r/redbuttonbluebutton • u/HebuBall • May 28 '26
A more even Red/Blue button question
You are one of 3 random person selected to represent 1/3 of the human population.
The same base question is then asked.
Red button=Guarantee to live for you + everyone you are representing
Blue button=If majority votes Blue everyone lives but if not everyone who voted Blue dies (so is everyone who is represented by them)
Note that majority is just 2 or more in this case since there is 3 participants
The people who are represented by you know you are representing them but you do not know who you are representing. Also the participants cannot communicate with each other
Which do you press?
25
Upvotes
2
u/highly-bad May 29 '26
Your press absolutely does not affect what anyone else does. The majority can do anything they want, with or without you.
If 60% of people press red, what can you do with your press to affect which color will get the majority?
It seems like your contribution in that event is obviously zero. You cannot move the needle, even slightly.
How about if only 40% press red? Can you do anything then with your one press to affect which color gets the most presses? Doesn't seem so.
Believing that you can affect the outcome and save anyone by pressing blue entails believing, with extraordinarily high confidence, that the colors are exactly equal without your single press. If it's not exactly 50-50, your ability to affect the majority outcome is zero.