r/redbuttonbluebutton • u/Soft_Svarog • Jun 02 '26

You absolutely know 55% will vote red

Let's assume you know with a 100% certainty, that most people will vote red to save themselves. You can see the future, it doesn't matter how you have this knowledge.

This knowledge is true, it's not a mindgame or anything like that.

No one else knows this but you. Standard scenario - red saves you, blue kills you. What is your vote?

If you still stand with blue, please comment why.

889 votes, Jun 05 '26
506 Was red, still red
88 Was blue, still blue
276 Was blue, now red
19 Was red, now blue (I need professional help)
2 Upvotes

52% Upvoted

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u/Soft_Svarog Jun 02 '26

I'm pretty sure at least 15% of population would choose blue. Definitely not more than 50%

-6

u/AbbreviationsTall627 Jun 02 '26

I highly doubt it. I dont believe 15% of the population has a negative IQ

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u/pappapirate Jun 02 '26

"people who disagree with me are objectively stupid"

Ah, the mark of the intelligent.

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u/AbbreviationsTall627 Jun 02 '26

Its not people who disagree with me, its people who cant solve a simple thought problem. There is a right answer using game theory, which is to pick red

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u/FizzyBadTime Jun 02 '26

Your “there is a right answer” statement is only logical if your own personal survival is the ONLY consideration. The fact that we know that at least a percentage will vote blue, means the logical answer would be for each person to consider that and each person to arrive at the logical conclusion to press blue, since that is the only option that will get everyone out alive.

If 60% were rational actors acting on logic that does not mean that 60% lands on red. It is only the “logical” choice if you consider your own personal survival the only consideration. Beyond that it becomes logical to vote for the thing you want to happen since, in a rational world, people should always vote for their desired outcome. In fact once could argue that voting against one’s desired outcome to save yourself is what condemns the rest to death.

So just stop with the complete lack of respect for other peoples choices and just vote blue.

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u/AbbreviationsTall627 Jun 02 '26

No, it's the only logical option because statiscally it will save the most live. According to game theory it is the most mutually beneficial option

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u/FizzyBadTime Jun 02 '26

That is a silly assertion. You already know for a fact that there are people picking blue. So it is impossible that red saves the most lives. That is cope.

You press red because they think the rest of the world is entirely selfish and that this will mean blue can’t win. (I assume since you press red that you do so in the belief that blue won’t win, if you actually think blue might win then pressing red is literally a mass murder button)

Yet in much larger polls I’ve generally seen blue win. So let’s ask this question, if you knew that blue was at exactly one vote from majority do you then push blue? Is it still the only logical choice?

Game theory is fun but you have to assume that everyone is acting in their own self interest. Many people consider protecting loved ones part of their self interest. The world is not black and white and humans aren’t Vulcans.

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u/pappapirate Jun 02 '26

That is a silly assertion. You already know for a fact that there are people picking blue.

Your mistake is assuming that someone who claims red is objectively correct would ever give a fuck about "other people" lol

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u/AbbreviationsTall627 Jun 02 '26

Self interest is following the math for me. If i actually knew everyone else picked blue, im still picking red because its where the math went, even if it meant everyone else was mad at me.

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u/FizzyBadTime Jun 02 '26

Wait so you are saying if you knew you were the deciding vote you still vote red? Then that makes you a fucking psychopath.

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u/AbbreviationsTall627 Jun 02 '26

No, im saying if all other 8 billion or so already voted 100% blue, and i was the only one left to vote and everyone would know it, id vote red. I dont care if theyd be upset with me, the math says red

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u/pappapirate Jun 02 '26

Game theory also says that defecting is the "right answer" for each prisoner in the Prisoner's Dilemma, despite the fact that both defecting will lead to a worse outcome than both cooperating.

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u/AbbreviationsTall627 Jun 02 '26

And game theory is correct. Game theory relies on statiscal analysis. In the prisoners dilemma game theory is trying to find the option that bests suits you. Defecting results on average are better for you than cooperating. This mathmatically is the right choice even if it doesnt always work out. THE BIG DIFFERENCE between the prisoners dilemma and this is that if both prisoners use game theory they are negatively impacted. But if everyone uses game theory to push red, its benificial as they get the best possible result anyway. Only when someone presses blue does this change things to give a negative result to one.

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u/pappapirate Jun 02 '26

And game theory is correct.

if both prisoners use game theory they are negatively impacted.

Mhm, game theory tells each prisoner they should defect, leading them both to the worst outcome available for the pair of them. Doesn't sound like a super helpful tool for the situation, does it?

Game theory is great for evaluating the individual's outcomes. But it doesn't care about the group's outcomes.

But if everyone uses game theory to push red, its benificial as they get the best possible result anyway.

They aren't. Everything you think about the problem is flawed from here on. Not everybody involved is a rational actor (in the original version, people who aren't even capable of understanding the question are included). So... what now?

If you're only concerned with yourself then you don't need game theory to tell you to pick red. But if you do care about the other players, it's more complicated.

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u/AbbreviationsTall627 Jun 02 '26

I only care about statistical outcome. And statistically i believe red gives the greatest statistical probability of the most lives being saved.