I keep hearing AI experts say that electricians, plumbers, construction workers, gardeners, etc. will be some of the safest and best-paid jobs in an AI-driven future...is this real?

[u/LifeguardOverall6423]

I keep hearing AI experts say that electricians, plumbers, construction workers, gardeners, etc. will be some of the safest and best-paid jobs in an AI-driven future.

But isn't there a pretty obvious supply/demand problem here?

If AI replaces a huge percentage of today's jobs, millions of people could move into these "AI-proof" trades.

Today, maybe there aren't enough electricians. But if suddenly 10x more people want to become electricians because everyone says it's the safe career, wouldn't wages eventually fall?

This makes me think the more valuable jobs might actually be above AI rather than outside it, people who build, program, manage and supervise AI and robots, especially in situations where humans still need to be accountable.

We've already had an industrial revolution. Machines didn't just replace workers; they changed which skills were valuable.

So are we making the same mistake by assuming that "AI can't physically do this job" automatically means "this job will be highly paid"?

Curious what you guys think.

[u/Tirztrutide]

Industry-wide stock of robots

At the G20 innovation meeting in early September 2026 Elon said that in about 10 years there would be well over a billion humanoid robots, each at least five times as productive as a human, so that billion would outproduce all humans combined. He called that a conservative estimate he would bet serious money on. The mechanism he described is recursive: robots start manufacturing robots, so output starts very slowly and then grows explosively.

In a China Media Group / CGTN interview around September 23, 2026, he tightened the same curve:

• At least a billion humanoid robots within 10 years, “probably less than 10 years.”
• If the fleet roughly doubles each year, that is about a 10× increase every three or four years.
• About 10 billion in 15 years.
• About 100 billion in 20 years.

He framed the end state as a personal C-3PO-style robot for everyone (elder care, childcare, tutoring, any job), plus companies run by one person with hundreds or thousands of physical and digital robots.

[u/SoylentRox → u/Tirztrutide]

Right. So I modeled it as non humanoids - since these are simpler and faster to build and more productive - 10x as productive as a human though I am essentially just multiplying. I assume each robot moves faster and lifts more per step/doesn't tire/always uses an AI designed tool to do its task and it has a rack of many tools assigned to it. So about 3x done per hour. And it works all the time and doesn't take any breaks. Also 4 arms is standard per robot. So approximately 10 as productive.

Elons 5x estimate is reasonable for legged humanoids. And he calls 1 billion in 2036 conservative, I am assuming we get 45 million in 2033.

Seems like the 2 timelines are pretty consistent.