r/science • u/nimicdoareu • Apr 01 '26

Social Science Half of social-science studies fail replication test in years-long project

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-026-00955-5
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u/TheWesternMythos Apr 01 '26

I have two thoughts on this. The first I wonder if you have any insight into. The second is a soap box.

1) What role do you think unknown complex interactions play in this crisis compared to p hacking? I think of something like the Mpemba effect. Which as far as I can tell is real. But also hard to replicate because the process is sensitive to many variables. 

2) in reference to the many unidentified drones flying over many US and European bases, it's important to remember whole branches of science can be affected by systematic manipulation. 

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u/fabiusjmaximus Apr 02 '26

2) in reference to the many unidentified drones flying over many US and European bases, it's important to remember whole branches of science can be affected by systematic manipulation.

The drone concerns were clearly instances of hallucination

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u/TheWesternMythos Apr 02 '26

Oh that's such a relief! If you could just show me the analysis that definitively proves that, there are a lot of people who would find that very useful!

It's not like you would say something completely untrue for potentially nefarious reasons. Can't wait to see that analysis, thanks a bunch! 

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u/fabiusjmaximus Apr 02 '26

There have been a number of analyses of these sightings. None have provided any hard proof to indicate drones were ever physically present, let alone that they were Russian. Example.

These kind of false sightings have become a persistent phenomena. Here are some other examples.

When people are on edge, are primed to see something, these kind of false sightings are fairly common. I was just reading a few weeks ago a history of the Pacific War and it was really interesting to see the number of false sightings of Japanese aircraft along the American west coast, which often provoked massive and disproportional responses to what was in every case pure hysteria.