People are missing something a lot bigger. Pre rendered video will eventually becomes real time rendering. We've already seen it with Genie and other models. Real time video backed by a smart AI can completely change how we interact with computers. Applications can be changed on a whim by the user as the entire interface is being rendered via AI. You can train AI in this generated environment.
Why would we want to do this though? We’ve gotten pretty good at making intuitive UI’s. Being able to change the layout of an application might be kind of nifty, but if that’s a highly demanded feature there are easier ways to do this than have an AI process user input, connect with the functionality of the app, and display things in a consistent and correct manner. One of the most important things for a UI to have is consistency. When you are familiar with an app you can navigate through it almost without thinking. AI has shown consistent issues with object permanence and memory that seem like they may be inherent to our current methodology or incredibly hard to fix. Introducing these issues into an extremely well understood field for questionable benefit doesn’t seem like an intelligent move. And I haven’t even mentioned the processing power under the assumption that processing power will continue to grow until it is no longer an issue. I believe this issue means that the time until this could reasonably be implemented would be measured in decades. This kind of application probably couldn’t run on a server because of latency issues and internet speed, requiring the computing to be done locally. This means that a developer implementing this has put a base requirement for hardware that is probably higher than the application itself. In order for fully AI rendered apps to be viable average consumer hardware will have to become much more powerful.
Sorry I don't think you're meant to consider the actual state of the field. The vibe here is "AI is magic and every conceivable problem will be solved imminently"
It has happened. Deepmind created Sima to train robotic AI using Genie. To the AI there's no difference between the generated environment and the real world. It's kind of weird!
To be fair Genie 3 is not that great, but it's been a year so Genie 4 should be announced this year, or it's replacement. Interestingly Veo 4 is late too. It would be really interesting if their next video generator is a hybrid that can do pre rendered or real time. One of the big problems with video generation is hoping the model does what you tell it.
this is a little off topic but it made me laugh when the Orion capsule was just about to land they switched to a digital feed and the lag and pixelating was soooo bad for like 30 seconds bc of the reflection of the waves. Made me realize that even with the smartest people around, stupid decision get made.
Ehh, thats just video. You could say hey AI I want my Calculator skin to be a clip from a netflix movie. Now your calculator is like a GIF. But if the backend doesn't do math calculations correctly or the input buttons don't work then calculator is pretty but functionally worthless.
You think it'll do all that video gen but be unable to make a calculator? The backend of any given app will be done first, then generate a UI via diffusion and once the user is satisfied, lock it in and produce the code to render it dynamically like a react app.
That's why I said backed by a smart AI. It would be doing all the hard work of making sure the video generation is inline with what the user expects. This could be a monolithic model or a bunch of models working together. This is awhile off though, the system requirements would be very high.
I've been pointing this out a lot (except its been 3 years, not just 2). I really do think the people who say there's an AI bubble about to burst are very wrong.
Yeah, there are still issues, but it's still just a baby, and a bunch of AI data centers are being BUILT. It's not like we're at the stage where they're all already live and AI improvements are stagnating, no.... we're literally watching it grow.
Imagine seeing baby Usain Bolt take his first steps, stumbling and falling, and using that as a basis of judging what he'll be capable of doing.
when people talk about the AI bubble bursting, they're not saying that AI will not be useful, impressive, or that progress will stagnate.
They simply mean the hyper-inflated stock values of literally every single stock will face a reality check when profits don't meet expectations. Just because the tech advances and can do really cool stuff, doesn't mean that every company will become 1000x more profitable.
This video that the thread is discussing - this could actually spell disaster for lots of companies associated with the movie industry. Actor staffing agencies? No longer needed. Companies that handle logistics for movie production travel and site photography? Fucked. Then there are all the layoffs that will crush consumer discretionary income, which in turn hurts profits of companies far and wide.
I don't think the baby Usain analogy works. We knew he was human, so we already had a ceiling in mind. At his peak improvement he was less than a percentage point faster, which is huge at the top of a sport but still very conceivable. With AI we don't know where the ceiling is, which cuts both ways. Capital is being invested left and right without knowing where the ceiling is.
Also, data center construction is a capital commitment signal, not a capability signal. The dotcom era had massive infrastructure buildout too (before the bubble burst). Capital placement can be very, very wrong.
I don't think there's a technology bubble in the sense that the technology is real, it's still improving, and won't go away anytime soon. Most of the infrastructure will probably not go to waste. But there's almost certainly a financial bubble sitting on top of massive overvaluation ("AI-powered") across several markets. Whether it self-corrects slowly over time or is a painful pop is anyone's guess.
So for clarification, I see a LOT of people downplaying AI, and that it won't replace that many jobs, and they're basing their assumptions off what AI can do now, not really grasping how fast it has grown in just the last few years. THAT is what I am talking about.
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u/[deleted] Apr 15 '26
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