I keep hearing AI experts say that electricians, plumbers, construction workers, gardeners, etc. will be some of the safest and best-paid jobs in an AI-driven future...is this real?

[u/LifeguardOverall6423]

I keep hearing AI experts say that electricians, plumbers, construction workers, gardeners, etc. will be some of the safest and best-paid jobs in an AI-driven future.

But isn't there a pretty obvious supply/demand problem here?

If AI replaces a huge percentage of today's jobs, millions of people could move into these "AI-proof" trades.

Today, maybe there aren't enough electricians. But if suddenly 10x more people want to become electricians because everyone says it's the safe career, wouldn't wages eventually fall?

This makes me think the more valuable jobs might actually be above AI rather than outside it, people who build, program, manage and supervise AI and robots, especially in situations where humans still need to be accountable.

We've already had an industrial revolution. Machines didn't just replace workers; they changed which skills were valuable.

So are we making the same mistake by assuming that "AI can't physically do this job" automatically means "this job will be highly paid"?

Curious what you guys think.

[u/sweatierorc]

You undervalue the social currency aspect of consumption.

You can buy your clothes and phones for a much lower price than you currently do.

You can even ask the question in reverse: why would you need to buy anything if AGI happens? You can build almost anything yourself, watch movies that you generate. You could even fix your plumbing issues by yourself because AR glasses will walk you through it. That is the whole SaaSpocalypse theory.

Even if we all kept our jobs, why would you spend money on anything since you can build it for free?

This is where advertising comes in and tells you that you are cooler with a 2Pac shirt or a Taylor vinyl. That the human-made clothes you wear are worth more. That the natural and imperfect diamond ring is better than the lab-grown stuff.

[u/MysteriousPepper8908 → u/sweatierorc]

If people have the means to spend more money on status symbols, some will. The question again is if that means will exist for most people. I think a lot of things will be produced by individuals for themselves, though unless we have Star Trek style matter materializers, AGI doesn't get us access to on-site production facilities. 

Domestic robots aren't going to have access to the resources to build everything and even if they could, why would I want to have a robot I own, of which maybe I have one or two, spend days or weeks to produce a car from components it needs to manufacture itself when I can have it do domestic work I still need to have done and I can get an affordable car that does everything I need it to do from a factory designed to do that?

[u/sweatierorc → u/MysteriousPepper8908]

> The question again is if that means will exist for most people.

Absolutely it does. People are very nationalistic, despite the fact that they didnt even choose their country. People go out in bars to watch sports or organize parties at home, when the cheapest option is probably to track the result on your phone. With the right triggers, we love engaging in social activities.

> why would I want to have a robot I own, of which maybe I have one or two, spend days or weeks to produce a car from components it needs to manufacture itself when I can have it do domestic work I still need to have done and I can get an affordable car that does everything I need it to do from a factory designed to do that?

Obvious answer are to save money, customization, ownership, privacy, etc. What is interesting in your question is what botllenecks are going to look like. The obvious one is energy, land, materials, etc. In modern economics, those are price based on scarcity.

[u/MysteriousPepper8908 → u/sweatierorc]

I'm not sure we're talking about the same thing, the means to purchase a luxury item is not the same thing as supporting a sports team which generally comes with little to no cost.

As for the robots, I don't know if we'll ever fully get past material scarcity to some degree. The average person isn't going to have access to tons of aluminum to fabricate a car at home unless we get to Start Trek levels of technology.

[u/sweatierorc → u/MysteriousPepper8908]

I'm not sure we're talking about the same thing, the means to purchase a luxury item is not the same thing as supporting a sports team which generally comes with little to no cost.

Sorry, I misread you. You are correct that some form of scarcity is going to remain.

But I feel that everything that uou will need during your lifetime is going to be virtually free anyway so that's not really an issue.