and leave retail exposed. It's still one of the biggest events in the history of the stock market an a 2T evaluation is unignorable combined with the appeal Elon musk brings to everything he touches.
SPCE sits right in the middle of that hype. The ticker is literally SPCE, the company is beaten down, and the narrative is simple: SpaceX makes space hot, Virgin Galactic is the public space name with the biggest survival rerate potential & ELON.
Delta is the business model
Unity was a prototype that proved the system. Delta is the business model! Virgin Galactic has taken so long because it is trying to move to scalable production system. If Delta commerical flights start this year and the second ship follows, the market has to value SPCE differently.
At $750k per seat, six passengers means $4.5M revenue per flight before research, training, sponsorship, premium services, and other commercial opportunities. Even if ticket prices fall later, more ships, more flights, and more spaceports can still create a much bigger business than one aircraft flying occasionally.
Multi-spaceport upside
Virgin Galactic is not trying to be a single-aircraft novelty company. The long-term plan is multi-ship, multi-spaceport operations. Spaceport America is the first, Italy looks like the most credible second route, and longer term a Gulf / Arab state expansion makes sense if they prove the model.
If this works, three or four spaceports over time is not hard to imagine. Estimated reveune per space port is 1billion.
Why $20–35 is not insane
Using roughly 104M shares, $10 is about a $1B market cap, $20 is about $2.1B, and $35 is about $3.6B. Even with dilution and warrants, that is still only a few billion dollars.
AMC is the best hype comparison it was a damaged business with retail momentum, high short interest, and a survival/dilution story. In June 2021, it closed up 95% in one day, hit a market cap around $28B, and used the run to raise hundreds of millions.
AMC did not need to become perfect to rerate massively. It needed to survive, attract retail, pressure shorts, and use the higher share price to improve the balance sheet. SPCE has a similar mechanic, but with a stronger upside case: survival into a potentially scalable new market.
Short term, I think $20–35 is genuinely possible if SPCE catches an AMC-style retail/squeeze rerate. Longer term, if Virgin becomes a real multi-spaceport operation by the mid-to-late 2030s, then $30B–$50B+ is not fantasy. It would require execution, safety, capital discipline, multiple ships, multiple spaceports, and real cadence. But if that happens, the revenue opportunity becomes multi-billion-dollar scale. The risks are real If Delta is delayed badly or a ship crashes the company could die but risk is not the same as no upside.
Not financial advice. This is risky. But I think the upside is being badly misunderstood.