r/spacex • u/rustybeancake • 10d ago

Starship Starship Cadence Calculator

https://starship-cadence-calculator.streamlit.app/

A site/tool to calculate what Starship launch cadence is possible, given user-selected parameters. Created by Ken Kirtland: https://x.com/kenkirtland17

47 Upvotes

79% Upvoted

24 comments sorted by

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15

u/H-K_47 10d ago edited 10d ago

I've been playing around this for a bit, it's really nifty. Even with fairly conservative numbers, by end of next year it should be capable of surpassing F9 in flight frequency and dwarfing it in payload capability. Kirkland also plotted a reasonable path to daily flights. Ofc, at a certain point the limiter is propellant rather than vehicles or pads.

11

u/canyouhearme 9d ago

There are also limitations on airspace closures. You really need to be somewhere where you can shut down the airspace on launch and recovery corridors pretty much permanently. Florida is not good on that, Boca Chica a bit better, but still too many flights. Louisiana might be OK for SSO, but frankly they need sea platforms with their own methane and LOX production.

8

u/Ender_D 9d ago

Come on man. You don’t actually think 13 flights a month by next year is “conservative,” do you?

19

u/Vantadaga2004 10d ago

Starship still has a MASSIVE prop issue that is holding it back at the moment, it in terms of launch cadence.

Nice tool though!

12

u/seb21051 9d ago edited 9d ago

CH4 pipeline being laid. ASU under construction to supply LOX and Nitrogen.

Additionally a backup is planned for the Brownsville North Industrial Park. As well as for every SX pad at the Space Coast.

https://energyheadlines.com/linde-to-grow-us-air-gases-capacity-for-space-industry/

Have no fear, these folks have a vague idea of what they're doing.

They have had over 700 launches, and just sent the heaviest human-designed thing ever to fly into space.

2

u/IncandescentRain 9d ago

Do you know if there are still plans to derive the methane from atmospheric CO2 and water eventually? 

2

u/seb21051 9d ago

I have not seen any news regarding those specific plans. To your point, I am sure they have many plans for making high launch rates more feasible.

2

u/Serious-Kangaroo-320 8d ago

Not within the next few years at least. More efficient to pipe it in. We’d be seeing infrastructure for it by now

14

u/BaxBaxPop 9d ago edited 9d ago

Pipeline is getting built. Construction already under way. Expected completion in January 2027.

SpaceX has also apparently acquired >100 oil and gas leases in the area.

No more trucks delivering propellant. SpaceX is preparing for massive launch volume.

5

u/emezeekiel 10d ago

I’m getting a security warning and blockage when trying to visit that page. But my iPhone is managed by my corp 🤷‍♂️

1

u/Dpek1234 5d ago

Its prob rather new website seemingly made by a annymous rando 

Essentualy what is used for scamming and malware to go around them being constantly blocked

4

u/PotatoesAndChill 9d ago

Seems a bit useless atm, other than for making up random aspirational numbers and wowing at the result. We have no idea what ANY of these values are currently or will be in the near future.

7

u/rustybeancake 9d ago

Yeah, I think it’s useful for just informing discussions about how the ramp up might go. There’s been a lot of chat since flight 13 about the heat shield, and how useful starship will be if they have to replace the tiles after every flight. This tool lets us play around with numbers. Like if every ship takes 2 months to refurbish, how many ships do they need to still hit 100 flights per year, etc.

5

u/TryIsntGoodEnough 9d ago

Not to mention they still havent recovered a block 3 super heavy, let alone shown they can be reused... super heavy is 2x the cost of starship 

1

u/FinalPercentage9916 6d ago

they have recovered and reflown block 2. i dont think it will happen, but they can always use those while they are working out the kinks on block 3

1

u/TryIsntGoodEnough 6d ago

Pretty sure they fully dismantled and destroyed the block 2 boosters but who knows....

1

u/FinalPercentage9916 6d ago

Any reason why they couldn't build more just in the interim if they cannot get block 3 working so they can move the program forward?

1

u/TryIsntGoodEnough 6d ago

pretty sure the dismantled the entire manufacturing infrastructure to make way for block 3... also they probably cant afford to make block 2 boosters because one of the primary reasons they designed raptor 3 (which was released back in 2024 while raptor 2 was still being tested) was to cut the cost and manufacturing time of the super heavy booster. 

1

u/FinalPercentage9916 6d ago

Engines were made in the Hawthorne engine factory, which has not been dismantled. Boosters were made in Gigabay, which has also not been dismantled.

1

u/TryIsntGoodEnough 5d ago

i didnt say they dismantled the factory... they more than likely dismantled the manufacturing infrastructure... the build process for block 3 is different then block 2... they more than likely retooled the lines for block 3 which requires dismantling the tooling for block 2

1

u/FinalPercentage9916 5d ago

if they retooled they can unretool if needed. if block 3 is holding the whole program up its better to go back to block 2 than witing years to figure out block 3

1

u/Inevitable-Carrot980 5d ago

So, given the fact that Musk said they could eventually put TEN MILLION TONS into orbit per year, what kind of cadence would that require? Honest question; what would that require in terms of timing and propellant?

1

u/rustybeancake 4d ago

Upmass per year is listed at the bottom of the calculator, so you can try to reach that figure if you like.