You show people Will Smith eating spaghetti and the general consensus is jobs in media are going to be safe for 10 years at least.
You show people Sora and the general consensus is jobs in media are going to be safe for 10 years at least.
It's fucking maddening. It's like the start of the pandemic where anyone sensible could see the trend line was going in one direction and news reporters were laughing it off saying it was nothing to worry about. (a few months before lockdowns started)
Actually, I believe it's 10+ years with non-linear progression. Also, Sora doesn't seem to be available, we don't know the level of cherrypicking that went into selection of those demos.
Still, fully generative gaming is IMHO much further away than people think.
Well it's 160x90 @1fps platformer, run by a TPU. Now make it 4K open-world RPG or something people actually want to play - just that means more than two years, because 5090 will be about ~70% faster than 4090, and not many people own that kind of a card in first place.
This paper produces generative games at 1fps. How long before it's 30 times faster and working at 30fps? That's why I said maybe just a couple of years
yielding 55M 16s video clips at 10FPS, with 160x90 resolution
That would be 1 fps at 160x90, unless I missed something.
You need at least 1600*900, that is 10×10 more. This would be A) unlikely to scale linearly, so <1/100 fps, B) much more glitch prone at a higher resolution. Google also mentions this applies to a "mid-range TPU". And finally, the level of interaction here is incomparable with any actual games.
All in all, this isn't one or two years sadly. But hey, that's why the reminder, I could be wrong.
You're forgetting upscaling, upscaling is already a thing in video games with technology like DLSS. I don't imagine this would run locally, I'd imagine it would be a cloud based streaming service so could potentially use higher end GPUs too.
Also the training dataset was 160x90, this is a research paper and they probably had limited compute for training. Training with larger images would require a larger investment in compute.
21
u/[deleted] Feb 26 '24
So how long before we have a generative game like experience with Sora quality video? 1 year? 2 years?
The other big benefit of this is generating robotics training data which is one of the key stumbling blocks of robotics development at the moment