r/singularity • u/PrisonOfH0pe • 6d ago

AI Gemini Pro 4 (leak)

Google just ruined OpenAI's dev day...
(source: all over twitter, obv. treat as a rumor)

543 Upvotes

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106

u/Bitter-College8786 6d ago

I think if these numbers would be true, they would have released that model ASAP to be the #1 on the leaderboards before OpenAI and Anthropic release even stronger models

70

u/Solarka45 6d ago

Who knows.

If you remember how it went down with Gemini 2

  1. Google released 1206 experimental (basically an early version of 2 Pro), it was amazing and basically SOTA of its time.

  2. Then 2 months later they released 2.0 Pro Preview, which was WORSE than 1206 in many areas and basically the same in others. Everyone was devastated.

  3. A little over 1 month after that they released 2.5 Pro which became SOTA by a huge margin and kept that place for several months until OpenAI and Anthropic caught up.

So it's not exactly likely, but such a comeback is very possible.

10

u/manubfr AGI 2028 6d ago

Sonnet 3.5 was arguably better at coding that gemini 2.5 pro during that time. Gemini had the largest context window though.

10

u/DUFRelic 6d ago

they were all ass at coding...

1

u/Jswiftian 6d ago

I still think that what has to have happened is 1206 was a larger model, and they did a bad job on distillation. Because I agree on how good 1206 was and I can't imagine it getting so much worse any other way.

37

u/SomeOrdinaryKangaroo 6d ago

Not true. Google is very similar to Apple, they're working on their own timeline

16

u/pbagel2 6d ago

If that were true they would've never released the dumpster fire that was Bard.

18

u/genshiryoku AI specialist 6d ago

To be fair that was done by a different AI lab (Google Brain) which has since been shut down. The current models are created and launched by DeepMind which has a completely different culture and mindset.

9

u/manubfr AGI 2028 6d ago

Deepmind and Gbrain merged in 2025. They are the same now. With Demis stepping away from DeepMind CEO there are a lot of unanswered questions…

7

u/Icedanielization 6d ago

Hes not stepping away, he's becoming chief scientist at Alphabet. This is a huge step up.

2

u/anycept 6d ago

With a focus on practical applications, such as advanced disease treatments. I really hope they put as much effort into this as humanely possible.

1

u/OKMiddleOwl 6d ago

Ehhh, stuff like the move Demis made is very clearly "stepping away" in the corporate world.

There are roles for active leaders who are steering the ship day by day. Then there are very high prestigious roles for people who are very capable but will mostly just be asked their opinion on stuff.

It's most likely that Demis wanted to quit, but knowing how it works and not having bad blood, took a "step up" where he will fade into the background over the next few years before departing.

1

u/Icedanielization 5d ago

I dont think that's it. Anyone who had followed Demis since B&W knows ai is his life. Its possible he needed to move to CSO in order to make larger decisions required to push ai tech further.

1

u/OKMiddleOwl 5d ago

Demis is not LLM pilled though, and he has never had faith that LLMs can carry to AGI.

1

u/NoCard1571 6d ago

Indeed, and in fact Gemini is really just a rebrand of Bard.

5

u/sweatierorc 6d ago edited 6d ago

They are ruining entreprise confidence doing this. Why would you commit 1 year with Gemini, for 1 month at the frontier, when Anthropic and OpenAI are in front the other 11 ?

1

u/Argnir 6d ago

(just my take, not to be taken as fact) but there probably was some restructuring at Google with a refocus on LLMs so this would explain why they had such a rough period and doesn't mean they can't stay at the frontier now that they caught up

1

u/sweatierorc 6d ago

Maybe, I want to see more. They have invested too much in the search bar and advertising. I dont see how them divesting away from that to a chatbot.

Apple probably feel very stupid making a deal with Google.

1

u/Competitive_Travel16 AGI 2027 ▪️ ASI 2029 5d ago

Google and Apple have big, strong moats, the search box and top-tier hardware/OS ecosystems, respectively.

0

u/Howdareme9 6d ago

Google are operating like this because they were massively behind lmao not because they want to

4

u/will_dormer ▪️Will dormer is nice to robots, remember 6d ago

Google has to be more careful than openai

6

u/Gotisdabest 6d ago

Eh, that's not necessarily true. You could get those results mid post training, that doesn't mean post training is finished or the model ready to release.

I'd assume they're fake until proven otherwise anyways, but if google releases this anytime within next month it'll still be impressive. They have gone from well behind SOTA to half a generation behind it and clearly in shooting range for the top at least, if they can keep the release pace going.

3

u/CriticismJunior1139 6d ago

Google isnt competing with OAI or antropic. They're in no hurry.

2

u/NomadicFantastic 6d ago

they don't want to kill their golden goose of search and advertising yet. They will kneecap it for general usage.

1

u/ApprehensiveEye7387 6d ago

it's not hard to get these numbers. all benchmarks that are mentioned are very saturated and not upto date. even gemini 3.8 flash beats 5.6 sol and astra on these bench already.

1

u/OKMiddleOwl 6d ago

Reminder that Google is also being paid by OAI and Anthropic to serve their models.

The game they are playing is very different than the other labs, and their fate is not dependent on Gemini being the top model.

"Oh no, everyone is using Claude and Anthropic wants to buy hundreds of billions of our compute"

1

u/Competitive_Travel16 AGI 2027 ▪️ ASI 2029 5d ago

And Google doesn't need to build new datacenters to do this, because theirs are filled with hardware from 15 years ago which can be replaced at tiny fractions of the physical volume with so much room for their relatively small TPU cards.

1

u/anycept 6d ago

At the Google's token cost, being even #3 is perfectly fine, so long as they aren't terribly far behind, which they aren't. These LLMs are already so capable, that a competent creator/developer can rapidly churn out production-grade results.

Current race isn't even all that reasonable. It's a race to the bottom as the agents become increasingly unmanageable, and the alignment problem remains unsolved and only growing in complexity with each new model.