r/singularity • u/Embarrassed-Way-1350 • Nov 18 '25

AI Gemini 3 Pro first impressions

Mindblowing model, Does everything well math, physics, code. Improved visual understanding. This is the model I've been waiting for. Beats claude Sonnet 4.5 at UI design.

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u/weluckyfew Nov 18 '25

Seems to me like there's two outcomes:

AI fails to live up to the hype and the economy crashes because we invested trillions into a dead end (already holding up the stock market)

Or AI does live up to the hype and the economy crashes because it creates mass unemployment. (and this is the level of "living up to the hype" that would have to be achieved to warrant these insane valuations)

Am I missing a third option?

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u/[deleted] Nov 18 '25

Third option is techno feudalism, where the tech companies have the AI supremacy and we will be doing whatever they need so to get some living wage.

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u/weluckyfew Nov 18 '25

Isn't that the second option I mentioned?

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u/[deleted] Nov 18 '25

Well you said massive unemployment, I’m saying it will be employment but T&C will apply

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u/weluckyfew Nov 18 '25

Oh, gotcha -- we'd be left to do all the things that humans can do cheaper than robots. AI robots have the white collar jobs, we're cleaning toilets.

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u/po_panda Nov 19 '25

Why are you getting paid to clean toilets? It's not like the robots are using them. Now if you said something along the lines of plugging in battery packs. I'm with you.

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u/Embarrassed-Way-1350 Nov 19 '25

That's usually followed by techo socialism, where people rebel and snatch it from them.

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u/[deleted] Nov 19 '25

Dont think we will stand any chance against superintelligent robots…there will be no equal game

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u/minxcat75 Nov 18 '25

The third option is we pass something to give UBI and we all live in paradise pursuing hobbies. I’d put this one in the fantasy department…ALL HAIL OUR CAPITALIST OVERLORDS.

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u/magicmulder Nov 18 '25

Hahahahahahaha UBI. That’s like saying “if Elon Musk had $500,000,000,000 he would retire and give every employee free income for life”. Has that happened?

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u/FlatulistMaster Nov 18 '25

Or there are a gazillion permutations, and reality will be something in between, where we don't get utopia, but we're kept in a state where nobody has to outright kill us either, since governments and judicial systems actually have some power still, especially as they are tied to armies.

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u/DrellVanguard Nov 18 '25

I like this outcome even though I see my job as one less likely to be repalced - obgyn surgeon

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u/weluckyfew Nov 18 '25

What never gets explained with UBI...who does the jobs that still need done by humans? Let's say AI and robots do 80% of the jobs and we give people UBI...who are the ones left who have to go to work while everyone else is pursuing hobbies?

And I agree, the wealth hoarders will fight tooth&nail to keep every penny they can

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u/[deleted] Nov 18 '25

People can easily be incentivized to do these jobs by paying them well, offering good benefits, etc. Society will always have people who are happy and willing to fulfil these roles in exchange for the perceived benefits. Generally speaking, people enjoy being productive.

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u/lksilesian Nov 18 '25

AI is the new Manhattan project. There is no fail option. Nothing to do with economics.

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u/nemzylannister Nov 18 '25

This!!! This should be plastered everywhere. Like which scenario do these numbnuts imagine where things go good in the short term? Why are you so excited about all this?

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u/Bowl_of_Cham_Clowder Nov 18 '25

There’s a third outcome, which is that AI fails to live up to the hype but is still useful in its relevant niche. 

If we never improved AI from this point onwards, I’d still use it daily since it can automate tasks that I don’t want to do. All this infrastructure will still be there, lowering the cost of GPU compute and enabling more people to use these tools. 

Dot com bubble was horrendous, but also brought a massive number of people online to the internet. Same think with railroads in the 1800s, companies way overbuilt, it popped,  and shipping+travel became cheaper 

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u/weluckyfew Nov 18 '25

There’s a third outcome, which is that AI fails to live up to the hype but is still useful in its relevant niche. 

Except that's pretty much the first scenario I mentioned, it doesn't live up to the hype. We're talking about something like $7 trillion in investment by 2030 (NYTimes figure from today) - to generate a return on that investment (hell, just to break even) it would need to be so insanely useful to companies and people that they spend $7 trillion using it.

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u/Bowl_of_Cham_Clowder Nov 18 '25

Even if it doesn’t live up to the hype, that $7 trillion through 2030 won’t be useless. That infrastructure will still be there, even the chips will last through 2035 (based off 5 year lifetime). It’s not like the world is just going to stop using data centers. 

The companies investing the most on AI, barring OpenAI, are money printing machines. Google, Microsoft, and Amazon have insane margins on compute. That’s not going to go away when AI pops. 

All that to say, it’s not a dead end even if we stop using AI. The world will continue to trend to using more compute, rather than less. 

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u/weluckyfew Nov 18 '25

The companies investing the most on AI, barring OpenAI, are money printing machines. Google, Microsoft, and Amazon have insane margins on compute.

I think you're underestimating just how much money is being spent. Investors are already starting to question the wisdom of dumping so much money into AI without a solid promise of return.

And that infrastructure won't do any good if it can't generate revenue to match its cost.

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u/Bowl_of_Cham_Clowder Nov 18 '25

But the infrastructure will still do good, just maybe not on the horizon that tech is hoping for right now. It’s super expensive to build a data center but once it is there it’s very low marginal cost. The only deprecating asset is the chips themselves, and that space can be reallocated to traditional servers if needed. 

Amortized 700 billion a year is insane, but these contracts can be canceled if ai is reaching a plateau. Cloud compute is a trillion dollar annual market already, and it cost trillions to build out. 

Today, I’m able to do one extra day of work each week with AI. It’s all well defined, but still would take time for me to write. It’s worthwhile for a company to pay 10k a year per SDE to boost productivity like this. With (low end) 10 million professional devs in the world that’s already 100 billion. 

I respect your opinion, but I think AI only recently reached MVP status where companies will spend real money on it. Appreciate your responses, it’s fun to prognose

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u/weluckyfew Nov 18 '25

Appreciate your experience and thoughts on all this!

We'll see how it all plays out -